Elections 2026: Experts react to the Reform surge and Labour losses

The Conversation · May 08, 2026 · 2266 words · By Alia Middleton; Ceri Fowler; Hannah Bunting; Karl Pike; Louise Thompson; Murray Leith; Stephen Clear; Thomas Lockwood; Tim Bale

Reform UK Growth Political Fragmentation Labour Party Leadership Crisis Electoral System Impact

The article provides a collection of analyses from various academic experts regarding the 2026 UK local and devolved elections. It discusses the rise of Reform UK, the impact of a new electoral system in Wales, Green party gains, and the political stability of the SNP and the Labour leadership.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/elections-2026-experts-react-to-the-reform-surge-and…

analyticsAnalysis

30%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 90%

Minor concerns. Some persuasive language detected, but largely factual.

psychologyDetected Techniques

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

warning

Name Calling / Labeling 60% confidence

Attaching a negative label to a person or group to reject them without evidence.

warning

Exaggeration / Hyperbole 70% confidence

Overstating facts or claims to create a stronger emotional response.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

18 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

schedule Pending 8

verified Verified By Reference 3

check_circle Corroborated 2

verified Verified 2

help Insufficient Evidence 2

report Misleading 1

check_circle

“Reform UK has picked up hundreds of seats [in England’s local elections]”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent sources (BBC News, The Guardian) report that Reform UK won big in the 2026 local elections, specifically noting an increase of more than 1,350 seats.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Local elections in the United Kingdom were held on 7 May 2026 for 5,066 English councillors for 136 English local authorities (all 32 London borough councils, 32 metropolitan boroughs, 18 unitary auth…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elec…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Advance UK, formerly the Integrity Party, is a far-right political party in the United Kingdom led by Ben Habib, the former Deputy Leader of Reform UK, since June 2025. The party was launched in its c…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advance_UK

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Reform UK, often known simply as Reform, is a right-wing populist and far-right political party in the United Kingdom. It has eight members of Parliament in the House of Commons, two members of the Lo…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK

+ 3 more evidence sources

report

“Essex County Council, which Reform now controls... In 2021, Reform UK barely registered, but today it has 42 councillors.”

MISLEADING

While sources confirm Reform UK gained control of Essex County Council, the specific number of councillors is contradicted. The claim states 42, but the evidence from web search results explicitly states Reform UK gained control with a total of 53 seats.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 Essex County Council election took place on 7 May 2026 to elect members to Essex County Council in Essex, England. This took place on the same day as other local elections.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Essex_County_Council_elec…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Essex County Council is the county council that governs the non-metropolitan county of Essex in England. The non-metropolitan county is smaller than the ceremonial county; the non-metropolitan county …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Essex_County_Council

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

“Essex County Council... has been either under Conservative control or no overall control since 1974.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

While the evidence confirms Reform UK took control in 2026 and that Conservatives had a majority for 25 years, there is no specific evidence provided in the search results confirming the exact status of the council from 1974 to 2026.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 Birmingham City Council election took place on 7 May 2026, with all 101 council seats up for election across 37 single-member and 32 two-member wards. The election was held alongside other lo…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Birmingham_City_Council_e…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Greater Essex Combined County Authority (GECCA), from 1 April 2028 the Greater Essex Combined Authority (GECA), is a proposed combined authority for the ceremonial county of Essex, England. The a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Essex_Combined_County_…

+ 3 more evidence sources

check_circle

“Labour conceding, very early in the day, that after decades of dominance in Wales, it will not secure a victory this time.”

CORROBORATED

The Guardian and ITV News report a historic defeat for Labour in the 2026 Senedd election, with ITV specifically mentioning predictions of only 10 seats.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — An election for the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru) was held on 7 May 2026, to elect all 96 members to the Senedd. It was the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerl…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Senedd_election

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the run-up to the 2026 Senedd election, various organisations conducted opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. The pollsters listed are members …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_S…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Senedd ( SEN-edh; lit. 'parliament' or 'senate'), officially known as the Welsh Parliament in English and Senedd Cymru (Welsh: [ˈsɛnɛð ˈkəmrɨ] ) in Welsh, is the devolved, unicameral legislature …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senedd

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

“for the first time in the history of Welsh devolution, a first minister has been unseated... Eluned Morgan and Labour.”

VERIFIED

Multiple authoritative sources, including Wikipedia and RTÉ, confirm that First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her seat in the 2026 Senedd election and subsequently resigned.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Mair Eluned Morgan, Baroness Morgan of Ely, (born 16 February 1967) is a Welsh politician who served as First Minister of Wales from 2024 to May 2026 and Leader of Welsh Labour from 2024 until her re…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eluned_Morgan

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Eluned Morgan government is the government of Wales formed by Eluned Morgan from August 2024, following her appointment as First Minister of Wales on 6 August. Morgan first formed an interim gover…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eluned_Morgan_government

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

“The old mixed system, of 40 constituency seats elected by first-past-the-post plus 20 regional “top-up” seats (60 MSs in total)”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia and The Constitution Unit Blog confirm the previous Senedd system consisted of 40 first-past-the-post seats and 20 regional seats for a total of 60 members.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — There are sixty members, with forty members chosen to represent individual Senedd constituencies, and twenty to represent the five electoral regions of the Senedd in Wales.First-past-the-post constitu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_the_Senedd

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — When the Senedd was established in 1999, it was with 60 Members (MSs) elected via a combination of 40 First Past the Post seats and 20 regional Closed List seats.
https://constitution-unit.com/2026/05/01/how-will-the-2026-s…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Under the old system, 40 Senedd members were elected in 'first past the post' constituencies, with an additional 20 members elected by proportional representation.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/mark-drakeford…

verified

“The new 96-seat structure, with all seats elected proportionally using multi-member constituencies”

VERIFIED

Web search results and Wikipedia confirm the new 2026 Senedd structure consists of 96 seats elected via a proportional system.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The Senedd constituencies (Welsh: etholaethau Senedd Cymru) [i] are the electoral districts used to elect members of the Senedd (MS; Welsh: Aelodau'r Senedd or AS) to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Wel…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senedd_constituencies

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — How does the change make my vote stronger? At the Senedd election in 2026, all seats will be allocated based on the share of votes each party or independent candidate gets. The new system means that y…
https://senedd.wales/senedd-now/senedd-blog/how-will-the-new…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — These members are elected via a proportional system with the number of politicians elected from each party based on the proportion of votes each party gets.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg1y72091no

verified

“The Greens have continued the momentum they gained following Hannah Spencer’s success in the Gorton and Denton byelection.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia and news reports confirm that Hannah Spencer won the Gorton and Denton by-election for the Green Party on 26 February 2026.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Gorton and Denton was held on 26 February 2026, following the resignation of Andrew Gwynne on health grounds. Gwynne was sitting as a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Gorton_and_Denton_by-elec…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The Green Party has won the Gorton and Denton by-election, with Hannah Spencer taking the seat from Labour in the Greens' first ever Westminster by-election victory. Labour, which took the Greater ...
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr453rvy6kvo

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Hannah Spencer elected as party's first MP in northern England as vote share for Keir Starmer's party plummets The Green party has pulled off a landmark victory in the Gorton and Denton ...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/feb/27/green-party…

help

“The party’s first mayoral seats with Zoë Garbett in Hackney and Liam Shrivastava in Lewisham”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results to confirm the election of Zoë Garbett or Liam Shrivastava as mayors.

help

“plus its first ever constituency seat at Holyrood”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results to confirm the Green Party winning its first-ever constituency seat at Holyrood in 2026.

schedule

“results like those we’ve seen in Reading and Plymouth, where they have pushed Labour into second place in the popular vote”

PENDING

schedule

“The SNP will be be the largest party but will not have a majority [in Scotland].”

PENDING

schedule

“the Greens winning their first constituency seats (and beating former cabinet minister Angus Robertson into third place)”

PENDING

schedule

“the SNP taking the long-held Liberal Democrat stronghold of the Shetland Islands”

PENDING

schedule

“Labour taking Na h-Eileanan an Iar from the SNP.”

PENDING

schedule

“Reform UK... has gained regional seats across Scotland.”

PENDING

schedule

“For the first time in nearly 50 years, Labour has lost Tameside Council in Greater Manchester, which has fallen to no overall control.”

PENDING

schedule

“Overall, around 31% of candidates at this election were women or non-binary, but for the Greens and Labour this is more than 40%. For Reform UK, only 23% of its candidates are women or non-binary.”

PENDING

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.

eFinder

eFinder

Elections 2026: Experts react to the Reform surge and Labour losses

analyticsAnalysis

psychologyDetected Techniques

fact_checkFact-Check Results