“The attacks by US-Israeli forces on Iran, and the chokehold by the US on Cuba, have seen many South Africans struggling to square their opposition to imperialism against the presence of undemocratic elements in Cuba and Iran.”

“Interestingly, the Iranian and Cuban revolutions that produced these regimes were, in important respects, made partly by the US, not as architect, but as antagonist.”

“Iran’s 1979 revolution, which ushered in Ayatollah Khomeini’s rule, was a fusion of Islamist theology and Third World anti-imperialism.”

“US actions such as the CIA-orchestrated coup of 1953 that overthrew a democratically elected prime minister, Mohammad Mossadeq, and reinstated the Shah, the US tilt toward Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War, and decades of sanctions all reinforced Tehran’s belief that for Iran to survive it had to confront the US-led order.”

“The Bay of Pigs fiasco of 1961, when the CIA attempted to overthrow the newly installed Cuban government, the CIA’s decades-long campaign of sabotage and assassination, and the ongoing economic embargo are but a few examples of how the US tried to crush Cuban independence.”

“Iran has over the past two decades seen courageous flashes of opposition to the government, including the Green Movement of 2009, the 2019 fuel protests, and the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom uprising. It is estimated the protests of 2025-26 involved five million participants across all 31 provinces.”

“According to the New York Times on Sunday, Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad, had hoped bombing Iran would ignite public protests, leading to the collapse of the government.”

“The belief that Israel and the US could help instigate widespread revolt was a foundational flaw in the preparations for a war that has spread across the Middle East”

“However, as Middle East specialist Vali Nasr points out, this strategy has backfired terribly, with the combination of bombardment, infrastructure destruction and support for opposition movements producing Iranian national resistance rather than democratic transition.”

“Cuba’s opposition reached new heights on July 11 2021 when protesters took to the streets chanting Patria y Vida! (Homeland and Life!) and demanding regime change.”

“South African analyst and academic Richard Pithouse argues South Africa must act on the basis of the principles exemplified by Nelson Mandela’s presidency, as seen in an interview Madiba gave Ted Koppel on Nightline in 1990, saying those who gave no support in the struggle have no standing to dictate who South Africa’s friends should be now.”

“South Africa should distinguish solidarity with the Iranian people from endorsing the Islamic Republic, potentially supporting a transitional political framework for Iran’s democratic opposition.”

“It has taken a balanced position in the Russia-Ukraine conflict despite the former Soviet Union’s support for the anti-apartheid movement, coming out clearly in favour of a peaceful resolution.”

“The Southern African region benefited from decades of Cuban international solidarity. In 1975-91, 337,000 Cuban soldiers and 43,000 civilians were deployed to defend Angola against apartheid South Africa and its American sponsors.”

“Similarly, Cubans are concerned about what might replace the current government in the event of Venezuela-like regime change.”

“But the severe repression meted out, and the opposition’s inability to convert the protests into mass mobilisation to confront the government, has meant Cuba remains in a fragile, precarious situation.”

“After decades of Israeli support for the apartheid regime, SA has taken Israel to the International Court of Justice alleging genocide in Gaza.”

“South Africa should consider forming an AU coalition against unilateral US sanctions on Cuba, Venezuela, and Iran, framing them as violations of civilian rights.”

“Abba Omar is the director of operations at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection.”

“The risk of Iranian state collapse producing not democracy but chaos — a Lebanon-isation or Iraq-isation of a country of 87-million — leading to a permanently unstable situation is possible.”

“South Africa has had to review relations that existed during the days of apartheid when looking at alliances now.”