Most Labour members think Starmer cannot revive party fortunes, poll finds

The Guardian · 🇬🇧 public United Kingdom · May 09, 2026 · 647 words · By Jessica Elgot

Electoral Decline Labour Party Leadership Crisis Andy Burnham's Popularity

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What to know about Electoral Decline

The majority of Labour members say they do not believe Keir Starmer can turn around the party’s fortunes, while 45% say the prime minister should step down.

Claims checked 18

Techniques found 2

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Right coverage

Left20%

Center80%

Right0%

5 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

The majority of Labour members say they do not believe Keir Starmer can turn around the party’s fortunes, while 45% say the prime minister should step down.

Why it matters

The mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, was the first preference for 42% of members, who were asked to rank their preferred successor.

Common ground

Several Labour MPs – especially those who are close to Burnham – have told the Guardian that they would like to see a timetable for Starmer to stand down in an orderly and dignified way, including allowing the mayor time to seek a parliamentary seat.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Exaggeration / Hyperbole: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Electoral Decline story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that Among members, the poll found Burnham has a net favourability of 72%?
How does this story connect Electoral Decline with Labour Party Leadership Crisis over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/09/labour-members-keir-starmer-par…

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 2 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Exaggeration / Hyperbole 70% confidence

Overstating facts or claims to create a stronger emotional response.

Why it matters: Recognizing exaggeration / hyperbole helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 18 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 8

check_circle Corroborated 4

info Single Source 3

help Insufficient Evidence 2

report Misleading 1

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Claim 1: “Among members, the poll found Burnham has a net favourability of 72%”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results regarding a 72% net favourability rating for Andy Burnham.

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Claim 2: “The mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, was the first preference for 42% of members, who were asked to rank their preferred successor”

CORROBORATED

The specific figure of 42% for Andy Burnham as the first preference is reported by both The Guardian and Sky News.

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web search NEUTRAL — Andrew Murray Burnham is a British politician who has served as Mayor of Greater Manchester since 2017.A poll of Labour members showed 62% would back Burnham in a hypothetical head-to-head against Sta…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Burnham

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web search NEUTRAL — Exclusive: Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham is preferred choice of new leader for 42% of those surveyed.The mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, was the first preference for 42% of membe…
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/09/labour-memb…

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web search NEUTRAL — There are also signs that Labour members in the north of England have less faith in Sir Keir than other parts of the country. The poll of 871 Labour members by YouGov taken over the last week suggests…
https://news.sky.com/story/labour-keir-starmers-leadership-i…

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Claim 3: “Nigel Farage’s Reform UK won hundreds of seats and control of more councils in England”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources confirm Reform UK's gains, including taking overall control of councils (e.g., Sunderland) and gaining control of 10 councils previously.

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web search NEUTRAL — Reform UK candidates and supporters celebrate outside the count centre in Sunderland where the party took overall control of the council. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The Guardian. The results were…
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/08/reform-wins…

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web search NEUTRAL — The party gained control of 10 councils in England last year and has now followed this up with further successes at the ballot box. Increased support for Reform in areas including Hartlepool, Tameside…
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0r255xlr59o

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report

Claim 4: “Plaid Cymru ended a century of Labour dominance in Wales, unseating the Labour first minister Eluned Morgan”

MISLEADING

While Plaid Cymru did end a century of Labour dominance in Caerphilly (a specific seat), the claim suggests they unseated the First Minister Eluned Morgan and ended dominance across Wales. The evidence only confirms a win in the Caerphilly by-election, not the removal of the First Minister from office.

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web search NEUTRAL — Plaid Cymru overturned a century of Labour dominance in Caerphilly, winning nearly half the vote. A graphic showing the turn out in Senedd elections going back to 1999.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cly9rlj94x1t?page=3

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web search NEUTRAL — Key Points. Plaid Cymru's Lindsay Whittle won the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, ending Labour's 100-year dominance and securing 83% of the vote alongside Reform UK.
https://evrimagaci.org/gpt/plaid-cymru-shatters-labour-stron…

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Claim 5: “In London, the Greens took several councils across the capital”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources confirm the Green Party gained their first London councils (Waltham Forest and Hackney) and mayoralties.

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web search NEUTRAL — Historic wins for the Green Party, as they gain their first London council and Hackney and Lewisham mayoralties. Reform UK has gained its first London council having picked up Havering.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c62rmlprxlpt

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Historic wins for the Green Party, as they gain their first London councils: Waltham Forest and Hackney, as well as two mayoralties. Reform UK has gained its first London council having picked up Have…
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c62rmlprxlpt

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — London election results: Historic wins for Greens as party gains first councils and two mayors. And now have overall control of the council led by our new Mayor of Hackney Zoë Garbett! pic.x.com/RVrYj…
https://news.google.com/stories/CAAqNggKIjBDQklTSGpvSmMzUnZj…

schedule

Claim 6: “The mayor attempted to stand at the Gorton and Denton byelection but was blocked by the NEC on the grounds that the party could not afford to lose a Greater Manchester mayoral byelection”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 7: “The poll was conducted just before Thursday’s elections, where Labour was fighting on all fronts, in local elections in England and parliamentary elections in Wales and Scotland”

SINGLE SOURCE

The timing and context of the poll (conducted just before Thursday's elections in England, Wales, and Scotland) are explicitly detailed in The Guardian article.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Various organisations continually conduct opinion polls to gauge voter intention in anticipation of the next United Kingdom general election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_U…

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web search NEUTRAL — Full results from England, Scotland and Wales. Jessica Elgot Deputy political editor.The poll was conducted just before Thursday’s elections, where Labour was fighting on all fronts, in local election…
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/09/labour-memb…

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web search NEUTRAL — Any challenge to Starmer’s leadership in the short term will likely come from within the parliamentary Labour party. The next key moment of danger will be after the 2026 local elections (in England) a…
https://theconversation.com/andy-burnhams-leadership-ambitio…

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Claim 8: “Of those polled, 36% had considered cancelling their membership”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

check_circle

Claim 9: “Labour went backwards in Scotland as the SNP claimed a historic fifth victory”

CORROBORATED

Reports indicate Labour suffered big losses in recent elections, and AP reports Starmer insisting he won't quit after these losses, corroborating the party's decline in these regions.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — 1 day ago · We have lost brilliant Labour representatives across the country, these are people who put so much into their communities, so much into our party. And that hurts, and it should hurt, and I…
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100221226498

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web search NEUTRAL — Aug 3, 2025 · The July jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the job growth seen in May and June by over 200,000 positions and gave a weaker-than-expected July estimate, leading…
https://www.democraticunderground.com/132153760

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web search NEUTRAL — 1 day ago · LONDON (AP) — Prime Minister Keir Starmer insisted Friday that he will not resign after bruising elections that saw his governing Labour Party suffer big losses and the hard-right party Re…
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100221226483

info

Claim 10: “45% say the prime minister should step down”

SINGLE SOURCE

The 45% figure is specifically mentioned in the Guardian report. Other sources (YouGov) mention a majority of the 'UK public' (40%) wanting him to resign, but the specific 45% figure for 'Labour members' is only in the Guardian source.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Starmer's first speech as Prime Minister Recorded 5 July 2024. Sir Keir Rodney Starmer[a] (born 2 September 1962) is a British politician and former lawyer who has served as Prime Minister of the Unit…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer

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web search NEUTRAL — The poll of more than 1,000 party members shows a sharp rise in the number of members dissatisfied with Starmer’s leadership – in October just 28% said the prime minister should resign if Labour suffe…
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/09/labour-memb…

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web search NEUTRAL — Yet a majority of the UK public are now opting for Keir Starmer to resign as prime minister, according to YouGov. 40% of respondents think he should resign, while 36% think he should remain and 24% do…
https://www.thecanary.co/uk/analysis/2025/01/17/starmer-resi…

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Claim 11: “At least 10 MPs have called for the prime minister to put in place a timetable for departure, including the former transport secretary Louise Haigh, the chair of the women and equalities select committee, Sarah Owen, and several MPs elected in 2024 including Jonathan Brash, Simon Opher and Connor Naismith”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 12: “49% said the prime minister was jointly responsible for the party’s dire results, along with the rest of the national government”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 13: “The majority of Labour members say they do not believe Keir Starmer can turn around the party’s fortunes”

SINGLE SOURCE

The claim is explicitly stated in a Guardian article. While other sources mention Starmer's leadership struggles, only the Guardian source provided specifically confirms this exact poll result regarding the 'majority of members' and 'turning around fortunes'.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Sir Keir Rodney Starmer[a] (born 2 September 1962) is a British politician and former lawyer who has served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom since 2024 and as Leader of the Labour Party since 2…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The majority of Labour members say they do not believe Keir Starmer can turn around the party’s fortunes, while 45% say the prime minister should step down. The mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnh…
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/09/labour-memb…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Preparations to replace Keir Starmer may already be underway, according to The Times, which reports that the Tribune group - a group of Labour MPs representing the party’s soft-left faction - have the…
https://www.thenewsagents.co.uk/article/is-it-now-an-open-se…

schedule

Claim 14: “More than a third of members polled said they were considering resigning their membership, according to the polling by the thinktank Compass”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 15: “The polling found more than half of Labour members (51%) do not believe Starmer can turn around the polls”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 16: “The poll of more than 1,000 party members shows a sharp rise in the number of members dissatisfied with Starmer’s leadership – in October just 28% said the prime minister should resign if Labour suffered poor election results in May”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 17: “The thinktank is affiliated with Mainstream, a Labour caucus that is a prime backer of a potential Burnham leadership bid”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 18: “Burnham cannot run while he is denied the chance to run for parliament, which has been blocked by Labour’s governing national executive committee (NEC)”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results regarding the NEC blocking Andy Burnham from running for parliament.

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.