As Warsh’s Fed faces pressure to act on inflation, these indicators show it’s at its lowest in years

Cnbc · Jul 31, 2026 · 756 words · By Jeff Cox

Economic Forecasting Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Inflation Metrics

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What to know about Economic Forecasting

Pricing data from June indicated that outside of some select items where costs continue to grow, inflation is trending back towards the Federal Reserve's inflation goal.

Claims checked 13

Techniques found 1

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Right coverage

Left20%

Center80%

Right0%

5 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Pricing data from June indicated that outside of some select items where costs continue to grow, inflation is trending back towards the Federal Reserve's inflation goal.

Why it matters

So-called trimmed mean measures, which exclude outliers in both price increases and decreases, showed inflation at its lowest since the early part of the decade.

Common ground

The Dallas Fed's measure, in fact, puts the one-month annualized rate for June at just 1.4%, down a whopping 1.3 percentage points from May and at its lowest level since November 2020.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Economic Forecasting story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that The measure specifically uses the personal consumption expenditures price index?
What happens next if the deal stalls, and who has the power to restart talks?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/31/these-fed-alternative-indicators-show-inflation-…

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 70% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 13 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 8

schedule Pending 3

verified Verified By Reference 2

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Claim 1: “The measure specifically uses the personal consumption expenditures price index”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources explicitly state that the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean measure is based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

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web search NEUTRAL — Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE. Excludes the largest monthly price increases and decreases, regardless of category. This means: If gasoline prices are stable, they remain in the calculation.
https://investinglive.com/news/dallas-fed-trimmed-mean-1-4-v…

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web search NEUTRAL — “The way the Dallas Fed trims its PCE measure is it essentially trims 24% off of the top and 31% off of the bottom.Plus, that this measure falls below core PCE is unusual. The trimmed mean historicall…
https://www.marketplace.org/story/2026/06/02/what-is-the-tri…

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web search NEUTRAL — The Dallas Fed's Trimmed Mean PCE inflation measure showed 2.3 percent. This isn't a rounding error or margin of uncertainty.The Dallas Fed's measure uses 177 PCE components and excludes price changes…
https://access.lightwards.com/article/two-inflation-measures…

verified

Claim 2: “Further, the 12-month rate, which Fed policymakers watch more closely, dipped to 2.2%, down 0.2 percentage point from a month ago to a bottom not seen since July 2021.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

While evidence for the one-month rate was found, the provided evidence for claim 1 does not contain the specific 12-month rate of 2.2% or the comparison to July 2021. The search results provided for this claim were either irrelevant (Dallas Cowboys/Mavericks) or repeated the one-month data.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Dallas Cowboys are a professional American football team based in the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex. The Cowboys compete in the National Football League (NFL) as a member of the National Football Co…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallas_Cowboys

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Dallas Mavericks, often referred to as the Mavs, are an American professional basketball team based in Dallas. The Mavericks compete in the National Basketball Association (NBA) as a member of the…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallas_Mavericks

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Jerome Hayden "Jay" Powell (born February 4, 1953) is an American central banker, attorney, and former investment banker who currently serves as a governor of the Federal Reserve. He was the 16th chai…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_Powell

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 3: “Logan was joined in her dissent by regional Presidents Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Beth Hammack of Cleveland”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 4: “For June, the trimmed CPI was at 2.63%, which, on an unrounded basis, was the lowest since May 2021.”

CORROBORATED

Although the specific 'Evidence for claim 8' section was empty, the evidence provided for claim 7 explicitly states: 'The Cleveland Fed’s 16% trimmed mean measure... registered 2.63% for June on an unrounded basis, its lowest since May 2021.'

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Claim 5: “That measure, though, uses the consumer price index as its benchmark.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources explicitly state that the Cleveland Fed's trimmed mean measure uses the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as its benchmark.

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web search NEUTRAL — Underlying Inflation Slowing. Trimmed mean measures, designed to filter out volatile price swings, indicate inflation is trending towards the Fed’s 2% target. Fed’s Methodological Review.
https://stockxpo.com/2026/07/31/inflations-lowest-in-years-w…

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web search NEUTRAL — Similarly, the Cleveland Fed has a “16% trimmed mean” that includes price changes below the 92nd percentile and above the 8th percentile. That measure, though, uses the consumer price index as its ben…
https://metapress.net/economy/2026/08/01/as-warshs-fed-faces…

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web search NEUTRAL — The Cleveland Fed’s 16% trimmed mean measure, which uses the consumer price index, registered 2.63% for June on an unrounded basis, its lowest since May 2021. Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst sa…
https://ozarab.media/fed-trimmed-measures-signal-lower-infla…

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Claim 6: “Logan, in fact, this week dissented from the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to keep its benchmark interest rate steady, preferring instead a quarter percentage point increase”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 7: “On an annual basis, the two gauges rose a respective 3.7% and 3.3%.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources confirm the annualized all-items PCE rose 3.7% in June. One source specifically mentions the core PCE in the same context of the Commerce Department data.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The PCE price index (PCEPI), also referred to as the PCE deflator, PCE price deflator, or the Implicit Price Deflator for Personal Consumption Expenditures (IPD for PCE) by the Bureau of Economic Anal…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_consumption_expenditu…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — PCE may stand for:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PCE

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Communist Party of Spain (Marxist-Leninist) (in Spanish: Partido Comunista de España (marxista-leninista), PCE (m-l)) is a communist political party in Spain, formed in 1964 through the merger of …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_Spain_(Marx…

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 8: “In the case of the Dallas measure, it tosses out 24% of the lower-end price readings and 31% at the high end”

CORROBORATED

Two separate web sources confirm the Dallas Fed's methodology of discarding 24% of lower-end and 31% of high-end readings.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (informally referred to as the Dallas Fed) is one of 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks that, along with the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., m…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_Dallas

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Lorie K. Logan (born 1972/1973) is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorie_K._Logan

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Robert Steven Kaplan (born 1957) is an American economist and banker who currently serves as the vice chairman of Goldman Sachs. Before that he served as the chief executive officer and president of t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Steven_Kaplan

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 9: “The Dallas Fed's measure, in fact, puts the one-month annualized rate for June at just 1.4%, down a whopping 1.3 percentage points from May and at its lowest level since November 2020.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent web sources (CNBC, Metals Mine, and a report on Inflation at Multi-Year Lows) confirm the Dallas Fed's one-month annualized rate for June was 1.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from May, and the lowest since November 2020.

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 10: “The Commerce Department said the all-items index fell 0.1% for the month, largely on a sharp decline in fuel costs, while the core level that excludes food and energy gained 0.1%.”

CORROBORATED

Trading Economics and other web results confirm the US PCE price index decreased 0.1% month-over-month in June 2026. The core PCE increase of 0.1% is supported by the context of the reports.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a family of various consumer price indices published monthly by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The most commonly used indices are t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index_in_the_Un…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Parents for Choice in Education (PCE) is an advocacy group headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah, that pushes for school choice programs, including private school vouchers, and supports anti-union leg…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parents_for_Choice_in_Educatio…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Somersworth is a city in Strafford County, New Hampshire, United States. The population was 11,855 at the 2020 census. Somersworth has the smallest area and third-lowest population of New Hampshire's …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somersworth,_New_Hampshire

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 11: “Lorie Logan, who as Dallas Fed president oversees its trimmed mean measure”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia explicitly identifies Lorie K. Logan as the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. This is further corroborated by multiple news cross-references.

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cross reference SUPPORTS — In a June speech, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said inflation is "taking too long" to return to the Federal Reserve's 2% target
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/interest-rates-may-stay-high…

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cross reference SUPPORTS — In a speech Wednesday in El Paso, Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan said that consumer spending remains robust, corporate earnings are 'going gangbusters' and the AI investment was continuing to boom.
https://axios.com/2026/06/04/inflation-rates-labor-market-fe…

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cross reference SUPPORTS — Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said in a June 3 speech in El Paso, Texas, "I am increasingly concerned that higher interest rates could be necessary later this year,"
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/interest-rates-may-stay-high…

+ 2 more evidence sources

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Claim 12: “inflation that has been running above target for more than five years.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 13: “Similarly, the Cleveland Fed has a "16% trimmed mean" that includes price changes below the 92nd percentile and above the 8th percentile.”

CORROBORATED

Web search results from the Cleveland Fed and St. Louis Fed (FRED) confirm the existence of the '16% trimmed-mean CPI' which excludes the most extreme monthly price changes (effectively the top and bottom 8%).

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web search NEUTRAL — Jul 14, 2026 · 16% Trimmed-Mean Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. The Trimmed-Mean CPI excludes the CPI components that sho…
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TRMMEANCPIM094SFRBCLE

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web search NEUTRAL — Jul 14, 2026 · Median CPI is the one-month inflation rate of the component whose expenditure weight is in the 50th percentile of price changes. 16 percent trimmed-mean CPI is a weighted average of one…
https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/median-cpi

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.