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View from The Hill: Could One Nation be the unofficial opposition at the 2028 poll?

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · · 829 words · By Michelle Grattan
Internal Liberal Party Conflict Rise of One Nation Political instability of the Coalition
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What to know about Internal Liberal Party Conflict

The article discusses recent polling suggesting a surge in support for One Nation, potentially positioning it as the primary opposition to the Labor party by 2028. It also examines the internal dynamics of the Liberal Party, specifically the appointment of Tony Abbott as federal president and the leadership challenges facing Angus Taylor.

Propaganda risk 30%
Claims checked 11
Techniques found 2
Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Right coverage
Left50%
Center50%
Right0%

2 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Despite One Nation having only two House of Representatives seats, politically-savvy observers now believe it is possible the insurgent party could be the de facto opposition that Labor faces in 2028.

Why it matters

Two Redbridge polls have carried this message.

Common ground

The first, a seat-by-seat mapping of the country, published by the Australian Financial Review last month, suggested that in an election held now, the Coalition would be almost wiped out by the One Nation surge.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Name Calling / Labeling: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

The article discusses recent polling suggesting a surge in support for One Nation, potentially positioning it as the primary opposition to the Labor party by 2028. It also examines the internal dynamics of the Liberal Party, specifically the appointment of Tony Abbott as federal president and the leadership challenges facing Angus Taylor.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-could-one-nation-be-the-unofficia…

analyticsAnalysis

30%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 90%
Minor concerns. Some persuasive language detected, but largely factual.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 2 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning
Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.
Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.
warning
Name Calling / Labeling 70% confidence
Attaching a negative label to a person or group to reject them without evidence.
Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.
Why it matters: Recognizing name calling / labeling helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 11 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

info Single Source 4
check_circle Corroborated 4
verified Verified By Reference 1
help Insufficient Evidence 1
schedule Pending 1
info
Claim 1: “One Nation... up four points in a month, while both Labor and the Coalition went backwards.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence mentions One Nation's surge and primary vote lead, but the specific 'four points in a month' metric is not explicitly confirmed in the provided snippets.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — 7 days ago · Meanwhile, the Allan government is in trouble in Victoria ahead of November's state election.
https://theconversation.com/latest-polls-still-have-one-nati…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Pauline Hanson's One Nation (PHON), commonly known as One Nation (ON), is a far-right populist political party in Australia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Nation
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — 8 hours ago · A poll is a snapshot, not a seat count. Going from 30% primary vote to becoming the official opposition would require one of the biggest ...
https://www.facebook.com/TheProjectTV/posts/a-new-demosau-po…
info
Claim 2: “When Pauline Hanson arrived in the House of Representatives in 1996, she was regarded as a political outsider, disendorsed by the Liberals for racist comments.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided search results for 'Pauline' are generic (names, theology, Mario characters) and do not provide the political history of Pauline Hanson's disendorsement in 1996.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Proto-orthodox Christianity, which is rooted in the first centuries of the history of Christianity, relies heavily on Pauline theology and beliefs and considers them to be amplifications and explanati…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pauline_Christianity
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Jun 16, 2026 · Pauline is the damsel-in-distress in the arcade game Donkey Kong, the installment that marked her debut in both the Donkey Kong and Super Mario franchises, along with Mario and her titu…
https://www.mariowiki.com/Pauline
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Pauline is a female given name. It was originally the French form of Paulina, a female version of Paulinus, a variant of Paulus meaning the little, hence the younger.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pauline_(given_name)
info
Claim 3: “a senator, leading a party with just six seats in total, including both houses”
SINGLE SOURCE
One source mentions One Nation having four seats in the Senate, but the total count of six seats across both houses is not independently corroborated in the provided snippets.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — May 29, 2025 ... Pauline Hanson is not One Nation in it's entirety. Have a look at policies on water rights, natural resource exports taxation, personal tax ...
https://www.facebook.com/sbsnews/posts/the-win-means-one-nat…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Pauline Hanson's One Nation (PHON), commonly known as One Nation (ON), is a far-right populist political party in Australia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Nation
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — The House of Representatives is the lower house of the bicameral Parliament of Australia, the upper house being the Senate. Its composition and powers are ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_House_of_Representa…
check_circle
Claim 4: “The latest poll, taken in the wake of the budget and published by the AFR on Sunday, has One Nation ahead of Labor (for the first time) and the Coalition continuing to languish.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results from May/June 2026 report that new polling (including RedBridge/AFR) shows One Nation leading Labor in primary support.
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2024 Queensland state election was held on 26 October 2024 to elect all members to the Legislative Assembly of Queensland pursuant to the Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015. A…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Queensland_state_election
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2026 Victorian state election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and individu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_V…
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls, often for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary v…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_A…
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
Claim 5: “The first, a seat-by-seat mapping of the country, published by the Australian Financial Review last month, suggested that in an election held now, the Coalition would be almost wiped out by the One Nation surge.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While web results mention RedBridge and the AFR, the specific detail about a 'seat-by-seat mapping' suggesting the Coalition would be 'almost wiped out' is not explicitly corroborated by the provided evidence snippets.
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — Kosmos Samaras (born 1970/1971) is a Greek-Australian lobbyist, pollster, and former Victorian Labor strategist. He helped run Labor's state election campaigns for 14 years before departing in 2019 to…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kos_Samaras
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2026 Victorian state election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and individu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_V…
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls, often for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary v…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_A…
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
Claim 6: “As preferred prime minister, Pauline Hanson trails Anthony Albanese 25% to 31%, with Angus Taylor on 14%.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Web results mention polling for the next election and preferred leaders, but the specific percentages (31%, 25%, 14%) for Albanese, Hanson, and Taylor are not present in the provided evidence.
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — Pauline Hanson's Please Explain is an Australian animated conservative political satire web series that is produced by Stepmates Studios, a Melbourne-based production company, for Pauline Hanson's One…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pauline_Hanson's_Please_Explai…
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls, often for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary v…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_A…
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — A by-election was held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of Parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer. One Nation candidate David Farley was elected, defeating independent …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Farrer_by-election
+ 3 more evidence sources
help
Claim 7: “A senior minister in the Morrison government”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found for this claim in the provided search results.
check_circle
Claim 8: “One Nation having only two House of Representatives seats”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent news sources (The Conversation, Flipboard, The Guardian) explicitly state that One Nation has two seats in the House of Representatives.
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — The House of Representatives is the lower house of the bicameral Parliament of Australia, the upper house being the Senate. Its composition and powers are set out in Chapter I of the Constitution of A…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_House_of_Representa…
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — Since it was formed in 1997, Pauline Hanson's One Nation has had a number of elected representatives at the federal, state and local level in Australia. As of June 2018, more than two-thirds of all el…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_One_Nation_elected_rep…
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — Pauline Hanson's One Nation (PHON), commonly known as One Nation (ON), is a far-right populist political party in Australia. It is led by its founder Pauline Hanson, who has been a senator for Queensl…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Nation
+ 4 more evidence sources
schedule
Claim 9: “installing Tony Abbott as their federal president”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
check_circle
Claim 10: “One Nation’s primary vote was 31% to Labor’s 28% with the Coalition at 20%.”
CORROBORATED
A web search result explicitly mentions a RedBridge/Accent poll commissioned by the AFR that put One Nation at 31% of the national primary vote.
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — Kosmos Samaras (born 1970/1971) is a Greek-Australian lobbyist, pollster, and former Victorian Labor strategist. He helped run Labor's state election campaigns for 14 years before departing in 2019 to…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kos_Samaras
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2026 Victorian state election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and individu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_V…
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls, often for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary v…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_A…
+ 3 more evidence sources
check_circle
Claim 11: “Two Redbridge polls have carried this message.”
CORROBORATED
Web search results mention two polls published in the same week, specifically identifying a RedBridge/Accent poll commissioned by the AFR.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Jun 4, 2026 ... First was a RedBridge/Accent poll commissioned by the Australian Financial Review which put One Nation at 31% of the national primary vote (up ...
https://www.facebook.com/OneNationParty/posts/one-nation-com…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Jun 2, 2026 ... Labor held a primary vote lead in Fox & Hedgehog. If the polls are ranked by the overall vote for One Nation and the Coalition, the F&H poll is ...
https://theconversation.com/one-nation-surges-to-first-on-pr…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Labor maintains a clear two-party advantage over One Nation and the Coalition, but their combined vote has increased by two points.
https://search.informit.org/doi/full/10.3316/informit.T20260…
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.