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4 reasons the ‘largest energy crisis’ on record has been held at bay – and why there’s pain to come

The Conversation · · 897 words · By Kevin Morrison
Economic Forecasting Geopolitical Conflict Impact Global Energy Security

The article discusses the global energy impact of a conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, noting that while an immediate catastrophic crisis was avoided, oil reserves are declining. It attributes the current stability to increased production from other nations, falling demand, and the use of strategic stockpiles.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-the-largest-energy-crisis-on-record-has-be…

analyticsAnalysis

20%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 90%
Minor concerns. Some persuasive language detected, but largely factual.

psychologyDetected Techniques

warning
Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
warning
Appeal to Fear 60% confidence
Building support by instilling anxiety or panic in the audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

22 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

schedule Pending 12
check_circle Corroborated 5
info Single Source 2
help Insufficient Evidence 2
verified Verified By Reference 1
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“The US-Israel war with Iran was predicted to cause the worst energy crisis in history, according to the International Energy Agency.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent web search results confirm that the IEA chief Fatih Birol described the energy crisis sparked by the US-Israel war with Iran as the 'biggest crisis in history' or 'worst on record'.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Since 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel have been engaged in a war with Iran and its regional allies. The conflict began when the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, targeting mili…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is an intergovernmental organization that seeks to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy and to inhibit its use for any military purpose, including n…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Atomic_Energy_Ag…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The International Energy Agency (IEA) is a Paris-based autonomous intergovernmental organization, established in 1974, that provides policy recommendations, analysis and data on the global energy sect…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Energy_Agency
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Around 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) and 25% of its seaborne oil supplies were affected.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm that approximately 20% of global LNG and 25% of seaborne oil supplies (specifically transiting the Strait of Hormuz) were affected or at risk.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — An LNG carrier is a tank ship designed for transporting liquefied natural gas (LNG). It is designed to transport LNG at cryogenic temperatures of around -162°C (-260°F). These vessels use heavily insu…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LNG_carrier
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas (predominantly methane, CH4, with some mixture of ethane, C2H6) that has been cooled to liquid form for ease and safety of non-pressurized storage or transpo…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquefied_natural_gas
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Alaska LNG is a proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) and natural gas pipeline project in the U.S. state of Alaska. The pipeline would be approximately 807-miles (1,299 km) from Prudhoe Bay on the Nort…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_LNG
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“The United States, the world’s top user of oil, is about to enter peak driving season from this weekend.”
CORROBORATED
Web search results explicitly state that the United States is the 'world's top user of oil'.
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web search NEUTRAL — United Airlines, Inc. is a major airline in the United States headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. It operates an extensive domestic and international route network across the United States and to dest…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Airlines
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web search NEUTRAL — Find the latest travel deals on flights, hotels and rental cars. Book airline tickets and MileagePlus award tickets to worldwide destinations.
https://www.united.com/ual/en/us/
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web search NEUTRAL — Find and compare United Airlines flights & tickets for all destinations, read 9,735 reviews, see United Airlines fees, cancellation policy and flight information | KAYAK
https://www.kayak.com/United-Airlines.UA.airline.html
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“Prices of Brent crude futures – the global oil benchmark – have risen 72% since January, from US$61 to around US$105 a barrel (A$85 to A$153) as of May 21.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple news reports (Izvestia, Reuters) confirm Brent crude futures rose to approximately $105 per barrel around May 12-21.
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web search NEUTRAL — Brent crude futures were up 30 cents, or 0.29%, at $104.51 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 31 cents, or 0.32%, to $98.38 at 0002 GMT. Both benchmarks had already surged nearly 2.8% in …
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-b…
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web search NEUTRAL — Oil prices rose by almost 1% amid truce talks between the United States and Iran. Brent futures rose to $105.07 per barrel, WTI — to $99.06. This was reported by the Reuters news agency on May 12.
https://en.iz.ru/en/2095367/2026-05-12/brent-crude-futures-r…
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web search NEUTRAL — Brent crude futures climbed above $100 per barrel on Friday, recouping some losses from earlier in the week as fresh clashes between the US and Iran threatened to derail diplomatic efforts to end the …
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
verified
“Other analysts expected oil prices to approach the record levels of around US$147 a barrel (A$206) reached in 2008”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The claim that oil reached record levels of around $147 per barrel in 2008 is supported by reference material regarding the global commodity boom of 2008.
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web search NEUTRAL — United States crude oil prices averaged $30 a barrel in 2003 due to political instability within various oil producing nations.The price on NYMEX has been above US$50 per barrel since March 5, 2005. I…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_oil_market_chronology_fr…
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web search NEUTRAL — On Friday morning, Brent crude saw a 1.9 per cent rise, reaching $97.79 a barrel. It had fallen as low as about $90 on Wednesday after the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, which had been si…
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/north-sea-oil-prices-surge-str…
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web search NEUTRAL — At the peak of the boom in global commodity demand in 2008, coal prices rose to almost $200 a metric ton, a price matching the $147-per-barrel for oil at the time. Oil prices tumbled 70 percent when t…
https://peakoil.com/consumption/coal-and-nuclear-power-cant-…
info
“In reality, prices have yet to pass the high point of US$120 a barrel (A$168) seen in 2022.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While general oil price charts were provided, none of the provided evidence snippets specifically confirm or deny that $120 was the exact high point in 2022.
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web search NEUTRAL — Oil is a liquid with varying degrees of viscosity depending on temperature. Oil is any nonpolar chemical substance that is composed primarily of hydrocarbons and is hydrophobic and lipophilic.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil
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web search NEUTRAL — Oilprice.com offers real-time oil prices for over 150 global crude blends and indexes, with live charts, comparisons, and smart analytical tools used worldwide.
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/45
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web search NEUTRAL — Oil Price: Get all information on the Price of Oil including News, Charts and Realtime Quotes.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?ty…
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“Fracking has turned the US from major oil importer into the world’s biggest producer and turned Argentina into an oil exporter.”
CORROBORATED
Web search results confirm the US is the world's largest oil producer. While the provided snippets don't explicitly mention Argentina's status as an exporter due to fracking, the US portion is corroborated.
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web search NEUTRAL — A world map of countries by oil exportation, 2022.Oil in this list refers to base crude oil only, not refined petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel and airplane fuel. In 2024, Saudi Arabia was t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_expor…
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web search NEUTRAL — The United States, the world’s top user of oil, is about to enter peak driving season from this weekend. If the Iran war drags on, as seems likely, a true global crisis will be hard to avoid.
https://theconversation.com/4-reasons-the-largest-energy-cri…
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web search NEUTRAL — Although the US is the world’s largest oil producer, its domestic oil consumption far outpaces its homegrown output. To meet its own oil demand, the US must rely on oil imports from countries.
https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/energy-in…
info
“Over the first ten months of 2025, global oil stocks rose an average of 1.2 million barrels a day.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The search results for 'global oil stocks 2025' returned generic definitions of 'global' and unrelated company information, providing no data on oil stock averages for 2025.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Global Industrial offers over 75 years of expertise in industrial and commercial products. Shop our extensive selection with exceptional service and fast delivery.
https://www.globalindustrial.com/
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web search NEUTRAL — 3 days ago · The meaning of GLOBAL is of, relating to, or involving the entire world : worldwide. How to use global in a sentence.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/global
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web search NEUTRAL — We provide quality financial services including credit cards, home loans, auto loans, business accounts, and more with personalized service.
https://www.globalcu.org/
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“China was almost entirely responsible, adding around 1.1 million barrels a day to its stockpiles.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results regarding China's specific oil stockpile additions in 2025.
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“Before the war began in February, both Iran and Russia were looking for buyers of their sanctioned oil.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was provided in the search results to confirm or deny the activities of Iran and Russia regarding sanctioned oil buyers prior to February.
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“Oil producers in the Middle East extract about 30% of the world’s oil.”
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“US sanctions on Russian oil have been temporarily lifted, boosting global oil supply.”
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“Russia’s oil facilities have been repeatedly hit by Ukrainian drone strikes this year.”
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“In the Americas, the US, Argentina, Brazil and Guyana have all upped output to partially fill the supply gap.”
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“Global demand for oil is expected to fall more than 2% this quarter.”
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“76 countries have introduced emergency measures to cut oil demand further.”
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“In March, demand fell 18% below the previous month. Diesel use actually rose 4% that month.”
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“In March, the IEA brokered the largest releases of global oil stockpiles on record.”
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“China, the world’s largest oil importer, has dipped into its enormous 1.4 billion barrel stockpile and cut oil buying.”
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“Global stockpiles are being used up at record rates and are now close to their lowest level in eight years.”
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“At the start of the war 12 weeks ago, China had around 82 days’ worth of supply.”
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“Given China uses around 17 million barrels of oil each day”
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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.