Costco makes progress on a key membership metric. Here's our new price target on the stock

Cnbc · 🇺🇸 public United States · Sep 24, 2026 · 1495 words · By Zev Fima

Investment Analysis Membership Trends Financial Performance

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What to know about Investment Analysis

Costco Wholesale reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results on Thursday night, but the numbers were not strong enough to silence the debate around membership trends and the retailer's growth outlook.

Claims checked 25

Techniques found 2

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center75%

Right25%

4 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Why it matters

Total revenue in the August quarter increased 11.1% year over year to $95.72 billion, ahead of Wall Street expectations of $94.86 billion, according to estimates compiled by LSEG.

Common ground

Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) in the 16-week period rose 15% to $6.75, ahead of expectations, LSEG data showed.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Glittering Generalities: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Investment Analysis story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that The U.S./Canada region renewal rate also ticked up to 92.3%, up from 92.2% in the prior quarter?
How does this story connect Investment Analysis with Membership Trends over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/investingclub/2026/09/24/costco-makes-progress-on-a-key-mem…

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 2 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Glittering Generalities 70% confidence

Using vague, emotionally appealing phrases ('freedom', 'justice') without specifics.

Why it matters: Recognizing glittering generalities helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 25 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 15

check_circle Corroborated 5

info Single Source 4

help Insufficient Evidence 1

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Claim 1: “The U.S./Canada region renewal rate also ticked up to 92.3%, up from 92.2% in the prior quarter”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 2: “Total comparable sales rose 9.4% in the fiscal fourth quarter, ahead of the 9% expected, according to estimates compiled by FactSet”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 3: “Total revenue in the August quarter increased 11.1% year over year to $95.72 billion”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources confirm total revenue of $95.72 billion (or rounded to $95.7 billion) and an increase of approximately 11%.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Jeffrey Hart Brotman (September 27, 1942 – August 1, 2017) was an American businessman, investor, lawyer, and philanthropist. Brotman was the cofounder and chairman of Costco Wholesale Corporation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Brotman

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Costco Wholesale Corporation is an American multinational corporation that operates a chain of membership-only big-box warehouse club retail stores. As of 2025, Costco is the third-largest retailer in…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costco

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Costco hot dog is a 1⁄4-pound (110-gram) hot dog sold at the international warehouse club Costco's food courts. It is notable for its steady price as a combo deal with a soda at North American loc…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costco_hot_dog

+ 3 more evidence sources

help

Claim 4: “The worldwide membership renewal rate managed to tick up slightly to 89.8%, up from the 89.7% rate we've seen in the prior three quarters”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results regarding the specific renewal rate of 89.8% or the prior rate of 89.7%.

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Claim 5: “For the full fiscal 2026, Costco opened 28 new warehouses, or 25 when excluding three relocations”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 6: “Gross margin contracted 11 basis points year over year to 11.02%”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 7: “Paid membership grew 4.1% , 4.8% and 5.2% in the third, second and first quarters of Costco's fiscal 2026”

SINGLE SOURCE

One source (Inve) mentions the 3.8% growth for the quarter ended August 30, 2026, and references previous growth rates, but the specific sequence of 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.1% for Q1, Q2, and Q3 is not corroborated by other provided evidence.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Costco's paid members grew 3.8% to 84.1 million in the quarter ended 30 August 2026, down from 4.1% the quarter before and 6.3% a year earlier. Executive members rose 9.4% to 42.3 million, so by our a…
https://news.inve.money/costco-will-spend-about-17-more-on-b…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Costco's fiscal 2026 earnings per share grew 14% year over year to $20.76.Key Points. Leaving out gas prices and currency, Costco's comparable sales growth slowed from 8% in May to 5.4% in August.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/04/costco-s-underlyin…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Magasinez sur Costco.ca pour les appareils électroniques, les ordinateurs, les meubles, les articles d’extérieur, les électroménagers, les bijoux et plus encore, et profitez des bas prix d’entrepôt su…
https://www.costco.ca/

info

Claim 8: “FactSet estimates of $1.86 billion [for membership fee income]”

SINGLE SOURCE

One source explicitly mentions FactSet estimates of $1.86 billion for membership fee income. Other sources mention 'consensus' but not the specific FactSet figure.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — FactSet Research Systems Inc., trading as FactSet, is an American financial data and software company headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut, United States. The company provides integrated data and sof…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FactSet

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The S&P 500 is a stock market index maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices. It comprises 503 common stocks which are issued by 500 companies with large market capitalizations, including two share classes…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S&P_500_companies

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 9: “paid members of 84.1 million missed expectations and represented 3.8% year-over-year growth”

CORROBORATED

Kitchen Divas and another source confirm 84.1 million paid members with 3.8% year-over-year growth.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Membership fee income increased to $644 million in the quarter, up 4% from $618 million in the prior-year quarter. Costco continues to see strong membership renewal rates of over 90% in the U.S. and C…
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/05/30/costco-posts-an-ea…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — At the end of the third quarter of its fiscal year 2026 (FY2026), Costco had 82.9 million paid members, up 4.1% year on year (YoY).Net sales increased 11.6% YoY to US$69.2 billion, bringing total reve…
https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/from-costco-to-sheng-siong-a…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Costco ended its latest quarter with 84.1 million paid members and 150.4 million cardholders, according to company results reported by Canadian Grocer. That is not just a big number. It signals a reta…
https://kitchendivas.com/costco-just-hit-84-million-members-…

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Claim 10: “Digitally enabled comparable sales were up 19.5% — or 19.8% on an adjusted basis — as e-commerce site and app traffic increased 30%”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 11: “Costco opened 12 new warehouses in the quarter, or 11 when excluding a relocation in Taiwan”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 12: “Comps were driven by a 3.3% increase in traffic and a 5.9% increase in ticket size”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 13: “During the fiscal year, we estimate we saved our members over $3.2 billion versus the average price at the pump”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 14: “executive tier memberships, which cost $130 per year, versus the $65 basic tier, increased to 42.3 million”

SINGLE SOURCE

One source (Inve) confirms executive members rose to 42.3 million, but the specific pricing of $130 vs $65 is not corroborated by other provided evidence.

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Claim 15: “Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) in the 16-week period rose 15% to $6.75”

CORROBORATED

The Motley Fool and TradingView News both explicitly confirm adjusted EPS rose 15% to $6.75.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — James D. Sinegal (born January 1, 1936) is an American businessman, co-founder and former CEO of the Costco Wholesale Corporation, an international retail chain. He served as Costco's president and CE…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Sinegal

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 16: “Membership fee income in the quarter grew 7.3% to $1.85 billion”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources confirm membership fee income grew 7.3% to $1.85 billion (or $1.849 billion).

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 17: “on an adjusted basis, which strips out the effects of foreign exchange and gasoline prices, comps increased 6.7%, and ticket size was only up 3.3%”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 18: “In fiscal year 26, we saw the penetration of U.S. member households that purchased gas reach an all-time high”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 19: “The team plans to open another 28 new locations in 2027, while relocating five more”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 20: “Costco plans to spend $7.5 billion in fiscal 2027 on capital expenditures... up from $6.4 billion in now-concluded FY26”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 21: “Costco currently has 939 locations worldwide”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 22: “Traffic to our site from AI search grew triple digits for the second consecutive quarter”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 23: “our member base under 40 has grown nearly 60% since Covid, increasing our total penetration of members under 40 to more than a quarter of our total base”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

check_circle

Claim 24: “Wall Street expectations of $94.86 billion, according to estimates compiled by LSEG”

CORROBORATED

TradingView News and TheStreet both report the revenue estimate as $94.86 billion (or $94.85 billion), attributing it to 'the Street' or LSEG estimates.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Gen Digital Inc. (formerly Symantec Corporation and NortonLifeLock Inc.) is a multinational software company co-headquartered in Tempe, Arizona, United States, and Prague, Czech Republic. The company …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gen_Digital

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web search NEUTRAL — How does LSEG estimate data compare to simple consensus - what is the SmartEstimates methodology? Simple consensus equally averages all analyst estimates regardless of quality or age.
https://www.lseg.com/en/data-catalogue/company-data

+ 2 more evidence sources

info

Claim 25: “Shares finished Thursday's regular session at $896.48”

SINGLE SOURCE

While sources discuss Costco shares trading on a Thursday, none provide the specific closing price of $896.48.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Costco shares may be trading lower after Walmart issued soft guidance, as both companies operate in the same sector, and investors may view Walmart's soft outlook as a sign of broader industry headwin…
https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43855318/whats-going-on-with-…

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web search NEUTRAL — But this year, Costco's stock has hit the skids. Over the last six months, its shares are down 9.3%, trailing the S&P 500's 17.3% gain. Yet revenue and net income continue to rise, and Costco's stores…
https://www.aol.com/articles/costco-down-10-6-months-0935000…

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web search NEUTRAL — Costco had 82.90 million members as of June 20, down 4% from the same period a year earlier. The delivery expansion comes against that backdrop, with greater online access potentially adding convenien…
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/costco-sha…

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.