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Winners and loses from the Iran war (spoiler: We all lose)

Daily Maverick · · 2454 words · By J Brooks Spector
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-03-26-winners-and-loses-from-the-ir…

fact_checkFact-Check Results

13 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

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help Insufficient Evidence 2
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“Psychologist William James had written a widely read essay arguing that sports was a better, more moral, more rational behaviour compared with war.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results confirm that William James wrote an essay titled 'The Moral Equivalent of War,' which compares war to other activities, indicating a comparison of behavior. The evidence points to the existence and subject matter of this essay.
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web search NEUTRAL — Jun 20, 2023 · The Moral Equivalent of War by William James The Progress of Science → The Moral Equivalent of War [1] By WILLIAM JAMES
https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Popular_Science_Monthly/Volum…
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web search NEUTRAL — Edited and with an introduction by Harrison Ross Steeves (1881-1981) and Frank Humphrey Ristine (1884-1958) The Moral Equivalent of War, the last public utterance of William James, is significant as e…
https://archive.org/download/moral_equivalent_dew_librivox/M…
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web search NEUTRAL — James, William. Essays of Faith and Morals, “The Moral Equivalent of War.” Edited by Ralph Barton Perry. Cleveland, Ohio: The World Publishing Company, 1962. William James (1842-1910), brother of nove…
https://www.lancasterlawoffice.com/wp-content/uploads/James-…
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“The US has demonstrated an overwhelming tactical prowess, delivering massive firepower against Iranian missile and drone launching sites.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results describe US strikes against Iranian missile and drone launching sites using significant firepower. One source mentions 'Operation Epic Fury' involving US air, sea, and missile power striking Iran.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Relations between Iran and the United States in modern-day are unsettled and have a troubled history. They began in the mid-to-late 19th century, when Iran was known to the Western world as Qajar Pers…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–United_States_relations
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — On June 22, 2025, the United States Air Force and Navy attacked three nuclear facilities in Iran as part of the Twelve-Day War, under the code name Operation Midnight Hammer. The Fordow Uranium Enrich…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_States_strikes_on_…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — On April 12, 2025, Iran and the United States began a series of negotiations aimed at reaching a nuclear peace agreement, following a letter from US president Donald Trump to Iranian supreme leader Al…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025–2026_Iran–United_States_n…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Targets struck by Americans have also included naval forces, government defence and security offices, and military command and control sites.”
CORROBORATED
Web search results indicate that US attacks targeted Iranian naval forces, including strikes on a drone carrier and general strikes on naval bases, supporting the claim that naval and defense infrastructure were targeted.
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web search NEUTRAL — The U.S. has continued attacks on Iranian naval forces, including strikes on a container ship converted into an aircraft carrier for drones and widespread strikes on naval bases along the edge of ...
https://news.usni.org/2026/03/02/iranian-naval-forces-are-ma…
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web search NEUTRAL — The campaign, referred to by US officials as Operation Epic Fury, which started on February 28, reportedly includes over 6,500 combat flights targeting Iranian military infrastructure in addition to n…
https://www.navaltoday.com/2026/03/17/over-100-iranian-warsh…
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web search NEUTRAL — On March 2, 2026, U.S. Central Command confirmed that U.S. forces struck and disabled the Iranian drone carrier IRIS Shahid Bagheri within hours of launching Operation Epic Fury against Iran. The stri…
https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2026/u-s-navy…
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“Trump has been so poor in building an alliance of cooperating nations that he has weakened the survival of important ideas about international norms of behaviour.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results discuss how Trump's foreign policy is viewed as departing from established international norms or undermining internationalism, suggesting a weakening of alliances and norms.
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web search NEUTRAL — Some foreign policy analysts in Australia argue that recent actions by the United States under President Donald Trump represent a departure from established norms of international behaviour, with impl…
https://cnnbc.com/opinion-australia-must-reaffirm-internatio…
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web search NEUTRAL — Trump’s foreign policy can be seen as a form of non-institutionalized realism that contradicts three major intellectual traditions: Liberal internationalism (Wilsonianism), Post–Cold War institutional…
https://chinabeyondthewall.org/for-iran-trumpism-presents-bo…
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web search NEUTRAL — US President Donald Trump delivered his latest ultimatum to Iran on Thursday during a meeting of the Board of Peace, the Middle East coalition Trump formed to stabilise a region he could soon plunge i…
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c875p9q59vjo
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“The rapidly fluctuating price of a barrel of oil has been both predictable and a field day for speculators.”
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Web search results confirm that energy price volatility due to the Middle East conflict created opportunities for traders, with one source explicitly mentioning that volatility benefited trading.
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web search NEUTRAL — But the resulting energy price volatility has also been an opportunity for traders.Norway’s Equinor EQNR-N has also said trading will lift earnings, helped by oil price volatility tied to the Middle E…
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/industry-news/energ…
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web search NEUTRAL — The price of oil fell sharply after the announcement, dropping 14% in a matter of minutes. Traders who bet on the unexpected move would have made money.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg547ljepvzo
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web search NEUTRAL — WTI crude oil price forecast: Recent conflicts in the region have exacerbated volatility in the oil market, causing prices to rise sharply.
https://www.markets.com/research/middle-east-conflict-drives…
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“Trump’s family and friends’ past business dealings have led to speculation that announcements of diplomatic talks with Iran generated profitable trading positions for insider investors.”
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Multiple web search results report allegations from former aides accusing the Trump White House of insider trading related to Iran policy and oil futures, linking diplomatic announcements to profitable trading positions.
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web search NEUTRAL — Anthony Scaramucci accuses the Trump White House of a $400M insider trading scheme tied to Iran policy, calling it a "financial operation."
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/market-summary/26/04/516438…
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web search NEUTRAL — The $400 Million Strike Moratorium In a recent video statement on X, Scaramucci detailed highly suspicious trading activity occurring just one hour before Trump announced a five-day moratorium on ...
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/former-tru…
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web search NEUTRAL — The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is examining a series of trades in oil futures placed shortly before major shifts in President Donald Trump's Iran war policy, a person familiar ...
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-probes-suspicious…
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“The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz will remain a choice by Iran unless a serious rapprochement is brokered or the US commits ground troops.”
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Wikipedia entries detail the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran following US/Israeli actions. The context provided in the web search results suggests that reopening the strait is contingent on diplomatic resolution or military action.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — On 19 March 2026, the United States began an aerial campaign against Iranian targets to reopen the Strait of Hormuz following its closure by Iran in response to the attacks by the United States and Is…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_campaign
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major maritime choke point for world energy trade, has been largely blocked by Iran since 28 February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Strait of Hormuz () is a waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. On the north coast lies Iran, and on the south coast lies the Musandam Peninsula under the Musandam Governorate of …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Iranian military tactics using inexpensive drones have become a game changer versus US anti-missile defenses.”
CORROBORATED
Web search results confirm that Iran uses low-cost drones like Shahed, and that these drones are cited as effectively countering US anti-missile defenses due to their low cost and flight characteristics.
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web search NEUTRAL — Shahed drones are Iranian unmanned combat aerial vehicles and loitering munitions developed by Shahed Aviation Industries. Shahed drones are manufactured both in Iran and in Russia, with the Russian v…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shahed_drones
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web search NEUTRAL — Merops drones effectively counter Iranian Shahed attacks. The Merops interceptor drones, initially used in Ukraine, have been deployed to protect U.S. troops from Iranian Shahed-136 munitions. Cost-ef…
https://www.twz.com/land/cheap-interceptor-drones-proven-in-…
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web search NEUTRAL — In retaliation against US strikes, Iran has been launching its low-cost, one-way attack Shahed drones. By flying low and slow, the drones are better able to evade conventional air defenses than ballis…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/04/us-interceptor…
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“The supply of defensive missiles is outrunning the ability of defence contractors to build them.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was gathered from the provided sources (cross-references, web search, or Wikipedia) regarding US defense contractors failing to meet the demand for anti-missile systems.
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“The US is already a net strategic loser in the conflict despite early tactical successes.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was gathered from the provided sources (cross-references, web search, or Wikipedia) assessing the overall strategic outcome for the US in the conflict.
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“Public support for the conflict is relatively high, but there is little support for a prolonged war.”
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“Israeli aerial attacks have substantially reduced Iran’s long-range attack capabilities.”
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“Iran's focus on its own defense has constrained its ability to aid Hezbollah and Hamas.”
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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.