One Nation’s rise may seem sudden, but it follows long-term voter trends

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · May 11, 2026 · 669 words · By Ian McAllister; Juliet Pietsch; Sarah Cameron

Partisan Dealignment Australian Electoral System Voter Volatility

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What to know about Partisan Dealignment

The article discusses the rise of minor parties and independent candidates in Australian politics, attributing this trend to long-term shifts in voter behavior. It cites data from the Australian Election Study to highlight 'partisan dealignment' and increased voter volatility over several decades.

Propaganda risk 10%

Claims checked 14

Techniques found 1

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Right coverage

Left50%

Center50%

Right0%

2 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

In the 2025 Australian federal election, Pauline Hanson’s party received only 6.4% of the national vote.

Why it matters

A year later, One Nation has surpassed the Liberal Party in the polls, received more votes than the Liberals in the South Australian election, and won their first seat in the House of Representatives in the Farrer by-election.

Common ground

Similarly, the movement of independent candidates seemed to emerge rapidly.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Partisan Dealignment story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that In the 1960s, over 70% of voters would vote for the same party in every election?
How does this story connect Partisan Dealignment with Australian Electoral System over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/one-nations-rise-may-seem-sudden-but-it-follows-long…

analyticsAnalysis

10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 70% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 14 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

info Single Source 5

schedule Pending 4

verified Verified By Reference 3

verified Verified 1

check_circle Corroborated 1

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Claim 1: “In the 1960s, over 70% of voters would vote for the same party in every election.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 2: “At the 2019 federal election, independent candidates won just three seats.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The evidence confirms a federal election took place on May 18, 2019, but does not provide the specific number of independent candidates who won seats.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — A federal election was held on 18 May 2019 to elect members of the 46th Parliament of Australia. The election had been called following the dissolution of the 45th Parliament as elected at the 2016 do…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Australian_federal_electi…

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web search NEUTRAL — Rather, Australian elections are won and lost as a result of changes in the behavior of a smaller group of genuine swinging voters who do change their candidate choices (and preference rankings) from …
https://sage.cnpereading.com/doi/10.1177/20563051211063462

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web search NEUTRAL — Outsider status: Liberal candidate for Gilmore, Warren Mundine, who was handpicked by Scott Morrison to run in the seat, is fighting on multiple fronts in the 2019 Australian federal election campaign…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/08/going…

verified

Claim 3: “In the 2025 Australian federal election, Pauline Hanson’s party received only 6.4% of the national vote.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided evidence includes general information about One Nation and mentions a 'March for Australia' in 2025, but no source provides the specific percentage (6.4%) of the national vote for the 2025 federal election.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Since it was formed in 1997, Pauline Hanson's One Nation has had a number of elected representatives at the federal, state and local level in Australia. As of June 2018, more than two-thirds of all el…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_One_Nation_elected_rep…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — March for Australia was a series of nationwide protests in many Australian cities that occurred on 31 August 2025, 19 October 2025 and 26 January 2026 (Australia Day). The protests aimed to express di…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_for_Australia

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Pauline Hanson's One Nation (PHON), commonly known as One Nation (ON), is a right-wing populist political party in Australia. It is led by its founder Pauline Hanson, who has been a senator for Queens…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Nation

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 4: “The Liberals hit a record low in 2025”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 5: “won their first seat in the House of Representatives in the Farrer by-election.”

VERIFIED

Strongly confirmed by both Wikipedia and multiple news reports. David Farley of One Nation won the Farrer by-election on May 9, 2026, marking the party's first seat in the House of Representatives.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A by-election was held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of Parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer. One Nation candidate David Farley was elected, defeating independent …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Farrer_by-election

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — David Farley (born 16 January 1957) is an Australian politician who has been the member of parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer since 2026. He is a member of One Nation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Farley_(politician)

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Division of Farrer is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. Located in the southwestern part of the state bordering both South Australia and Victoria, at 126,563 km2 (4…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Farrer

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 6: “Back in 1987, 84% of Australians reported feeling close to one of the two major political parties.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific statistic (84% in 1987) is found in one web search result describing One Nation's rise, but is not corroborated by other independent sources in the provided evidence.

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web search NEUTRAL — American electoral politics have been dominated by successive pairs of major political parties since shortly after the founding of the republic of the United States.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_parties_in_the_Unite…

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web search NEUTRAL — Back in 1987, 84% of Australians reported feeling close to one of the two major political parties. By 2025, this had declined to just 55%. For the first time on record, the proportion of non-partisans…
https://theconversation.com/one-nations-rise-may-seem-sudden…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Australia has a preferential voting system where voters rank candidates from their most to least preferred. The final tally is calculated as a challenge between two candidates after preferences are di…
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy2e4z4npro

info

Claim 7: “By 2022, this had multiplied to 10 independents winning seats in the House of Representatives, six of which were previously safe Liberal seats.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence for this claim consists only of dictionary definitions for the number '10' and does not contain any political data regarding the 2022 Australian federal election.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — 10 (ten) is the even natural number following 9 and preceding 11. Ten is the base of decimal numeral systems, the most common systems for denoting numbers in both spoken and written language.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The meaning of TEN is a number that is one more than nine. How to use ten in a sentence.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ten

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Definition of ten number in Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary. Meaning, pronunciation, picture, example sentences, grammar, usage notes, synonyms and more.
https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/us/definition/eng…

schedule

Claim 8: “just 34% of voters reporting that they always voted the same way in 2025”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 9: “For the first time on record, the proportion of non-partisans in the electorate, surpassed the number of Liberal partisans”

SINGLE SOURCE

The claim that non-partisans surpassed Liberal partisans for the first time on record appears in the same single source as claims 7 and 8, without further independent corroboration.

info

Claim 10: “By 2025, this had declined to just 55%.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The claim that the percentage declined to 55% by 2025 appears in the same single source as claim 7, without further independent corroboration.

schedule

Claim 11: “The popularity of both Labor and the Liberals has declined, reaching a record low for Labor in 2013”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 12: “The Australian Election Study, a major survey of Australian voters that has been fielded after every federal election since 1987”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Multiple authoritative web sources confirm that the Australian Election Study (AES) is a series of surveys beginning in 1987 timed to coincide with federal elections.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The Australian Election Study (AES) is the leading study of political attitudes and behaviour in Australia. The study has surveyed voters from 1987 to 2025, providing an unparalleled source of evidenc…
https://australianelectionstudy.org/

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web search NEUTRAL — The studies have been running as a series of surveys beginning in 1987 that have been timed to coincide with Australian Federal elections. The series also builds on the 1967, 1969 and 1979 Australian …
https://ada.edu.au/aes/

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The Australian Election Study (AES) is the leading study of political attitudes and behaviour in Australia. The study has surveyed voters for over thirty years, since 1987, providing an unparalleled s…
https://whataustraliathinks.org.au/study/aes/

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Claim 13: “A year later, One Nation has surpassed the Liberal Party in the polls”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources indicate a surge in One Nation's polling relative to the Liberals. One source explicitly states the party is 'polling ahead of the Coalition' and 'surpasses both Coalition', while another mentions the Liberal primary vote collapsing in South Australia.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — A state election was held on 21 March 2026 to elect the members of the 56th Parliament of South Australia. All 47 seats in the House of Assembly (lower house) were up for election, along with 11 of th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_South_Australian_state_el…

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+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 14: “received more votes than the Liberals in the South Australian election”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

While there is evidence of a 2026 South Australian state election and reports of the Liberal party's 'dreadful result' and a 'surge' for One Nation, no specific data is provided in the evidence to confirm that One Nation actually received more votes than the Liberals in that election.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Liberal Party (Korean: 자유당; Hanja: 自由黨; RR: Jayudang) was a far-right corporatist and anti-communist political party in South Korea established in 1951 by Syngman Rhee.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Party_(South_Korea)

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+ 3 more evidence sources

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.