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Semiconductor stocks did something not seen since the dot-com bubble burst. What the charts show

Cnbc · · 962 words · By Todd Gordon
NVIDIA Valuation Technical Analysis Semiconductor Market Growth
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/semiconductor-stocks-did-something-not-seen-sinc…

psychologyDetected Techniques

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Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
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Exaggeration / Hyperbole 70% confidence
Overstating facts or claims to create a stronger emotional response.
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Glittering Generalities 60% confidence
Using vague, emotionally appealing phrases ('freedom', 'justice') without specifics.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

13 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

info Single Source 5
verified Verified By Reference 3
schedule Pending 3
help Insufficient Evidence 2
info
“The SMH/ QQQ weekly ratio chart broke out to a 26-year high.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence defines SMH and QQQ but does not contain any data regarding the ratio chart or a 26-year high.
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web search NEUTRAL — Invesco QQQ is an index exchange-traded fund created by Invesco PowerShares. QQQ tracks the performance of the Nasdaq-100.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invesco_QQQ
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web search NEUTRAL — Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ). Invesco QQQ Trust provides exposure to the 101 largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq by tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index. It is one of t…
https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:ec8f17408094b:0-consu…
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web search NEUTRAL — VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSEARCA:SMH | SMH Price Prediction) trades near $510 after returning roughly 141% over the past year against the S&P 500’s 29%.
https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/05/03/smh-has-crushed-t…
info
“It's an all-time high going back to May 2000”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence discusses drawdowns and general performance but does not mention a specific all-time high for the SMH/QQQ ratio dating back to May 2000.
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web search NEUTRAL — The maximum SMH drawdown since its inception was -84.96%, roughly equal to the maximum QQQ drawdown of -82.97%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for SMH and QQQ.
https://portfolioslab.com/tools/stock-comparison/SMH/QQQ
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web search NEUTRAL — 38% discount on Our Ultimate Trading Master Class, use code HODL21 at the checkout https://bit.ly/3fGzBEi Join Our FREE Public Discord : https://bit.ly...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGBG-vfgSvg
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — SMH expense ratio is 0.35%.Today, SMH technical analysis shows the buy rating and its 1-week rating is buy. Since market conditions are prone to changes, it's worth looking a bit further into the futu…
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BIVA-SMH/
verified
“Semis represent about 30% of the Nasdaq-100 ETF QQQ”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
While the evidence confirms QQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100 and is heavily weighted toward technology, none of the provided sources specify that semiconductors represent approximately 30% of the ETF.
menu_book
wikipedia NEUTRAL — Nasdaq-100 (NDX) is a stock market index made up of equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a modified capitalization-weighted…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasdaq-100
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The NASDAQ Composite (ticker symbol ^IXIC) is a stock market index that includes almost all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. Along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, it is o…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasdaq_Composite
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — S&P 500 (Standard and Poor's 500) is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 leading companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followe…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S&P_500
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
“The first major bullish wave from the 2020 lows amounted to a 232% rally”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The evidence provided for this claim discusses PI Network, Russell 2000, and Gold, but contains no data regarding a 232% rally for SMH from 2020 lows.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Iran and Israel have been engaged in a proxy conflict since 1985. In the Israeli–Lebanese conflict, Iran has supported Lebanese Shia militias, most notably Hezbollah. In the Israeli–Palestinian confli…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–Israel_proxy_conflict
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — SMH Group Stadium is an all-seater football stadium in Whittington Moor, Chesterfield, Derbyshire, on the site of the former Dema Glassworks. It is the home of Chesterfield Football Club, replacing Sa…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMH_Group_Stadium
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) is a daily newspaper owned by Nine Entertainment published in Sydney, Australia in tabloid format. Founded in 1831 as the Sydney Herald, the Herald is the oldest contin…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sydney_Morning_Herald
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
“The second major bullish wave launched from the post-2022 lows and the real AI buildout amounted to a 239% rally”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The evidence mentions 2022 lows for Bitcoin and ASML, but does not provide any data regarding a 239% rally for SMH.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — SMH may refer to:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMH
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — SMHS is a four-letter abbreviation that may refer to: San Marin High School San Marino High School South Miami High School San Marcos High School (disambiguation), multiple schools San Mateo High Sch…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMHS
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) is a daily newspaper owned by Nine Entertainment published in Sydney, Australia in tabloid format. Founded in 1831 as the Sydney Herald, the Herald is the oldest contin…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sydney_Morning_Herald
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
“we find ourselves in a third cyclical bull trend from the early 2025 lows that has traveled "only" 207%”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence mentions early 2025 in the context of the Fed and Bitcoin, but there is no mention of a 207% rise in a third cyclical bull trend for SMH.
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web search NEUTRAL — Enjoy Full HD 1080p, 4k, and even 8k resolution, all with crystal-clear clarity. Explore thousands of trending viral videos from Indonesia and millions of popular Japanese videos on openbo.baby.
https://openbo.baby/20-bok3p-viral-on-social-media-in-2025-p…
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web search NEUTRAL — Throughout early 2025, the Fed maintained its policy rate between 4.25% and 4.5%, citing the need to manage inflation while navigating a potential slowdown. However, escalating trade tensions have shi…
https://instabioideas.net/bitcoin-holds-up-well-during-the-m…
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web search NEUTRAL — A bull market is favorable and rises in value, while a bear declines.
https://www.investopedia.com/insights/digging-deeper-bull-an…
info
“NVDA has been sideways since this time last year threatening a breakthrough the round $200 figure.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence discusses NVIDIA's partnership with OpenAI in 2025, but does not provide stock price movement data or mention a 'sideways' trend approaching $200.
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web search NEUTRAL — On September 22, 2025, Nvidia and OpenAI announced a memorandum of understanding for a partnership wherein Nvidia would invest $100 billion into OpenAI, and OpenAI would use Nvidia chips and systems i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia
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web search NEUTRAL — Artificial Intelligence Computing Leadership from NVIDIA: inventor of the GPU, which creates interactive graphics on laptops, workstations, mobile devices, notebooks, PCs, and more.
http://www.nvidia.com/page/home.html
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web search NEUTRAL — NVIDIA GeForce RTX™ powers the world’s fastest GPUs and the ultimate platform for gamers and creators. Enjoy beautiful ray tracing, AI-powered DLSS, and much more in games and applications, on your de…
https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/
info
“In 2021-2023 this company was bringing in twenty-something billion in top line revenue.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence for NVIDIA focuses on its general leadership in AI and a 2025 partnership, but does not list revenue figures for the 2021-2023 period.
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web search NEUTRAL — On September 22, 2025, Nvidia and OpenAI announced a memorandum of understanding for a partnership wherein Nvidia would invest $100 billion into OpenAI, and OpenAI would use Nvidia chips and systems i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia
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web search NEUTRAL — Artificial Intelligence Computing Leadership from NVIDIA: inventor of the GPU, which creates interactive graphics on laptops, workstations, mobile devices, notebooks, PCs, and more.
http://www.nvidia.com/page/home.html
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web search NEUTRAL — From the cloud to the office to the data center to the edge, NVIDIA provides solutions that deliver breakthrough performance on enterprise AI and HPC workloads at any scale, driving business decisions…
https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/
help
“Three years, later analysts are expecting NVDA to bring in two hundred-something billion in revenue.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was provided for this claim.
help
“the current forward valuation, with NVDA trading at 23.7 times earnings.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was provided for this claim.
schedule
“Calendar year 2026 is expected to bring in $8.34 in EPS.”
PENDING
schedule
“top line revenues went from $26 billion to $60 billion in 12 months [in 2024]”
PENDING
schedule
“Blackwell shipping and sold out”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.