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Australia’s south-east set for drier and hotter winter as BoM forecasts potential El Niño

The Guardian · · 584 words · By Graham Readfearn
Climate Change Impact
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/27/weather-australia-el-nino…

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Loaded Language 40% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

14 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

check_circle Corroborated 8
schedule Pending 4
help Insufficient Evidence 2
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“Large parts of south-east Australia look set for drier and hotter conditions over the next three months as a potential El Niño weather phenomenon takes shape in the Pacific Ocean.”
CORROBORATED
The claim is directly supported by a web search result from The Guardian stating that 'Large parts of south-east Australia look set for drier and hotter conditions over the next three months as a potential El Niño weather phenomenon takes shape in the Pacific Ocean.' This is corroborated by other web search results discussing the potential for El Niño to cause hotter and drier conditions in the region.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2014–2016 El Niño was the strongest El Niño event on record, with unusually warm waters developing between the coast of South America and the International Date Line. These unusually warm waters i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–2016_El_Niño_event
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Australia are present across most of Australia, particularly the north and the east, and are one of the main climate drivers of the country. Associated w…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_El_Niño–Souther…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Much of Queensland and New South Wales are forecast to have lower than usual rainfall in May, June and July, with almost the entire country likely to experience hotter than average maximum temperatures.”
CORROBORATED
The claim is directly supported by a web search result stating: 'Much of Queensland and New South Wales are forecast to have lower than usual rainfall in May, June and July, with almost the entire country likely to experience hotter than average maximum temperatures.'
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Colony of New South Wales was a colony of the British Empire from 1788 to 1901, when it became a State of the Commonwealth of Australia. At its greatest extent, the colony of New South Wales inclu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colony_of_New_South_Wales
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — New South Wales (commonly abbreviated as NSW) is a state on the east coast of Australia. It borders Queensland to the north, Victoria to the south, and South Australia to the west. Its coast borders t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_Wales
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The New South Wales rugby league team has represented the Australian state of New South Wales in rugby league football since the sport's beginnings there in 1907. Also known as the Blues due to their …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_Wales_rugby_league_t…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“The World Meteorological Organization said last week there was an increasing chance of an El Niño developing in the Pacific – a phenomenon that historically has increased the chances of hotter and drier conditions for Australia’s east.”
CORROBORATED
The claim is directly supported by a web search result citing The World Meteorological Organization: 'The World Meteorological Organization said last week there was an increasing chance of an El Niño developing in the Pacific – a phenomenon that historically has increased the chances of hotter and drier conditions for Australia’s east.'
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2014–2016 El Niño was the strongest El Niño event on record, with unusually warm waters developing between the coast of South America and the International Date Line. These unusually warm waters i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–2016_El_Niño_event
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2023–2024 El Niño was regarded as the fifth-most powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation event in recorded history, resulting in widespread droughts, flooding and other natural disasters across the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023–2024_El_Niño_event
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation on atmospheric science, climatology, hydrology and geophys…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Meteorological_Organizat…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“El Niño events also tend to push up global temperatures, with some climate experts saying an event later this year could help set global heat records in 2027.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results discuss the potential for El Niño to affect global temperatures and mention future years, with one source specifically predicting 2027 could be a record year based on historical lags.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2023–2024 El Niño was regarded as the fifth-most powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation event in recorded history, resulting in widespread droughts, flooding and other natural disasters across the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023–2024_El_Niño_event
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Ángel Muñoz García (Spanish: [ˈaŋxel muˈɲoθ ɣaɾˈθia]; born 11 September 1994), better known as by his stage name Jordi El Niño Polla ("Jordi 'The Dick Boy'"), often shortened to Jordi ENP, is a Spanis…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordi_El_Niño_Polla
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“El Niño is characterised by warmer than usual ocean waters in the tropical Pacific and a weakening or reversal of easterly trade winds which can both keep cloud and rain away from Australia’s east.”
CORROBORATED
The claim is directly supported by a web search result stating: 'El Niño is characterised by warmer than usual ocean waters in the tropical Pacific and a weakening or reversal of easterly trade winds which can both keep cloud and rain away from Australia’s east.' This definition aligns with the general scientific understanding provided in the web search results.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2014–2016 El Niño was the strongest El Niño event on record, with unusually warm waters developing between the coast of South America and the International Date Line. These unusually warm waters i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–2016_El_Niño_event
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Australia are present across most of Australia, particularly the north and the east, and are one of the main climate drivers of the country. Associated w…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_El_Niño–Souther…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“The Bureau of Meteorology has said there is still disagreement among weather models, but most show sea surface temperatures consistent with an El Niño could be in place by July.”
CORROBORATED
The claim is directly supported by a web search result stating: 'The Bureau of Meteorology has said there is still disagreement among weather models, but most show sea surface temperatures consistent with an El Niño could be in place by July.'
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web search NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular patter…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
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web search NEUTRAL — The Bureau of Meteorology has said there is still disagreement among weather models, but most show sea surface temperatures consistent with an El Niño could be in place by July.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/27/weath…
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web search NEUTRAL — What are the El Niño, La Niña weather events? They are opposite phases of the same climate system in the tropical Pacific. El Niño is a natural pattern of unusually warm sea surface temperatures in th…
https://www.rappler.com/environment/explainer-el-nino-potent…
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“Caitlin Minney, a climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology, said a developing El Niño was likely one of the factors behind the dry forecast.”
CORROBORATED
The claim is supported by a web search result mentioning that BOM climatologist Caitlin Minney stated that a developing El Niño was likely a factor behind the dry forecast.
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web search NEUTRAL — While models suggest a possible shift to El Niño later this year, its timing and strength is less certain. Our long-range forecast is the best guide to Australia's likely rainfall and temperature patt…
https://www.bom.gov.au/news-and-media/possible-el-nino-long-…
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web search NEUTRAL — What Is ENSO El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a natural climate pattern across the tropical Pacific known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or "ENSO" for short. The pattern shift…
https://www.climate.gov/enso
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web search NEUTRAL — The wet conditions are forecast to ease this month, with below-average rainfall expected for June, Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) climatologist Caitlin Minney said.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-06/queensland-record-wet…
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““May to July looks like rainfall will likely be below average for much of eastern Australia,” she said.”
CORROBORATED
The claim is directly supported by a web search result quoting an expert: '“May to July looks like rainfall will likely be below average for much of eastern Australia,” she said.'
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web search NEUTRAL — The climate of Australia is the second driest of any continent, after Antarctica. According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), 80% of the land receives less than 600 mm (24 in) of rainfall annually a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Australia
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web search NEUTRAL — “May to July looks like rainfall will likely be below average for much of eastern Australia,” she said. While the drier conditions are expected to be concentrated in NSW and Queensland, the forecast a…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/27/weath…
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web search NEUTRAL — Much of eastern Australia has seen below-average rainfall since the last La Niña concluded in autumn 2012.
https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a013.shtml
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“While the drier conditions are expected to be concentrated in NSW and Queensland, the forecast also suggests parts of northern and western Victoria, southern parts of South Australia and the south-west of Western Australia could also be dry.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
Although the claim discusses dry conditions in multiple regions, the provided evidence search results did not contain specific corroborating information detailing forecasts for northern/western Victoria, southern South Australia, or the south-west of Western Australia as a group statement.
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“The bureau is also watching conditions in the Indian Ocean where some models are suggesting ocean temperatures to Australia’s north-west could cool – another phenomenon that can lower the chance of rainfall over the continent.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results to confirm the specific forecast regarding cooling ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean north-west of Australia and its impact on rainfall.
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“Dr Peter van Rensch, a climate scientist at Monash University, led a study last year into the affects of the cycle of warming and cooling in the Pacific – known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation – on Australian rainfall.”
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“He said El Niño’s influence on Australian rainfall has historically been at its greatest in the months of June and July and October and November.”
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“The bureau’s long-range forecast is also showing the bottom two-thirds of Australia has an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures from May to July.”
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“Global heating, caused by the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, has warmed Australia by about 1.5C since 1910.”
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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.