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With wind in its sails, One Nation looks to replicate Farrer success in Victoria – and federally

The Conversation · · 864 words · By Josh Sunman
Political Stability of One Nation Regional Dissatisfaction Electoral Shift

The article analyzes the victory of One Nation's David Farley in the Farrer byelection, noting a significant shift in voter support from the Coalition to the right-wing populist party. It discusses the regional issues driving this result and the potential long-term implications for the Coalition and Labor parties in future elections.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/with-wind-in-its-sails-one-nation-looks-to-replicate…

analyticsAnalysis

20%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 90%
Minor concerns. Some persuasive language detected, but largely factual.

psychologyDetected Techniques

warning
Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

17 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

schedule Pending 7
verified Verified By Reference 3
info Single Source 3
check_circle Corroborated 2
help Insufficient Evidence 2
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“His is the first One Nation victory in a federal House of Representatives seat.”
CORROBORATED
Wikipedia confirms David Farley was elected in the 2026 Farrer by-election. An ABC News report explicitly states he became the 'first One Nation candidate ever elected to the House of Representatives'.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Division of Farrer is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. Located in the southwestern part of the state bordering both South Australia and Victoria, at 126,563 km2 (4…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Farrer
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Pauline Hanson's One Nation (PHON), commonly known as One Nation (ON), is a right-wing populist political party in Australia. It is led by its founder Pauline Hanson, who has been a senator for Queens…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Nation
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A by-election was held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of Parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer. One Nation candidate David Farley was elected, defeating independent …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Farrer_by-election
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
“Results on Sunday morning showed Farley attained 57.3% of the two-candidate preferred vote against Milthorpe’s 42.7%.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
While sources confirm David Farley won and defeated Michelle Milthorpe, the specific percentage figures (57.3% vs 42.7%) are not present in the provided evidence.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A by-election was held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of Parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer. One Nation candidate David Farley was elected, defeating independent …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Farrer_by-election
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — David Farley is an Australian politician who has been the member of Parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer since 2026.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Farley_(politician)
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Division of Farrer is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. Located in the southwestern part of the state bordering both South Australia and Victoria, at 126,563 km2 (4…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Farrer
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
“Primary votes for One Nation surged from 6.6% in the 2025 election, to 39.4% as of Sunday morning.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence mentions One Nation's national primary vote was 6.4% in 2025 and that they won the by-election, but the specific jump to 39.4% in Farrer is not corroborated by multiple independent sources in the provided text.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A by-election was held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of Parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer. One Nation candidate David Farley was elected, defeating independent …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Farrer_by-election
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Division of Farrer is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. Located in the southwestern part of the state bordering both South Australia and Victoria, at 126,563 km2 (4…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Farrer
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Pauline Hanson's One Nation (PHON), commonly known as One Nation (ON), is a right-wing populist political party in Australia. It is led by its founder Pauline Hanson, who has been a senator for Queens…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Nation
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
“Milthorpe’s primary increased 20% to 28.4%”
SINGLE SOURCE
One web search result mentions Milthorpe's primary vote was 'about 28%', which aligns with the 28.4% claim, but this is not corroborated by a second independent source.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A federal election is scheduled to be held by 2028 to elect members of the House of Representatives and half of the Senate to the 49th Parliament of Australia. The incumbent Labor government, led by P…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_electi…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A by-election was held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of Parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer. One Nation candidate David Farley was elected, defeating independent …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Farrer_by-election
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Division of Farrer is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. Located in the southwestern part of the state bordering both South Australia and Victoria, at 126,563 km2 (4…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Farrer
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
“Farley received approximately 60% of Coalition preferences.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Evidence mentions that Coalition preferences may help elect One Nation, but the specific figure of 'approximately 60%' is not found in the provided evidence.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A by-election was held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of Parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer. One Nation candidate David Farley was elected, defeating independent …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Farrer_by-election
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 48th Parliament of Australia is the current meeting of the legislative branch of the Commonwealth of Australia, composed of the Australian Senate and the Australian House of Representatives. The 4…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/48th_Parliament_of_Australia
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A federal election is scheduled to be held by 2028 to elect members of the House of Representatives and half of the Senate to the 49th Parliament of Australia. The incumbent Labor government, led by P…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_electi…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“The Liberal total declined from the 43.4% primary achieved by Sussan Ley in 2025, to an anaemic 12.4% for new Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm the figures: one source notes Sussan Ley's 43.4% primary in 2025 and another explicitly states Raissa Butkowski drew 'just 12.4% of the vote', noting a collapse of 31%.
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web search NEUTRAL — On 15 March, the Liberal Party preselected lawyer for the Hume Riverina Community Legal Service and City of Albury councillor Raissa Butkowski to contest the by-election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Farrer_by-election
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web search NEUTRAL — In the 2025 election, Ley recorded a 43.4 per cent primary vote for the Liberals, while Milthorpe came in second with almost 20 per cent of the primary vote.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/farrer-loc…
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web search NEUTRAL — The Liberal primary vote collapsed by 31 per cent, with candidate Raissa Butkowski drawing just 12.4 per cent of the vote.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/one-nation-wins-farrer-a…
info
“Farrer is now the third strong result for One Nation in 2026, following the South Australian state election and the Nepean state byelection in Victoria.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence for this claim consists of irrelevant search results about 'Irys Airdrop' and NFTs, providing no information on South Australian or Victorian elections.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Nov 24, 2025 · Claims Information Official Link: https://claim.irys.xyz This is the ONLY valid link for claiming. Be vigilant against phishing sites and unsolicited DMs. Never share your private key, …
https://irys.xyz/blog/irys-airdrop-guide
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Nov 14, 2025 · IMPORTANT SECURITY INFORMATION Only use official links posted through our verified channels: Twitter...
https://irys.xyz/blog/genesis-nft
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Jun 17, 2025 · Long term, all blockchains generate revenue from fee markets. That's inevitable. Whats incredible ab...
https://irys.xyz/blog/why-irys-can-offer-onchain-data-at-cos…
verified
“Farrer is centred around the inland City of Albury and surrounding agricultural areas in south-west New South Wales.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Wikipedia and ABC News both confirm Farrer is in south-west New South Wales and includes regional centers such as Albury.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — The Division of Farrer is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales.The division was created in 1949 and is named for William Farrer, an agricultural scientist. It has always be…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Farrer
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Southern and Western NSW.Farrer was one of the new electorates created on the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. It is named after William James Farrer, noted wheat breeder and experim…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/far…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — * Farrer is located in southwest NSW, bordering Victoria and South Australia, taking in large regional centres such as Albury, Griffith and Deniliquin.
https://www.huntervalleynews.net.au/story/9242817/voters-to-…
help
“In Aston, the Liberals lost a seat in Melbourne’s leafy eastern suburbs they had held since 1990.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was provided or found for the claim regarding the seat of Aston.
help
“It also represented the first seat lost to an incumbent government in a byelection since 1921.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was provided or found for the claim regarding the 1921 by-election record.
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“Labor went on to hold the seat in the 2025 federal election, also gaining the seats of Deakin and Menzies in eastern Melbourne.”
PENDING
schedule
“In Wentworth, Kerryn Phelps defeated the Liberals in a byelection caused by the resignation of Malcolm Turnbull.”
PENDING
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“after its breakthrough in the Queensland 1998 state election, none of the 11 members the party elected remained in the organisation throughout the parliamentary term.”
PENDING
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“Farley had been affiliated with the Nationals.”
PENDING
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“his involvement with the Labor party as recently as 2023, his consideration of an independent candidacy, and his endorsement of Milthorpe in 2025.”
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schedule
“stating net annual migration of approximately 306,000 per year was “probably not” too high.”
PENDING
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“One Nation’s position of capping net migration at 130,000.”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.