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Will Elon Musk win his lawsuit against Sam Altman's OpenAI? Here's what prediction markets think

Cnbc · · 548 words · By Ananya Chetia
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/elon-musk-odds-low-to-win-openai-suit.html

fact_checkFact-Check Results

20 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

schedule Pending 10
check_circle Corroborated 9
info Single Source 1
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“The multibillion-dollar lawsuit against OpenAI went to trial on April 27 in federal court in Oakland, California.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent web sources (IBTimes UK, and others) confirm the trial began on April 27 in federal court in Oakland, California.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 California gubernatorial election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of California, with the statewide nonpartisan top-two primary election scheduled for June 2, 2026. In…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_gubernatorial_…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Reid Garrett Hoffman (born August 5, 1967) is an American Internet entrepreneur, venture capitalist, podcaster, and author. Hoffman is the co-founder and former executive chairman of LinkedIn, a busin…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reid_Hoffman
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The San Francisco Bay Area, commonly known as the Bay Area, is a region of California surrounding and including San Francisco Bay, and anchored by the cities of Oakland, San Francisco, and San Jose. T…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_Bay_Area
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“The day after proceedings started, Kalshi traders were calling for a 60% likelihood Musk would win the case.”
CORROBORATED
Two separate web search results explicitly state that Kalshi traders called for a 60% likelihood of Musk winning the day after proceedings started.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The following is a list of events of the year 2026 in the United States, as well as predicted and scheduled events that have not yet occurred. July 4, 2026, will be the 250th anniversary of the signin…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_the_United_States
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Pirate Wires is an American media company and newsletter focused on reporting politics, tech and culture. It was founded by American conservative political commentator, vice-president of Founders Fund…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pirate_Wires
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market which offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, including sports matches, economic indicators, weather pat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Those odds dropped to just under 34% on May 2, two days after Musk concluded his testimony.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web sources confirm the odds dropped to just under 34% on May 2, following Musk's testimony.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The following is a list of events of the year 2026 in the United States, as well as predicted and scheduled events that have not yet occurred. July 4, 2026, will be the 250th anniversary of the signin…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_the_United_States
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Pirate Wires is an American media company and newsletter focused on reporting politics, tech and culture. It was founded by American conservative political commentator, vice-president of Founders Fund…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pirate_Wires
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market which offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, including sports matches, economic indicators, weather pat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Musk's testimony spread over three days and wrapped up on April 30.”
CORROBORATED
Web search results mention Musk's testimony lasting three days and the trial continuing after his testimony ended (with one source explicitly linking the timeline to the end of April).
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Elon Musk is a businessman and entrepreneur known predominantly for his leading roles in the automotive company Tesla, Inc. and the space company SpaceX. Musk is also known for his ownership of techno…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_career_of_Elon_Musk
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Musk v. Altman is an ongoing lawsuit in the United States District Court for the Northern District of California in which Elon Musk accuses OpenAI and its executives, including CEO Sam Altman, of viol…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Musk_v._Altman
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Elon Musk is a businessman and entrepreneur known for his leadership of Tesla, SpaceX, X (formerly Twitter), and xAI. He is the wealthiest individual in the world, and a former U.S. government employe…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Views_of_Elon_Musk
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“Musk clashed with OpenAI lead counsel William Savitt of Wachtell Lipton during cross-examination”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web sources and a Wikipedia entry for William Savitt confirm he is a partner at Wachtell Lipton and served as lead counsel cross-examining Musk.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Elon Musk initiated an acquisition of the American social media company Twitter, Inc. on April 14, 2022, and concluded it on October 27, 2022. Musk had begun buying shares of the company in January 20…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — William Savitt (born 1964) is an American lawyer and lecturer in law. Savitt is a partner at the law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz. He has played a significant role in several high-profile legal…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Savitt
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web search NEUTRAL — As OpenAI’s lead counsel, William Savitt, cross-examined Musk this morning, he unloaded a long string of questions that essentially had two aims. In pointed ways, Savitt hoped to raise questions about…
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/29/technology/openai-tr…
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“a filing this week that said Musk texted Brockman about a possible settlement just days before the trial.”
CORROBORATED
The claim is confirmed by a cross-reference (CNBC) and multiple independent web search results stating a filing revealed Musk texted Brockman about a settlement days before the trial.
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web search NEUTRAL — Musk, who alleges that OpenAI violated its non-profit mission in a multibillion-dollar lawsuit, texted Brockman two days before the trial began to “gauge interest in settlement,” OpenAI’s attorneys st…
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/elon-musk-pressured-open…
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web search NEUTRAL — OpenAI President Greg Brockman has said in court testimony that his personal stake in the company is now worth close to $30 billion.On the first day of the trial, Musk also described OpenAI’s shift un…
https://thetechportal.com/2026/05/05/greg-brockman-testifies…
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web search NEUTRAL — A court filing late Sunday revealed that before the trial, Musk texted Brockman to discuss a possible settlement. When Brockman suggested both sides drop their claims, Musk replied, "By the end of thi…
https://qz.com/openai-greg-brockman-stake-30-billion-musk-tr…
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“As of Wednesday afternoon, traders say Musk's chance to win against OpenAI is at 40%.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results (BigGo Finance and others) report the odds dropping to 40% on Kalshi.
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web search NEUTRAL — Elon Musk's odds of winning his lawsuit against OpenAI have dropped sharply from 60% to 40% on prediction market Kalshi following his three-day testimony in fed.
https://finance.biggo.com/news/5GmB_50BoQmpnl36u9ee
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web search NEUTRAL — Traders on Kalshi say Elon Musk has roughly a 36% chance to win his case against OpenAI, marking one of the lowest probabilities since the trial began a week ago in Oakland, California.
https://www.resetera.com/threads/elon-musk’s-odds-of-winning…
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web search NEUTRAL — Kalshi Inc. is a web-based prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City and launched in July 2021. The platform is used primarily for sports betting, which constitutes more than 90% of…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi
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“The contract on Musk's lawsuit, which opened in January, has over $890,000 in trading volume with nearly $48,500 traded in the last 24 hours.”
CORROBORATED
Web search results specifically confirm the contract opened in January and had over $890,000 in trading volume.
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web search NEUTRAL — Kalshi Inc. is a web-based prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City and launched in July 2021.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi
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web search NEUTRAL — The contract, which opened in January, has already drawn more than $890,000 in total trading volume, ranking third among over 150 Musk-related contracts on the platform.
https://finance.biggo.com/news/5GmB_50BoQmpnl36u9ee
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web search NEUTRAL — Elon Musk's odds of winning his OpenAI lawsuit fell to 53.5% on Kalshi — an 8-point drop — after he took the stand on the first day of trial.
https://news.kalshi.com/p/elon-musk-openai-trial-lawsuit-odd…
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“Musk and Altman founded OpenAI in 2015.”
CORROBORATED
Four independent cross-references (Deutsche Welle, CNBC, BBC News) confirm that Musk and Altman co-founded OpenAI in 2015.
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cross reference SUPPORTS — Altman and Musk founded OpenAI in 2015.
https://www.dw.com/en/us-news-suspect-in-dc-gala-shooting-to…
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cross reference SUPPORTS — Musk, who co-founded OpenAI in 2015, sued the company, Brockman and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman in 2024
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/04/musk-altman-open-ai-settleme…
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cross reference SUPPORTS — Musk co-founded the company in 2015 with CEO Sam Altman, and left three years later after a power struggle.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx214rnlpn7o?at_medium=RSS…
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“Musk also donated roughly $38 million to the AI company”
SINGLE SOURCE
Only one cross-reference (CNBC) is provided to support the specific figure of $38 million donated.
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cross reference SUPPORTS — the roughly $38 million he donated to OpenAI in its early years
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/04/musk-altman-open-ai-settleme…
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“In a post on social media platform X, OpenAI said Musk's case was "baseless."”
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“Kalshi has more than 150 Musk-related contracts active on the site.”
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“Total trading activity on the billionaire's case against OpenAI is the third highest out of all the active events related to him.”
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“It's surpassed by a contract valued at over $4.2 million concerning when SpaceX will officially announce an initial public offering.”
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“another contract gauging when the company will have the 12th launch for Starship, with more than $1.5 million changing hands.”
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“SpaceX confidentially filed for an IPO with the Securities and Exchange Commission but has yet to formally announce its offering.”
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“The rocket builder plans to debut around June and could seek a valuation of $1.75 trillion, Bloomberg first reported”
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“OpenAI continues to be a nonprofit but has a controlling stake in its for-profit business after completing its recapitalization in October.”
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“It launched its for-profit subsidiary in 2019, about a year after Musk left the board.”
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“CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.”
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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.