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Maths behind Hormuz toll: Is paying Iran for transit cheaper than blockade?

Al Jazeera · · 1563 words · By Yashraj Sharma
Economic Cost-Benefit Analysis Geopolitical Leverage Maritime Law and Sovereignty
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/5/21/maths-behind-hormuz-toll-is-paying-…

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Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

21 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

schedule Pending 11
check_circle Corroborated 4
info Single Source 3
cancel Disputed 1
verified Verified 1
help Insufficient Evidence 1
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“Eleven weeks after the start of the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed to naval traffic”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence for this claim consists only of dictionary definitions of the word 'strait'. There is no evidence provided regarding the specific duration (eleven weeks) or the current status of naval traffic in the context of a war.
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web search NEUTRAL — 4 days ago · The meaning of STRAIT is a comparatively narrow passageway connecting two large bodies of water —often used in plural but singular in construction. How to use strait in a sentence. strait…
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/strait
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web search NEUTRAL — STRAIT definition: Often straits. a narrow passage of water connecting two large bodies of water. See examples of strait used in a sentence.
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/strait
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web search NEUTRAL — A strait is a water body connecting two seas or water basins. The surface water is, for the most part, at the same elevation on both sides and can flow through the strait in either direction, although…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait
info
“Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintains an iron grip over the narrow, strategic waterway, while a corresponding United States naval blockade on Iranian ports has failed to reopen it.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence provided describes the IRGC as a branch of the Iranian armed forces, but does not confirm the specific claim that they maintain an 'iron grip' over the waterway or that a US naval blockade has failed to reopen it.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), [a] also known domestically as Sepah[b] or Pasdaran[c] and internationally as Iranian Revolutionary Guards, [33] is a multi-service primary force of the I…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guard_Co…
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web search NEUTRAL — 2 days ago · The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), also called Pasdaran or Sepah, is a branch of the Iranian armed forces that is independent of Iran’s regular army. It was established by Ruho…
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Islamic-Revolutionary-Guard…
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web search NEUTRAL — 1 day ago · Inside Iran’s new power circle: how an IRGC ‘brotherhood’ is steering post-Khamenei politics, security and war strategy after the Israeli airstrike
https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/new-power-circle-meet-irgc-b…
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“Before the war began, between 120 and 140 ships travelled through the strait each day, about half of them oil tankers carrying some 20 million barrels of oil between them.”
DISPUTED
Different sources provide conflicting numbers. One source claims 40 tankers carrying 20 million barrels daily, while another mentions 20 million barrels of oil and products daily in 2025. The claim's specific range of '120 to 140 ships' is not explicitly corroborated by the provided evidence.
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web search NEUTRAL — Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major maritime choke point for world energy trade, has been largely blocked by Iran since 28 February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis
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web search NEUTRAL — Prior to the war, a staggering 40 tankers carrying 20 million barrels of crude oil traversed the Strait of Hormuz on a daily bases.
https://www.unilad.com/news/world-news/countries-running-out…
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web search NEUTRAL — In 2025, about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day, according to estimates from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). That is nearly $600bn…
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78n6p09pzno
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“On Wednesday, Iran said it coordinated the transit of 26 vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours”
CORROBORATED
Two independent web sources explicitly report that Iranian officials/IRGC claimed to have coordinated the transit of 26 vessels through the waterway in 24 hours on a Wednesday.
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web search NEUTRAL — Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major maritime choke point for world energy trade, has been largely blocked by Iran since 28 February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis
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web search NEUTRAL — Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said it coordinated the transit of 26 vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, as talks between Washington and Tehran over the res…
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/20/iran-says-it-coordi…
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web search NEUTRAL — Iranian officials claimed on Wednesday that they coordinated the transit of 26 vessels through the waterway over the past 24 hours. Is the Strait of Hormuz still dangerous?
https://rtrunews.com/news/640276-what-going-on-strait-hormuz…
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“announcing the formation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), a new body to provide “real-time updates” on operations in the strait.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent sources (Al Jazeera, CNBC TV18, and other web results) confirm the announcement of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) and its purpose to provide real-time updates via X.
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web search NEUTRAL — Iran’s Supreme National Security Council announced the formation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) on Monday and also launched its official account on X. In its first post, the authority sai…
https://www.marineinsight.com/irans-new-hormuz-shipping-auth…
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web search NEUTRAL — In a post on X, the PGSA announced the launch of its official account, saying: “The official X account of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (#PGSA) is now live. Follow us for real-time updates on the …
https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/iran-announces-new-strait-of-…
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web search NEUTRAL — The body, labeled the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), made its first post on 18 May. “In the Name of God. The official X account of the PGSA is now live. Follow us for real‑time updates on Strai…
https://popularresistance.org/iran-announces-persian-gulf-st…
+ 1 more evidence source
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“through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are shipped during peacetime.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple cross-references from Al Jazeera consistently state that 20 percent of the world's oil and LNG supplies are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz during peacetime.
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cross reference SUPPORTS — Since the early days of the war, Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are shipped in peacetime.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/23/how-iran-war-has-tr…
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cross reference SUPPORTS — Since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran nine weeks ago, the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) is shipped during peacetime, has become t…
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/4/28/when-will-strai…
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cross reference SUPPORTS — 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz during peacetime.
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/4/17/australia-scram…
+ 2 more evidence sources
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“Tehran has reportedly already charged fees as high as $2m per ship for transit since the war started.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence for this claim consists only of dictionary definitions of the word 'since'. There is no evidence regarding transit fees charged by Tehran.
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web search NEUTRAL — 4 days ago · The meaning of SINCE is from a definite past time until now. How to use since in a sentence.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/since
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web search NEUTRAL — SINCE definition: 1. from a particular time in the past until a later time, or until now: 2. from a particular time…. Learn more.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/since
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web search NEUTRAL — Oct 21, 2025 · This table shows various examples of sentences using “since” to denote a specific time frame when an action or state commenced and continues to the present. Each example provides a clea…
https://grammarsolutionhub.com/sentence-examples-using-the-p…
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“Nearly one-fifth of global oil and LNG exports were shipped by Gulf producers through the Strait of Hormuz before the US and Israel bombed Iran on February 28”
CORROBORATED
The claim is supported by a Wikipedia entry regarding the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis and an Al Jazeera report, both mentioning the US and Israel bombing Iran on February 28 and the 20% figure for oil/LNG.
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web search NEUTRAL — Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major maritime choke point for world energy trade, has been largely blocked by Iran since 28 February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis
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web search NEUTRAL — Nearly one-fifth of global oil and LNG exports were shipped by Gulf producers through the Strait of Hormuz before the US and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, triggering the Iranian closure of the wa…
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/5/21/maths-behind-ho…
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web search NEUTRAL — In 2025, about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day, according to estimates from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). That is nearly $600bn…
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78n6p09pzno
verified
“The strait is the only waterway linking Gulf producers to the open ocean”
VERIFIED
Multiple sources, including a dedicated informational site and a general description, confirm that the Strait of Hormuz is the only sea route/waterway connecting the Persian Gulf producers to the open ocean.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. It is the only sea route for moving oil, natural gas and other cargo out of the Persi…
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/12/world/middleeast/strait-o…
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web search NEUTRAL — The Strait of Hormuz is a major route for illicit trade between the Musandam Peninsula, an exclave of Oman, and the southern coast of Iran. The city of Khasab in Musandam is the primary hub for this c…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz
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web search NEUTRAL — At its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz stretches just 33 kilometers, yet it connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and serves as the main export route for some of the world’s largest oil pr…
https://thebilken.com/strait-of-hormuz-explained/
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“About 20.3 million barrels per day of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime – nearly 27 percent of global maritime oil trade.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was provided for this claim in the gathered results.
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“On the day before the war broke out, Brent crude – the global benchmark for oil prices – closed at $72.48 per barrel.”
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“After Iran closed the waterway on March 4 and began attacks on vessels attempting to sail through, traffic came to a standstill, stranding about 2,000 ships on either side of the strait.”
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“In terms of lost oil revenues, this amounts to $114.8bn of losses per day.”
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“About 10 billion cubic feet of LNG per day also used to pass through the strait, worth a further $7.8bn.”
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“Since the blockade, less than 4 percent of peacetime traffic has passed through the Strait of Hormuz”
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“International law protects free transit through natural straits like Hormuz, barring countries from imposing passage tolls even where the waterways fall entirely into territorial waters”
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“Panama Canal: An artificial waterway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans... it can charge transit fees”
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“Suez Canal: Another artificial canal, linking the Mediterranean and Red seas. Egypt charges transit fees”
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“Turkiye’s Bosporus Strait and Dardanelles... Turkiye charges for navigation-related services”
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“The Strait of Hormuz passes through the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, with external parts reaching the United Arab Emirates.”
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“Iran’s newly-formed PGSA published a new map of Hormuz, stretching from Kuh-e Mubarak in Iran to south of Fujairah, in the UAE, at the eastern entrance of the strait, and from the tip of Qeshm Island to Umm al-Quwain at the western entrance.”
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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.