With wind in its sails, One Nation looks to replicate Farrer success in Victoria – and federally

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · May 10, 2026 · 864 words · By Josh Sunman

Political Stability of One Nation Regional Dissatisfaction Electoral Shift

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What to know about Political Stability of One Nation

The article analyzes the victory of One Nation's David Farley in the Farrer byelection, noting a significant shift in voter support from the Coalition to the right-wing populist party. It discusses the regional issues driving this result and the potential long-term implications for the Coalition and Labor parties in future elections.

Propaganda risk 20%

Claims checked 17

Techniques found 1

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Right coverage

Left33%

Center67%

Right0%

3 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

One Nation’s surge can no longer be seen as a blip or an aberration.

Why it matters

As the results in the Farrer byelection showed, the right-wing populist party – which has been hovering on the fringes of Australian politics for 30 years – is now a serious electoral force.

Common ground

While the byelection was considered likely to be a close contest between One Nation’s David Farley and independent Michelle Milthorpe, in the end voters delivered an easy win to Farley.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Political Stability of One Nation story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that It also represented the first seat lost to an incumbent government in a byelection since 1921?
How does this story connect Political Stability of One Nation with Regional Dissatisfaction over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/with-wind-in-its-sails-one-nation-looks-to-replicate…

analyticsAnalysis

20%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 90%

Minor concerns. Some persuasive language detected, but largely factual.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 17 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 7

info Single Source 3

verified Verified By Reference 3

help Insufficient Evidence 2

check_circle Corroborated 2

help

Claim 1: “It also represented the first seat lost to an incumbent government in a byelection since 1921.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided or found for the claim regarding the 1921 by-election record.

info

Claim 2: “Primary votes for One Nation surged from 6.6% in the 2025 election, to 39.4% as of Sunday morning.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The evidence mentions One Nation's national primary vote was 6.4% in 2025 and that they won the by-election, but the specific jump to 39.4% in Farrer is not corroborated by multiple independent sources in the provided text.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — A by-election was held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of Parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer. One Nation candidate David Farley was elected, defeating independent …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Farrer_by-election

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Division of Farrer is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. Located in the southwestern part of the state bordering both South Australia and Victoria, at 126,563 km2 (4…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Farrer

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Pauline Hanson's One Nation (PHON), commonly known as One Nation (ON), is a right-wing populist political party in Australia. It is led by its founder Pauline Hanson, who has been a senator for Queens…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Nation

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 3: “One Nation’s position of capping net migration at 130,000.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 4: “In Aston, the Liberals lost a seat in Melbourne’s leafy eastern suburbs they had held since 1990.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided or found for the claim regarding the seat of Aston.

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Claim 5: “His is the first One Nation victory in a federal House of Representatives seat.”

CORROBORATED

Wikipedia confirms David Farley was elected in the 2026 Farrer by-election. An ABC News report explicitly states he became the 'first One Nation candidate ever elected to the House of Representatives'.

menu_book

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 6: “stating net annual migration of approximately 306,000 per year was “probably not” too high.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 7: “Labor went on to hold the seat in the 2025 federal election, also gaining the seats of Deakin and Menzies in eastern Melbourne.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 8: “Farley had been affiliated with the Nationals.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 9: “Results on Sunday morning showed Farley attained 57.3% of the two-candidate preferred vote against Milthorpe’s 42.7%.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

While sources confirm David Farley won and defeated Michelle Milthorpe, the specific percentage figures (57.3% vs 42.7%) are not present in the provided evidence.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — David Farley is an Australian politician who has been the member of Parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer since 2026.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Farley_(politician)

menu_book

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 10: “Farrer is centred around the inland City of Albury and surrounding agricultural areas in south-west New South Wales.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia and ABC News both confirm Farrer is in south-west New South Wales and includes regional centers such as Albury.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The Division of Farrer is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales.The division was created in 1949 and is named for William Farrer, an agricultural scientist. It has always be…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Farrer

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Southern and Western NSW.Farrer was one of the new electorates created on the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. It is named after William James Farrer, noted wheat breeder and experim…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/far…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — * Farrer is located in southwest NSW, bordering Victoria and South Australia, taking in large regional centres such as Albury, Griffith and Deniliquin.
https://www.huntervalleynews.net.au/story/9242817/voters-to-…

verified

Claim 11: “Farley received approximately 60% of Coalition preferences.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Evidence mentions that Coalition preferences may help elect One Nation, but the specific figure of 'approximately 60%' is not found in the provided evidence.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 48th Parliament of Australia is the current meeting of the legislative branch of the Commonwealth of Australia, composed of the Australian Senate and the Australian House of Representatives. The 4…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/48th_Parliament_of_Australia

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — A federal election is scheduled to be held by 2028 to elect members of the House of Representatives and half of the Senate to the 49th Parliament of Australia. The incumbent Labor government, led by P…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_electi…

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 12: “The Liberal total declined from the 43.4% primary achieved by Sussan Ley in 2025, to an anaemic 12.4% for new Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources confirm the figures: one source notes Sussan Ley's 43.4% primary in 2025 and another explicitly states Raissa Butkowski drew 'just 12.4% of the vote', noting a collapse of 31%.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — On 15 March, the Liberal Party preselected lawyer for the Hume Riverina Community Legal Service and City of Albury councillor Raissa Butkowski to contest the by-election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Farrer_by-election

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — In the 2025 election, Ley recorded a 43.4 per cent primary vote for the Liberals, while Milthorpe came in second with almost 20 per cent of the primary vote.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/farrer-loc…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The Liberal primary vote collapsed by 31 per cent, with candidate Raissa Butkowski drawing just 12.4 per cent of the vote.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/one-nation-wins-farrer-a…

schedule

Claim 13: “In Wentworth, Kerryn Phelps defeated the Liberals in a byelection caused by the resignation of Malcolm Turnbull.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 14: “his involvement with the Labor party as recently as 2023, his consideration of an independent candidacy, and his endorsement of Milthorpe in 2025.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 15: “Milthorpe’s primary increased 20% to 28.4%”

SINGLE SOURCE

One web search result mentions Milthorpe's primary vote was 'about 28%', which aligns with the 28.4% claim, but this is not corroborated by a second independent source.

menu_book

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 16: “after its breakthrough in the Queensland 1998 state election, none of the 11 members the party elected remained in the organisation throughout the parliamentary term.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 17: “Farrer is now the third strong result for One Nation in 2026, following the South Australian state election and the Nepean state byelection in Victoria.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence for this claim consists of irrelevant search results about 'Irys Airdrop' and NFTs, providing no information on South Australian or Victorian elections.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Nov 24, 2025 · Claims Information Official Link: https://claim.irys.xyz This is the ONLY valid link for claiming. Be vigilant against phishing sites and unsolicited DMs. Never share your private key, …
https://irys.xyz/blog/irys-airdrop-guide

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Nov 14, 2025 · IMPORTANT SECURITY INFORMATION Only use official links posted through our verified channels: Twitter...
https://irys.xyz/blog/genesis-nft

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Jun 17, 2025 · Long term, all blockchains generate revenue from fee markets. That's inevitable. Whats incredible ab...
https://irys.xyz/blog/why-irys-can-offer-onchain-data-at-cos…

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.