World Cup 2026 picks, predictions: Best long-shot bets and sleepers

Nypost · 🇩🇪 public Germany · Jun 09, 2026 · 904 words · By Michael Leboff

World Cup Underdogs Sports Betting

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Daily briefing

What to know about World Cup Underdogs

We’ve yet to see a genuine long shot win the World Cup.

Claims checked 23

Techniques found 2

Topics 2

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center0%

Right100%

1 source compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

We’ve yet to see a genuine long shot win the World Cup.

Why it matters

Italy’s triumph in 1982 was the biggest surprise in the tournament’s history, at least according to the bookmakers, and The Azzurri were just 18/1 that year.

Common ground

Thirteen of the last 15 champions boasted single-digit odds, with Italy again upsetting the odds as an 11/1 winner in 2006.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Glittering Generalities: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this World Cup Underdogs story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that Italy’s triumph in 1982 was the biggest surprise in the tournament’s history, at least according to the bookmakers, and The Azzurri were just 18/1 that year?
How does this story connect World Cup Underdogs with Sports Betting over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://nypost.com/2026/06/09/betting/world-cup-2026-betting-predictions-best-lo…

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 2 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

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Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Glittering Generalities 70% confidence

Using vague, emotionally appealing phrases ('freedom', 'justice') without specifics.

Why it matters: Recognizing glittering generalities helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 23 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 13

check_circle Corroborated 3

verified Verified By Reference 3

info Single Source 3

help Insufficient Evidence 1

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Claim 1: “Italy’s triumph in 1982 was the biggest surprise in the tournament’s history, at least according to the bookmakers, and The Azzurri were just 18/1 that year.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web search results confirm Italy won the 1982 World Cup and specifically cite the 18/1 betting odds.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 1982 FIFA World Cup was the 12th FIFA World Cup, the quadrennial football tournament for men's senior national teams, and was played in Spain from 13 June to 11 July 1982. The tournament was won b…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_FIFA_World_Cup

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 1982 FIFA World Cup final was a football match contested between Italy and West Germany. It was the final match of the 1982 FIFA World Cup tournament and was played on 11 July 1982 at the Santiago…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_FIFA_World_Cup_final

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Italy is one of the most successful national teams in the history of the FIFA World Cup, having won four titles (1934, 1938, 1982, 2006), just one fewer than Brazil. The team has been present in 18 ou…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italy_at_the_FIFA_World_Cup

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 2: “Moriyasu has been in this post since 2018”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 3: “Experienced players like Granit Xhaka, Manuel Akanji, and Remo Freuler will take control of the center of the pitch, while striker Breel Embolo is a chore to deal with”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 4: “United States (70/1, FanDuel)”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 5: “Johan Manzambi, 20, has a chance to be a breakout star at this tournament.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 6: “The last four winners (Argentina in 2022, France in 2018, Germany in 2014, and Spain in 2010) had average odds of +550.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided evidence does not contain any betting odds or averages for the winners of 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022. Search results were irrelevant (e.g., Husqvarna chainsaws).

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2022 FIFA World Cup was the 22nd FIFA World Cup, the quadrennial world championship for national football teams organised by FIFA. It took place in Qatar from 20 November to 18 December 2022, afte…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The knockout stage of the 2022 FIFA World Cup was the second and final stage of the competition, following the group stage. Played from 3 to 18 December, the knockout stage ended with the final, held …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_s…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The decision of FIFA to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar sparked a number of concerns and controversies regarding both Qatar's suitability as a host country and the fairness of the FIFA World Cup…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_2022_FIFA_World_Cup_co…

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 7: “their group, which includes Bosnia, Canada, and Qatar.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 8: “The last World Cup saw two shockers eliminated in the semifinals: Morocco, which was a 200/1 long shot to win it all before the tournament, and Croatia (50/1).”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia confirms that Morocco and Croatia both advanced from Group F and reached the knockout stages/semifinals of the 2022 World Cup. While the specific odds (200/1 and 50/1) aren't in the Wikipedia snippet, the event of them reaching the semifinals is confirmed.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Matches in Group F of the 2022 FIFA World Cup took place from 23 November to 1 December 2022. The group consisted of Belgium, Canada, Morocco and Croatia. The top two teams, Morocco and Croatia, advan…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_F

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The national team of Croatia has competed in the FIFA World Cup seven times, finishing on the podium on three occasions. Since gaining independence in 1991, Croatia has qualified for every edition of …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia_at_the_FIFA_World_Cup

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The FIFA World Cup, often simply called the World Cup, is an international association football competition contested by the men's national teams of the members of Fédération Internationale de Footbal…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morocco_at_the_FIFA_World_Cup

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 9: “Croatia got even closer to the trophy in 2018, finishing as runners-up to France despite going off with 33/1 odds.”

CORROBORATED

The claim that Croatia were runners-up in 2018 is verified by Wikipedia and other news sources. The specific 33/1 odds are corroborated by the Nypost cross-reference.

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web search NEUTRAL — Under Dalic's tenure, Croatia finished runners-up at the 2018 World Cup and third in the 2022 edition in Qatar, but the team exited the tournament without a medal this time around.
https://www.omanobserver.om/article/1192518/sports/worldcup/…

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web search NEUTRAL — The Croatia starting lineup before the 2018 FIFA World Cup final against France.Croatia's best result since gaining admission into FIFA in 1992 was a runner-up finish in 2018, where they lost the fina…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia_at_the_FIFA_World_Cup

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web search NEUTRAL — 2018 World Cup runner-up Dalic ends nine-year tenure with historic achievements. By OSEN.He continued, "Every victory, major tournament qualification, three medals, and the glorious nights when Croati…
https://www.chosun.com/english/sports-en/2026/07/09/AV543VRM…

+ 1 more evidence source

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Claim 10: “Switzerland (80/1, bet365)”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 11: “Kockasti were also semi-finalists in 1998, when they began the tournament as 66/1 outsiders.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence does not contain confirmation of Croatia's 1998 semifinal run or their 66/1 odds; the search results discuss 2026 and 2018.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Jun 19, 2026 ... 2026 World Cup parlay, best bets: Top picks for Friday matches include USA vs. Australia, Morocco... We have created a strong World Cup ...
https://www.facebook.com/CBSSportsGolazo/posts/we-have-creat…

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web search NEUTRAL — Jun 10, 2026 ... ... World Cup for the first time since 1998. He scored nearly half ... reach the World Cup semifinals. He's won a cabinet full of trophies ...
https://sports.yahoo.com/soccer/article/2026-world-cup-viewe…

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web search NEUTRAL — 7 days ago ... ... Semi-finals of the 2018 FIFA World Cup starting on Thursday in Russia. ... semi-final match from 1998 produces a similar outcome 20 years later.
https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera/posts/a-group-of-shamans-…

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Claim 12: “Senegal was placed in the closest thing to a “Group of Death” in this tournament with France, Norway, and Iraq”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 13: “Senegal (125/1, FanDuel)”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 14: “Thirteen of the last 15 champions boasted single-digit odds, with Italy again upsetting the odds as an 11/1 winner in 2006.”

SINGLE SOURCE

While Wikipedia confirms Italy won the 2006 World Cup, there is no evidence in the provided search results to corroborate the specific betting odds of 11/1.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The final match of the 2006 FIFA World Cup, the 18th edition of FIFA's competition for national football teams, was played at the Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany, on 9 July 2006, and was contested b…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_Cup_final

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2006 FIFA World Cup was the 18th FIFA World Cup, the quadrennial international football world championship tournament. It was held from 9 June to 9 July 2006 in Germany, which had won the right to…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_Cup

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+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 15: “of that group, Spain was the only outright favorite to lift the trophy.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

No evidence was provided regarding the 'outright favorite' status of Spain relative to other winners in those specific years.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Morocco–Portugal–Spain 2030 FIFA World Cup bid, officially known as Yalla Vamos 2030, was a successful bid to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup by Morocco, Portugal and Spain. The bid was first announc…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morocco–Portugal–Spain_2030_FI…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Spain is one of the most experienced nations in FIFA World Cup history, having made 17 appearances in the tournament's 23 editions. Spain has reached the final twice, winning the title on both occasio…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spain_at_the_FIFA_World_Cup

+ 3 more evidence sources

help

Claim 16: “Japan (60/1, Caesars)”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found for this claim in the search results.

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Claim 17: “Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 18: “Christian Pulisic, Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie, Chris Richards, Antonee Robinson, and New Yorker Folarin Balogun headline the best roster the States has ever sent to a World Cup.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 19: “Japan is in a tough group with the Netherlands, Sweden, and Tunisia”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 20: “Sadio Mane will lead the line... Iliman Ndiaye is the magic man, his Everton teammate Idrisse Gana Gueye is the engine, and Pape Gueye does a bit of everything.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 21: “In 2010, it was Uruguay that gatecrashed the final four as a 100/1 roughie.”

CORROBORATED

The Nypost cross-reference explicitly states Uruguay reached the 2010 semifinals as a 100/1 long shot, and the Malta Independent confirms they reached the semifinals.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Uruguay reached the World Cup semifinals for the first time since 1970, beating Ghana 4-2 on penalties after a 1-1 draw yesterday.
https://www.independent.com.mt/articles/2010-07-03/others/ur…

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web search NEUTRAL — Spain are through to the semifinals! Up next is France vs Spain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ia1S1IF6jk4

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web search NEUTRAL — The semifinals will also mark the final World Cup matches at two host venues. Dallas Stadium in Arlington, Texas, will have staged nine matches, while Atlanta Stadium in Georgia will conclude its tour…
https://www.beinsports.com/en-us/soccer/fifa-world-cup-2026/…

+ 1 more evidence source

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Claim 22: “Murat Yakin, a former Swiss international, sets his team up”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 23: “Eight years earlier, we saw a pair of triple-digit long shots make it to the semifinals in one of the most controversial tournaments ever: South Korea (200/1) and Turkey (100/1).”

SINGLE SOURCE

The Nypost cross-reference confirms South Korea (200/1) and Turkey (100/1) were semifinalists in 2002, but no other independent source in the provided evidence corroborates this.

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cross reference SUPPORTS — South Korea (200/1) and Turkey (100/1) were both semifinalists that year [2002].
https://nypost.com/2026/05/21/betting/the-betting-history-of…

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.