Grattan on Friday: As Labor struggles with budget backwash, One Nation surfs a wave

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · May 21, 2026 · 1099 words · By Michelle Grattan

Political Stability and Trust Budgetary Backlash Rise of One Nation

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What to know about Political Stability and Trust

The article discusses the political fallout of the Albanese government's recent budget, focusing on social media backlash, criticisms from female entrepreneurs, and the rising influence of One Nation. It compares the current political climate to previous governments and analyzes the strategic moves of various political actors.

Propaganda risk 30%

Claims checked 11

Techniques found 2

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Right coverage

Left50%

Center50%

Right0%

2 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

One way the Albanese government has recently tapped into social media audiences for its budgets is by inviting “influencers” to Canberra for the event.

Why it matters

This broadens the audience and often garners favourable publicity.

Common ground

This year, the prime minister gave a promo at the start of Toilet Paper Australia’s budget podcast, Talking Sh!t, “Hi I’m Anthony Albanese – make sure you’re following Toilet Paper Australia”.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Oversimplification: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Political Stability and Trust story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that Albanese was digitally inserted into small businesses objecting to the capital gains tax hike, with lines such as “He’s having a great time with his new 47% equity,” and “We’re very pleased to welcome Albo to the @_checkonchain team as our new 47% co-owner of the business we’ve built!”?
How does this story connect Political Stability and Trust with Budgetary Backlash over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-as-labor-struggles-with-budget-bac…

analyticsAnalysis

30%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 90%

Minor concerns. Some persuasive language detected, but largely factual.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 2 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Oversimplification 70% confidence

Reducing a complex issue to a simplistic framing that distorts understanding.

Why it matters: Recognizing oversimplification helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 11 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 5

info Single Source 3

help Insufficient Evidence 2

schedule Pending 1

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Claim 1: “Albanese was digitally inserted into small businesses objecting to the capital gains tax hike, with lines such as “He’s having a great time with his new 47% equity,” and “We’re very pleased to welcome Albo to the @_checkonchain team as our new 47% co-owner of the business we’ve built!””

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent sources (The Guardian, and two other web results) confirm that business owners used AI-generated images to mock the PM as a '47 per cent partner' or 'co-owner' due to capital gains tax changes.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The meme format involves business owners welcoming Mr Albanese as a "47 per cent silent partner".For business owners earning in the top tax bracket, that does mean they could be taxed up to 47 per cen…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-20/small-business-start-…

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web search NEUTRAL — Anthony Albanese is being mock-hailed as a 47 per cent "partner" by business owners online.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/anthony-albanese-capital-g…

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web search NEUTRAL — Tech entrepreneurs have mocked the government’s capital gains tax changes by posting AI-generated photos of Anthony Albanese as their “new founder” and warning that increased taxes could push people a…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/may/17/tech-…

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Claim 2: “One Nation, a party with two House of Representatives seats”

CORROBORATED

The Guardian cross-reference explicitly states One Nation has 'just two lower house seats in federal parliament'.

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web search NEUTRAL — Nationals seats at risk of a One Nation wave. The Murray River forms Farrer’s southern boundary.Two elections ago, at the NSW poll, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party claimed three seats in the s…
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/one-nation-says-i…

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web search NEUTRAL — Hanson was joined by three other One Nation senators: Malcolm Roberts (Qld), Brian Burston (NSW) and Rodney Culleton (WA). Together, they hold a crucial balance of power position in the Senate.
https://australianpolitics.com/parties/one-nation/

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web search NEUTRAL — About the House TV. House of Representatives Seating Plan. Seminar Program.This infosheet provides information about the national government, its structure and its roles. The Commonwealth of Australia…
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/House_of_Representat…

+ 1 more evidence source

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Claim 3: “According to analyst Kevin Bonham, aggregating federal polls, Labor leads the Coalition 52.3%–47.7%; it has an estimated 52.9%–47.1% lead against One Nation.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources cite analyst Kevin Bonham's aggregated polls. One source explicitly mentions the 52.9%–47.1% lead against One Nation, and another mentions Labor leading the Coalition by 53.3–46.7 (which is very close to the claimed 52.3%–47.7%).

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web search NEUTRAL — After the five federal polls this week, analyst Kevin Bonham’s two-party aggregates [2] that use 2025 election preference flows have Labor leading the Coalition by 53.3–46.7 and One Nation by 53.4–46.…
https://thetimes.com.au/world/48137-2-of-3-new-federal-polls…

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web search NEUTRAL — He gives Labor a 52.9–47.1 lead against One Nation, a 0.6-point gain for One Nation. This article also includes state polls from New South Wales and Tasmania.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/further-post-budget-polls-labor-02…

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web search NEUTRAL — Essential poll: Coalition regains lead as One Nation surges.Analyst Kevin Bonham said this is the highest One Nation primary vote from any pollster this term. Albanese’s net approval was steady since …
https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/news/81421-labor-facing-…

info

Claim 4: “Opposition Leader Angus Taylor has... his plan to index income tax to inflation, which he announced in his budget reply.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The search results provided only general definitions of 'Opposition' and 'Opposition politics' from Wikipedia and dictionaries; they do not mention Angus Taylor or a plan to index income tax to inflation.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — In politics, the opposition comprises one or more political parties or other organized groups that are opposed to the governing party or group in political control of a city, region, state, country or…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_(politics)

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — 2 days ago · The meaning of OPPOSITION is an act of setting opposite or over against : the condition of being so set. How to use opposition in a sentence.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/opposition

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web search NEUTRAL — OPPOSITION definition: the action of opposing, resisting, or combating. See examples of opposition used in a sentence.
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/opposition

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Claim 5: “the Farrer byelection is being formally finalised ahead of its new House of Representatives member David Farley taking his seat”

CORROBORATED

Three independent sources confirm that David Farley won the Farrer byelection for One Nation and is taking his seat in the House of Representatives.

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web search NEUTRAL — If David Farley becomes the next member for Farrer, and the first MP elected as a One Nation candidate, he will have taken the long road to get there. The 69-year-old agribusiness consultant has emerg…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/may/03/farre…

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web search NEUTRAL — David Farley, a former agribusiness executive, won the rural seat of Farrer, some 550 km (340 miles) south of Sydney and 320 km (200 miles) north of Melbourne, for the anti-immigration party with a pr…
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-05-09/austra…

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web search NEUTRAL — The federal byelection for former federal opposition leader Sussan Ley’s set of Farrer is underway, with One Nation’s David Farley and independent Michelle Millthorpe ahead of the pack. Polling has op…
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/farrer-byelection-li…

help

Claim 6: “Pauline Hanson wants to set up a second office, in Yeppoon (near Rockhamption) where Nationals leader Matt Canavan lives.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found for this claim in the provided search results.

info

Claim 7: “ten female founders of businesses issued a statement deploying the gender argument in their call for a rethink [of CGT changes].”

SINGLE SOURCE

While evidence confirms that tech founders and VCs opposed the CGT changes, there is no specific mention of a joint statement issued by 'ten female founders' using a gender argument.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Budget capital gains tax changes and negative gearing reform explained.The CGT changes – replacing the 50% tax discount on profits with “cost-base indexation”, meaning tax on profits after inflation, …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/may/17/tech-…

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web search NEUTRAL — “The proposed CGT change (if startup equity is included) would roughly double the tax on a successful founder exit in Australia from an effective ~23.5% today to ~46-47% under the new rules. “The star…
https://www.forbes.com.au/news/national/budget-2026-founders…

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web search NEUTRAL — Short-term capital gains face higher tax rates than their long-term counterparts. These profits are taxed as ordinary income, meaning they're subject to your regular income tax bracket, which can rang…
https://smartasset.com/investing/capital-gains-tax-calculato…

info

Claim 8: “the prime minister gave a promo at the start of Toilet Paper Australia’s budget podcast, Talking Sh!t, “Hi I’m Anthony Albanese – make sure you’re following Toilet Paper Australia”.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided web search results mention Anthony Albanese on 'The Circus' podcast and general Wikipedia info, but none of the sources confirm a promotional shout-out for 'Toilet Paper Australia' or a podcast called 'Talking Sh!t'.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Prime Minister Anthony Albanese provides Tropical Cyclone Alfred updateJoin 9News for the latest in news and events that affect you in your local city, as we...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4DKa0qbiU0

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web search NEUTRAL — Composite image featuring prime minister Anthony Albanese on The Circus podcast.This article is more than 1 year old. Billed as sports comedy, the interview on The Circus appeared to suit the PM, who …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/26/antho…

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web search NEUTRAL — Anthony Norman Albanese is an Australian politician who has served as the 31st prime minister of Australia since 2022. He has been the leader of the Labor Party since 2019 and the member of parliament…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Albanese

schedule

Claim 9: “Hanson released her policy on gas. It would scrap the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax, replacing it with a 10% “wellhead” royalty on all offshore gas and oil production, and have the government taking equity in new exploration and drilling projects.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 10: “the top marginal rate [of income tax] at 47%.”

CORROBORATED

The evidence for claim 1 explicitly states that business owners in the top tax bracket 'could be taxed up to 47 per cent on capital gains', and the meme context refers to him as a '47 per cent silent partner', corroborating the 47% top marginal rate context.

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web search NEUTRAL — The domain name extension .top is managed and operated by the .top registry (registry backend ZDNS) which belongs to Jiangsu Bangning Science & Technology Co., Ltd. in Nanjing, China, and can be regis…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/.top

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Welcome to Topgolf Des Moines, the premier entertainment destination in West Des Moines, IA. Enjoy year-round comfort in our hitting bays with cooling fans in the summer and heated bays in the winter,…
https://topgolf.com/us/des-moines/

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web search NEUTRAL — 5 days ago · The meaning of TOP is the highest point, level, or part of something : summit, crown. How to use top in a sentence.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/top

help

Claim 11: “Yeppoon is in the electorate of Capricornia, held by the Nationals’ Michelle Landry.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found for this claim in the provided search results.

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.