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US will see below-average 2026 hurricane season with up to 14 named storms, Noaa predicts

The Guardian · 🇬🇧 public United Kingdom · · 546 words · By Dharna Noor
Hurricane Season Forecasting Government Budget and Staffing Cuts Climate Change Impact
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What to know about Hurricane Season Forecasting

The US will see a below-normal hurricane season in 2026, federal government scientists said on Thursday, predicting eight to 14 named storms with winds at 39mph or more.

Claims checked 11
Techniques found 2
Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage
Left17%
Center66%
Right17%

6 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

The US will see a below-normal hurricane season in 2026, federal government scientists said on Thursday, predicting eight to 14 named storms with winds at 39mph or more.

Why it matters

The season has a “55% chance of being below normal, 35% chance of near normal and a 10% chance of above normal,” said Neil Jacobs, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) administrator, at a press conference.

Common ground

Of the eight to 14 named storms, one to three hurricanes are expected to become category 3 to 5, with winds at 111mph or more.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Appeal to Fear: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/21/hurricane-season-2026-noaa

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 2 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning
Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.
Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.
warning
Appeal to Fear 60% confidence
Building support by instilling anxiety or panic in the audience.
Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.
Why it matters: Recognizing appeal to fear helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 11 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

info Single Source 4
help Insufficient Evidence 2
check_circle Corroborated 2
cancel Disputed 1
schedule Pending 1
verified Verified By Reference 1
help
Claim 1: “Colorado State University predicts about three-quarters of the typical storm activity in a season, with projected 13 named storms, six developing into hurricanes and three of those strengthening into category 3 or stronger storms.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found after searching for this claim.
info
Claim 2: “Noaa’s flagship weather model, the American Global Forecast System, has shown a decline in skill, pushing it back to 2019 levels of confidence”
SINGLE SOURCE
The claim regarding the GFS model's decline in skill to 2019 levels is explicitly stated in The Guardian search result, but not corroborated by the general Wikipedia or NCEI pages provided.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — The forecast skill generally decreases with time (as with any numerical weather prediction model) and for longer term forecasts, only the larger scales retain significant accuracy. It is one of the pr…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Noaa’s flagship weather model, the American Global Forecast System, has shown a decline in skill, pushing it back to 2019 levels of confidence, he added.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/21/hurricane-se…
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web search NEUTRAL — Weather and Climate Models. Global Forecast System (GFS).The NOAA Big Data Program also provides access to gridded 0.25°- and 0.5°-resolution analysis and forecast data in a trailing 30-day window in …
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/weather-climate-models/gl…
cancel
Claim 3: “In the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, he said, forecasters predict a 70% chance of above normal activity, with 15 to 22 named storms, nine to 14 hurricanes, five to nine major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and five to 13 tropical cyclones in the central Pacific.”
DISPUTED
The claim states a 70% chance of above-normal activity with 15-22 named storms. However, AccuWeather's forecast (another source) predicts 17-22 named storms but does not mention the 70% probability, and the provided evidence for the Guardian article does not explicitly list these specific Pacific numbers in the snippet.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Of the eight to 14 named storms, one to three hurricanes are expected to become category 3 to 5, forecasters expect. Photograph: Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/21/hurricane-se…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Hurricane forecasters to release first tropical outlook. What to know. On Friday, May 15, the National Hurricane Center begins issuing tropical outlooks for the Atlantic. On the same day, the Eastern …
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2026/05/12/nhc-fi…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — AccuWeather’s 2026 Eastern Pacific forecast calls for 17 to 22 named storms, nine to 13 hurricanes, four to eight major hurricanes, and six to nine direct impacts to Mexico or Central America.
https://www.vallartadaily.com/premium/mexico-pacific-hurrica…
info
Claim 4: “The Trump administration has overseen staffing cuts which have forced the National Weather Service (NWS) to scale back satellites and balloon launches”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence for this claim consists of general biographical information about Donald Trump or a defense bill; there is no evidence provided regarding NWS staffing cuts or satellite/balloon launch reductions.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — 1Early life and education. 2Business career. Toggle Business career subsection. 2.1Real estate. 2.1.1Manhattan and Chicago developments. 2.1.2Atlantic City casinos. 2.1.3Golf clubs. 2.2Licensing the T…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Stay informed and read the latest breaking news and updates on Donald Trump from AP News, the definitive source for independent journalism.
https://apnews.com/hub/donald-trump
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Dec 11, 2025 · Defense bill: The House on Wednesday approved a $900 billion defense policy bill that would give U.S. troops a raise and codify much of President Trump’s national security agenda.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12/10/us/trump-news
info
Claim 5: “Of the eight to 14 named storms, one to three hurricanes are expected to become category 3 to 5, with winds at 111mph or more.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While the general forecast is corroborated, the specific detail about 1 to 3 hurricanes becoming category 3 to 5 is only explicitly found in the Guardian search result provided in the evidence for claim 5 (which refers back to the same story). Other sources mention the season but not this specific breakdown.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season event in the Northern Hemisphere. The season will officially begin on June 1, 2026, and end on November 30, 2026. These dat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Atlantic_hurricane_season
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of Iowa. Incumbent Republican governor Kim Reynolds declined to seek re-election to a third term. Primary e…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iowa_gubernatorial_electi…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Alaska. A nonpartisan primary election will b…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elec…
+ 3 more evidence sources
schedule
Claim 6: “Meanwhile, Accuweather expects a near-or-below average season, with 11 to 16 named storms, up to seven of which could develop into hurricanes.”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
check_circle
Claim 7: “The US will see a below-normal hurricane season in 2026, federal government scientists said on Thursday, predicting eight to 14 named storms with winds at 39mph or more.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent web sources (The Guardian, CBS News, and another news source) confirm the prediction of a below-normal 2026 season with 8 to 14 named storms.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Since 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel have been engaged in a war with Iran and its regional allies. The conflict began when the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, targeting mili…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections are scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as part of the 2026 midterm elections during President Donald Trump's second nonconsecu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Re…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The following is a list of events of the year 2026 in the United States, as well as predicted and scheduled events that have not yet occurred. July 4, 2026, will be the 250th anniversary of the signin…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_the_United_States
+ 3 more evidence sources
help
Claim 8: “Trump officials have also presided over big cuts to emergency management services”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found after searching for this claim.
info
Claim 9: “Three to six storms will also develop into category 1 hurricanes, with winds at 74mph or more, the forecasters expect.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The specific prediction of 3 to 6 category 1 hurricanes is mentioned in The Guardian result, but not corroborated by the other provided sources.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Forecast or derived words may refer to:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecast
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. These forecasts can later be compared with actual outcomes. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecasting
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A meteorologist is a scientist who studies and works in the field of meteorology aiming to understand or predict Earth's atmospheric phenomena including the weather. Those who study meteorological phe…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteorologist
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
Claim 10: ““There’s a 98% chance of El Niño conditions occurring later this season, and an 80% chance that this El Niño will be moderate to strong,” said Jacobs.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The provided Wikipedia results for this claim are completely irrelevant (discussing a singer and Spanish films) and do not contain the statement attributed to Neil Jacobs.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — María Concepción Balboa Buika (born 11 May 1972), known as Concha Buika or just Buika, is a Spanish singer. Her album Niña de Fuego was nominated for the 2008 Latin Grammy Award for Album of the Year …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concha_Buika
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A list of Spanish-produced and co-produced feature films released or scheduled for release in Spain in 2025. When applicable, the domestic theatrical release date is favoured.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Spanish_films_of_2025
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Motomami is the third studio album by Spanish singer Rosalía. It was released on 18 March 2022 through Columbia Records. Rosalía enlisted producers Noah Goldstein, Michael Uzowuru, Dylan Wiggins and …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motomami
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Claim 11: “The season has a “55% chance of being below normal, 35% chance of near normal and a 10% chance of above normal,” said Neil Jacobs, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) administrator”
CORROBORATED
The specific probability percentages (55% below normal, 35% near normal, 10% above normal) are reported by both The Guardian and another independent web source. Neil Jacobs is confirmed as the NOAA Administrator via Wikipedia.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Since 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel have been engaged in a war with Iran and its regional allies. The conflict began when the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, targeting mili…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Hurricane Dorian–Alabama controversy, also referred to as Sharpiegate, arose from a tweet made by then-U.S. president Donald Trump on September 1, 2019, as Hurricane Dorian approached the U.S. mai…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dorian–Alabama_contr…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Neil Andrew Jacobs, Jr. (born December 12, 1973) is an American scientist the current Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Jacobs
+ 3 more evidence sources
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.