Exclusive poll shows nearly half of respondents defecting from Victorian Labor. What do these voters care about?

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · Aug 16, 2026 · 1251 words · By Emily Foley; James C Murphy; Phoebe Hayman; Tenzin Liddy-Corlett

Issue Salience (Cost of Living, Crime, Health) Rise of Populism (One Nation) Voter Volatility

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What to know about Issue Salience (Cost of Living, Crime, Health)

The article discusses a poll conducted by Accent Research regarding the upcoming Victorian state election, highlighting a shift in voter support away from the Labor government. It analyzes voter priorities, specifically focusing on cost of living, crime, and health, and notes a significant increase in support for One Nation.

Propaganda risk 20%

Claims checked 22

Techniques found 1

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Right coverage

Left33%

Center67%

Right0%

3 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

A new poll of Victorians shows almost half of respondents who voted Labor in the 2022 state election intend to vote differently this November, with more than 13% moving their vote to One Nation and a further 11% intending to vote for the Coalition.

Why it matters

The survey, conducted by Accent Research as part of an in-depth study of the Victorian state election funded by the University of Melbourne, also found the cost of living was easily the most pressing issue for voters, with more than 68% listing it in their…

Common ground

Worryingly for the Carroll Labor government, just 18.8% of voters thought Labor was the party best able to deal with cost-of-living issues, behind the Coalition (23.9%) and just ahead of One Nation (15.7%).

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Issue Salience (Cost of Living, Crime, Health) story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that more than 13% moving their vote to One Nation and a further 11% intending to vote for the Coalition?
How does this story connect Issue Salience (Cost of Living, Crime, Health) with Rise of Populism (One Nation) over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/exclusive-poll-shows-nearly-half-of-respondents-defe…

analyticsAnalysis

20%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Minor concerns. Some persuasive language detected, but largely factual.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 22 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 12

verified Verified By Reference 5

info Single Source 3

help Insufficient Evidence 2

verified

Claim 1: “more than 13% moving their vote to One Nation and a further 11% intending to vote for the Coalition”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence provided for this claim is irrelevant, including results for the game 'Among Us' and general election dates. No data regarding vote shifts to One Nation or the Coalition was found.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2022 Victorian state election was held on Saturday, 26 November 2022 to elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria. All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legisl…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Victorian_state_election

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — A by-election was held on 2 May 2026 to elect the member of parliament for the district of Nepean in the Victorian Legislative Assembly. The election was triggered by the resignation of Sam Groth, a L…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Nepean_state_by-election

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Victorian Labor Party, officially known as the Australian Labor Party (Victorian Branch) and commonly referred to simply as Victorian Labor, is the Victorian state branch of the Australian Labor P…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victorian_Labor_Party

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 2: “the latest statistics suggest crime rates are declining”

SINGLE SOURCE

The evidence provided consists of hotel listings for the Hilton Garden Inn in Rochester. No statistics regarding Victorian crime rates were provided.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Our Rochester University hotel is walking distance to the campus & medical center. Enjoy spacious guestrooms, onsite dining, free WiFi and free airport shuttle.
https://www.hilton.com/en/hotels/rocuagi-hilton-garden-inn-r…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The Hilton Garden Inn Rochester/University & Medical Center hotel offers cooked-to-order breakfast served daily. In the evening, wind down at our full-service restaurant and lounge with a sharable sma…
https://www.hilton.com/en/hotels/rocuagi-hilton-garden-inn-r…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Plan your next Rochester event or meeting at the Hilton Garden Inn Rochester/University & Medical Center. We have the space, staff, and amenities to make your gathering a success. For group events, pl…
https://www.hilton.com/en/hotels/rocuagi-hilton-garden-inn-r…

verified

Claim 3: “The survey, conducted by Accent Research as part of an in-depth study of the Victorian state election funded by the University of Melbourne”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence includes a mention of a 'Victorian Resolve poll' and a professor at the University of Melbourne, but there is no mention of a survey conducted by 'Accent Research' funded by the University of Melbourne.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Australian English (AuE) accents are the non-rhotic pronunciations of English used by most native-born Australians. Phonologically, Australian English is a relatively regionally homogeneous variety of…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_English_phonology

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Cultivated Australian English, or the Cultivated Australian accent, is a prestige variety of Australian English associated with the cultivated end of the traditional broad–general–cultivated continuum…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultivated_Australian_English

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Jon Cattapan (born 1956) is an Australian visual artist best known for his abstract oil paintings of cityscapes, his service as the 63rd Australian war artist and his work as a professor of visual art…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Cattapan

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 4: “Our poll found only 16% of respondents planning to support One Nation this November supported them in the 2025 federal election and the 2022 Victorian election”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 5: “Health was top three for 43% of Labor defectors”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 6: “a quarter of our sample said Liberals or Nationals were best at dealing with [crime], though One Nation was close behind, with 22% preferring them. Only 16% of respondents rated Labor as best on crime”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found after searching for this claim.

info

Claim 7: “56% put crime in their top three, and 38% did so for health”

SINGLE SOURCE

The evidence provided is irrelevant, including YouTube videos about a character named Victor and global crime indices for Colombia and the US. No Victorian polling data on crime or health was found.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Smart reads and high-level matchup decisions TOP 8 ranked-level execution and consistency Relentless pressure from round start to finish Victor mains, this one is for you! Drop a Like if you love Vict…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9AAE1KGCKU

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Rank. Country. Crime Index.38.7. Colombia.
https://www.numbeo.com/crime/rankings_by_country.jsp

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — US Crime Rate Ranking. The United States ranks 59th globally with a crime index score of 5.9.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/crime-rat…

schedule

Claim 8: “Crime was in the top three for about half of Labor defectors”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 9: “Our poll, made up of a representative sample of 1,002 Victorians”

SINGLE SOURCE

The evidence discusses general sampling methods (NYT/CBS) and US House representatives, but does not mention a specific sample of 1,002 Victorians.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — A Sample That Looks Like America. So what do the respondents in a typical New York Times/CBS News Poll look like? After all the random dialing, the callbacks, the refusal conversion, and the weighting…
https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/national…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Newsweek analyzes the polls and markets shaping the battle for the House and Senate eight weeks before the midterms.
https://www.soz6.com/news/what-midterms-polling-reveals-2-mo…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The Find Your Representative feature provides Congressional District information for the current Congress, and the Representative currently serving that Congressional District for the duration of the …
https://www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representati…

schedule

Claim 10: “respondents saying they were Coalition-to-One-Nation converts — not a large group, only 8% of our sample — a whopping 86% rated crime in their top three”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 11: ““corruption”, ranked in the top three of issues for just 15% of Labor defectors; and government debt, which was in the top three for 12%”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 12: “The vast majority of our sample intending to support the party – 70% – did not vote for them in 2022”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 13: “A new poll of Victorians shows almost half of respondents who voted Labor in the 2022 state election intend to vote differently this November”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided evidence consists of general information about the 2022 and 2026 Victorian elections and generic poll-making websites. No specific poll data regarding 2022 Labor voters intending to vote differently in November was found in the evidence.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — A state general election is scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly and all 40 seats in the Legislative C…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Victorian_state_election

menu_book

+ 3 more evidence sources

help

Claim 14: “26% said Labor was best to deal with health, with 21% opting for the Coalition and 13% nominating One Nation”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found after searching for this claim.

schedule

Claim 15: “Just 57% of people who voted Labor at the last state election say they will stick with them this year”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 16: “the post-COVID “Danslide” that saw Labor take 56 seats in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 17: “more than 68% listing [cost of living] in their top three concerns”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence provided consists of dictionary definitions of the word 'more' and unrelated Wikipedia entries. No polling data regarding cost of living concerns was found.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Comilla Victorians (Bengali: কুমিল্লা ভিক্টোরিয়ান্স) is a Bangladeshi professional men's cricket team which competed in the Bangladesh Premier League, a T-20 cricket league. The team is based in Cumi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comilla_Victorians

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Victorians is a 2009 British documentary series which focuses on Victorian art and culture. The four-part series is written and presented by Jeremy Paxman and debuted on BBC One at 9:00pm on Sunda…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Victorians

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Sir Thomas More (7 February 1478 – 6 July 1535), venerated in the Catholic Church as a martyr and saint, was an English lawyer, judge, social philosopher, author, statesman, theologian and Renaissance…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_More

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 18: “just 18.8% of voters thought Labor was the party best able to deal with cost-of-living issues, behind the Coalition (23.9%) and just ahead of One Nation (15.7%)”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

While there are general polls mentioned regarding One Nation and the Coalition in federal or general contexts, the specific percentages (23.9%, 18.8%, 15.7%) regarding cost-of-living solutions in Victoria are not present in the evidence.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — This is a list of the candidates of the 2026 Victorian state election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_of_the_2026_Victori…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — A federal election is scheduled to be held by 2028 to elect members of the House of Representatives and half of the Senate to the 49th Parliament of Australia. The incumbent Labor government, led by P…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_electi…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls, often for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary v…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_A…

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 19: “77% of this group [Labor defectors] ranked cost of living in their top three issues and nearly half (47%) ranked this as their number one”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 20: “These One Nation “converts” were strongly united in their concern about crime (79% put it in their top three) and cost of living (62%), with government finances and debt (29%) and corruption (28%) trailing further back”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 21: “About 35% of respondents said they voted for Labor in the 2022 state election”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 22: “8.5% were moving to Greens and 6.8% were undecided”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.