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Why we struggle to predict our future choices

Phys · · 714 words · By Eliana Waldman
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What to know about Why we struggle to predict our future choices

The article discusses a study titled 'Noisy Foresight' by Chad Kendall and Anujit Chakraborty, which suggests that individuals struggle to accurately predict their own future decisions. The research utilizes an investment task to demonstrate that people often fail to incorporate their known future rational behaviors into their current decision-making processes.

Propaganda risk 10%
Claims checked 7
Techniques found 0
Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage
Left0%
Center75%
Right25%

4 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Why we struggle to predict our future choices Lisa Lock Scientific Editor Andrew Zinin Lead Editor You probably think you know yourself pretty well.

Why it matters

So when you make a plan, you assume you have a reasonably accurate picture of what future you will do.

Common ground

New research suggests that assumption is wrong, and that the gap has real consequences for the decisions we make every day.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

The article discusses a study titled 'Noisy Foresight' by Chad Kendall and Anujit Chakraborty, which suggests that individuals struggle to accurately predict their own future decisions. The research utilizes an investment task to demonstrate that people often fail to incorporate their known future rational behaviors into their current decision-making processes.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://phys.org/news/2026-05-struggle-future-choices.html

analyticsAnalysis

10%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 95%
Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 7 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

info Single Source 3
check_circle Corroborated 2
verified Verified By Reference 1
cancel Disputed 1
info
Claim 1: “Together, the two factors [noisy self model and cognitive discounting] explained the behavior of roughly 90% of participants.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The NBER PDF explicitly states that the noisy self model with discounting suggests about 90 percent of subjects imperfectly forecast future actions. This is the only source providing this specific figure.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The president of the United States is the head of state and head of government of the United States, indirectly elected to a four-year term via the Electoral College. Under the U.S. Constitution, the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_Unit…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The is a grammatical article in English, denoting nouns that are already or about to be mentioned, under discussion, implied or otherwise presumed familiar to listeners, readers, or speakers. It is th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The is the definite article in English. The, or THE, may also refer to:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_(disambiguation)
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
Claim 2: “About 60% of participants changed their investment based on a number that, logically, should have had no effect on their decision at all.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The specific statistic (60% of participants) is mentioned in one university-affiliated web result. Other sources discuss the general findings of the paper but do not explicitly state this specific percentage.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Foresight most commonly refers to: Foresight (psychology), the ability to predict or plan for the future Mental time travel or episodic foresight, the ability to reconstruct events from the past and …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foresight
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In futurology, especially in Europe, the term foresight has become widely used to describe activities such as: critical thinking concerning long-term developments, debate, wider participatory democra…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foresight_(futures_studies)
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Foresight Institute (Foresight) is an American research nonprofit organization that promotes the development of nanotechnology and other emerging technologies, such as safe AGI, biotech and longev…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foresight_Institute
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
Claim 3: “They had seen themselves do it over and over across 20 or more rounds.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The provided evidence for this claim consists of irrelevant results about women's clothing and general Wikipedia entries on foresight and nanotechnology. No evidence regarding the number of rounds in the 'Noisy Foresight' study was found.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Feynman Prize in Nanotechnology is an award given by the Foresight Institute for significant advances in nanotechnology. Two prizes are awarded annually, in the categories of experimental and the…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feynman_Prize_in_Nanotechnolog…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Futures studies, futures research or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose o…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_studies
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Horizon scanning (HS) or horizon scan is a method from futures studies, sometimes regarded as a part of foresight. It is the early detection and assessment of emerging technologies or threats for main…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horizon_scanning
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
Claim 4: “the researchers found that the best fit was what they call the "noisy self" model.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While the 'noisy self' model is mentioned in the NBER PDF evidence (Claim 5), the specific claim that it was the 'best fit' is not explicitly corroborated across multiple sources in the provided text, though it is implied by the NBER results.
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web search NEUTRAL — There are several forms of research: scientific, humanities, artistic, economic, social, business, marketing, practitioner research, life, technological, etc. The scientific study of research practice…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research
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web search NEUTRAL — Mar 24, 2026 · Scientific researchers design studies, analyze data, and build the knowledge base that drives medicine and technology forward. Here’s what the job really…
https://scienceinsights.org/what-is-a-scientific-researcher-…
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web search NEUTRAL — 4 days ago · The meaning of RESEARCH is studious inquiry or examination; especially : investigation or experimentation aimed at the discovery and interpretation of facts, revision of accepted theories…
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/researchers
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Claim 5: “Anujit Chakraborty et al, Noisy Foresight, Journal of the European Economic Association (2026). DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvag013”
DISPUTED
The claim states a 2026 publication date and a specific DOI (10.1093/jeea/jvag013). However, NBER and SSRN sources list the paper as a Working Paper from August 2022 with a different DOI (10.3386/w30333). While it may be forthcoming in 2026, the current evidence contradicts the provided DOI and date as the primary identifier.
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web search NEUTRAL — Noisy Foresight. NBER Working Paper No. w30333.Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation. Chakraborty, Anujit and Kendall, Chad, Noisy Foresight (August 2022).
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4184320
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web search NEUTRAL — Noisy Foresight. Anujit Chakraborty & Chad W. Kendall. Share.Working Paper 30333. DOI 10.3386/w30333. Issue Date August 2022.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w30333
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web search NEUTRAL — Noisy Foresight. Anujit Chakraborty and Chad Kendall. No 30333, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.How do boundedly-rational agents make decisions when they fail to cor…
https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/nbrnberwo/30333.htm
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Claim 6: “Published in the Journal of the European Economic Association, the paper examines whether people can think ahead to their own future actions and use that foresight to make better decisions today.”
CORROBORATED
The European Economic Association (EEA) website and a technical report both confirm the paper was published in the Journal of the European Economic Association and examines decision-makers' failure to forecast future actions.
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web search NEUTRAL — Noisy Foresight. Anujit Chakraborty, Chad Kendall. In a controlled experiment, we show that decision-makers in a one-player, dynamic setting often fail to ...
https://eeassoc.org/pre-production-papers
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web search NEUTRAL — Jul 13, 2023 · Noisy foresight. Technical report, National Bureau of Eco- nomic ... Journal of the European Economic Association, 19(3):. 1656–1691 ...
https://yuchengliang.com/brid/brid.pdf
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web search NEUTRAL — Noisy Foresight. Anujit Chakraborty, Chad Kendall. Download. On Risk and Time Pressure: When to Think and When to Do. Christoph Carnehl, Johannes Schneider.
https://eeassoc.org/teaching-materials
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Claim 7: “the central finding of "Noisy Foresight," co-authored by Chad Kendall, associate professor of finance and business economics at the University of Miami Patti and Allan Herbert Business School, and Anujit Chakraborty of the University of California, Davis”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent sources (NBER, SSRN, and University of Miami) confirm that Chad Kendall and Anujit Chakraborty co-authored the paper 'Noisy Foresight'.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Noisy Foresight Anujit Chakraborty and Chad W. Kendall NBER Working Paper No. 30333 August 2022 JEL No. D03,D90.Anujit Chakraborty Department of Economics, University of California, Davis Davis, CA Un…
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30333/w303…
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web search NEUTRAL — Chakraborty, Anujit and Kendall, Chad, Noisy Foresight (August 2022).University of Miami Herbert Business School ( email ). P.O. Box 248126 Florida Coral Gables, FL 33124 United States.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4184320
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web search NEUTRAL — That is the central finding of "Noisy Foresight," co-authored by Chad Kendall, associate professor of finance and business economics at the University of Miami Patti and Allan Herbert Business School,…
https://news.miami.edu/miamiherbert/stories/2026/05/why-peop…
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.