Nigeria faces the world’s highest projected death toll from super El Niño heat: what could save lives

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · Sep 25, 2026 · 1191 words · By Michael Greenstone; Tamma Carleton

Public Health Preparedness Global Inequality Climate Change Impact

headphones Listen to the eFinder podcast briefing

Generate a natural audio summary of this story

Daily briefing

What to know about Public Health Preparedness

Researchers from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab project that a strong El Niño event could lead to approximately 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally by February 2027. The report highlights the Sahel region, particularly Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad, as being at the highest risk due to poverty and lack of cooling infrastructure.

Propaganda risk 10%

Claims checked 15

Techniques found 1

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left12%

Center76%

Right12%

8 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab combined temperature forecasts with research on how heat affects death rates in more than 24,000 regions worldwide, and found that the super El Niño could cause an estimated 451,000 additional heat…

Why it matters

Michael Greenstone and Tamma Carleton were part of the research team along with Genevieve Maricle and Emily Grover-Kopec.

Common ground

They explain why Africa’s Sahel region is projected to be the hardest hit area, and why Nigeria is also projected to be one of the worst hit country.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Public Health Preparedness story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that Our research looks at how temperature affects death rates in 24,378 regions?
How does this story connect Public Health Preparedness with Global Inequality over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/nigeria-faces-the-worlds-highest-projected-death-tol…

analyticsAnalysis

10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 70% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 15 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 5

check_circle Corroborated 4

help Insufficient Evidence 2

info Single Source 2

cancel Disputed 1

verified Verified By Reference 1

schedule

Claim 1: “Our research looks at how temperature affects death rates in 24,378 regions”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 2: “Nearly half of these deaths — 31,400 — are projected to be in Nigeria, the most populous of the four with 237.5 million residents.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 3: “Only 21% of people in Niger and 13% in Chad had electricity in 2024”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the search results regarding electricity access percentages for Niger and Chad in 2024.

schedule

Claim 4: “Our projections show that these four countries will likely see 66,800 additional deaths from extreme heat compared with a normal year.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 5: “Sudan is projected to have the second largest number of heat-related deaths at 17,500, followed by Niger with 10,000 and Chad with 8,000.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

cancel

Claim 6: “In Nigeria, more than 60% of people were estimated to live below the national poverty line in 2025”

DISPUTED

The claim states over 60% live below the poverty line in 2025. However, World Bank evidence provided indicates 46% (general) and another report mentions over 56% (Oct 2024). There is a discrepancy between the 60% figure and the World Bank's 46-56% range.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The World Bank’s report also highlights that over 46 per cent of Nigerians live below the poverty line, with poor households spending up to 70 per cent of their income on food.
https://punchng.com/wbank-report-nigeria-needs-to-tackle-pov…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — May 17, 2023 · The Macro Poverty Outlook for Nigeria: April 2023 projects a distressing scenario, with an estimated 13 million Nigerians expected to fall below the national poverty line by 2025....
https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/world-bank-…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Oct 20, 2024 · Reforms undertaken by Nigeria’s government are “essential” but have piled pressure on its people, more than half of whom live in poverty, the World Bank has said.
https://www.theafricareport.com/365284/more-than-half-of-nig…

check_circle

Claim 7: “There are four countries that are projected to be affected the most by El Niño, from September 2026 through to the end of February 2027. They are Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad.”

CORROBORATED

Three independent web search results explicitly state that Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad are projected to be the four countries most affected by El Niño from September 2026 through February 2027.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Kanuri people (also Barnawi, Yerwa, Barebari and several other subgroup names) are an African ethnic group living largely in the lands of the former Kanem and Bornu Empires in Niger, Nigeria, Chad…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kanuri_people

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Lake Chad (Arabic: بحيرة تشاد, Kanuri: Sádǝ, French: Lac Tchad) is an endorheic freshwater lake located at the junction of four countries: Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon, in western and central Af…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Chad

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Since April 2023, there has been a civil war in Sudan between the two main factions of the country's military government. The conflict involves the internationally recognized government of Sudan led b…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_civil_war_(2023–prese…

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 8: “In Niger, 41% lived below the national poverty line in 2021.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The figure of 41% for Niger in 2021 is mentioned in one specific news report about the El Niño projections, but no other independent source in the evidence confirms this specific percentage.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — In Niger, 41% lived below the national poverty line in 2021.Nigeria has the highest projected national toll at 31,400; Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad together account for 66,800. Extreme heat and limi…
https://phys.org/news/2026-09-nigeria-world-highest-death-to…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Poverty Rate is typically measured as the percentage of the population living below the national poverty line(s). National estimates are based on population-weighted subgroup estimates from household …
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/poverty-r…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — World population has reached 8 billion on November 15, 2022 according to the United Nations. World population live counter with data sheets, graphs, maps, and census data regarding the current, histor…
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

check_circle

Claim 9: “Michael Greenstone and Tamma Carleton were part of the research team along with Genevieve Maricle and Emily Grover-Kopec.”

CORROBORATED

The membership of the research team (Michael Greenstone, Tamma Carleton, Genevieve Maricle, and Emily Grover-Kopec) is confirmed by multiple web search results, including the Climate Impact Lab's own team page and news reports.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Food security is the state of having reliable access to a sufficient quantity of affordable, healthy food. The availability of food for people of any class, gender, status, ethnicity, or religion is a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_security

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The following is a list of weather events that occurred on Earth in the year 2026.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_of_2026

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Genevieve Maricle. Executive Director, Climate Impact Lab. Robert Kopp.Tamma Carleton is the Faculty Head of Research for the Climate Impact Lab (CIL) and an Assistant Professor in the Department of A…
https://impactlab.org/team/

+ 2 more evidence sources

info

Claim 10: “In Sudan... an estimated 57% of people living in extreme poverty in 2025.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific figure of 57% extreme poverty in Sudan for 2025 is mentioned in one news report regarding the El Niño heat death toll, but is not corroborated by other independent poverty databases in the provided evidence.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — National estimates are based on population-weighted subgroup estimates from household surveys.[9]. Definitions of the poverty line vary considerably among nations. For example, rich nations generally …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_percentag…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — In Sudan, war has destroyed businesses and jobs and damaged power supplies, with an estimated 57 per cent of people living in extreme poverty in 2025.
https://www.downtoearth.org.in/africa/nigeria-faces-the-worl…

travel_explore

check_circle

Claim 11: “Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab... found that the super El Niño could cause an estimated 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide between now and February 2027.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent web sources (Climate Impact Lab, Inside Climate News, and another news report) confirm the projection of 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide by February 2027 due to a super El Niño.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The University of Chicago (UChicago, Chicago, UChi, or U of C) is a private research university in the Hyde Park community area of Chicago, Illinois, United States. The university is composed of an un…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Chicago

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Climate fiction (sometimes shortened to cli-fi) is literature that deals with climate change. Generally speculative in nature but inspired by climate science, works of climate fiction may take place i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_fiction

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Economic analysis of climate change uses economic tools and models to calculate the scale and distribution of damages caused by climate change. It can also give guidance for the best policies for miti…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_analysis_of_climate_c…

+ 3 more evidence sources

help

Claim 12: “In Chad, 44.8% of the population lived in poverty in 2022.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the search results to confirm or deny the poverty rate in Chad for 2022.

schedule

Claim 13: “There are 18 countries trapped in this deadly combination of extreme heat and lack of cooling. Most of them are located in northern sub-Saharan Africa such as Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

check_circle

Claim 14: “It covers about 3.05 million square kilometres and cuts through parts of Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, Nigeria, Sudan, Senegal and Eritrea.”

CORROBORATED

Web search results and Wikipedia confirm the Sahel spans the listed countries (Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, Nigeria, Sudan, Senegal, and Eritrea). While the exact area of 3.05 million sq km is not explicitly listed in the snippets, the geographic span is well-supported.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Since 25 April 2026, a series of joint coordinated attacks have been carried out by Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) across multiple locations in Mali. The…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Mali_offensives

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Sahel region (; from Arabic ساحل sāḥil [ˈsaːħil], "coast, shore"), or Sahelian acacia savanna, is a biogeographical region in Africa. It is the transition zone between the more humid Sudanian sav…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahel

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The War in the Sahel, also known synonymously as the Sahel War is a multi-sided armed conflict that has been ongoing since 2012. In particular, the intensive conflict mainly takes place in the three c…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_the_Sahel

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 15: “The Sahel is a belt of dry land stretching across Africa from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, between the Sahara Desert in the north and tropical savannas in the south.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia and Britannica both define the Sahel as a transition zone between the Sahara Desert to the north and the Sudanian savannas to the south, stretching from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Sahara (, ) is a desert spanning North Africa. With an area of 9,200,000 square kilometres (3,600,000 sq mi), it is the largest hot desert in the world and the third-largest desert overall, smalle…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahara

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Sahara Desert, as defined by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), includes the hyper-arid center of the Sahara, between latitudes 18° N and 30° N. It is one of several desert and xeric shrubland …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahara_Desert_(ecoregion)

menu_book

+ 3 more evidence sources

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.