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Why JPMorgan has given up predicting what the oil markets will do next

Nypost · 🇮🇷 public Iran · · 574 words · By Charles Gasparino
Market Volatility Geopolitical Conflict US Foreign Policy
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What to know about Market Volatility

Why JPMorgan has given up predicting what the oil markets will do next See more of our coverage in your search results.

Claims checked 9
Techniques found 1
Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage
Left0%
Center86%
Right14%

7 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Why JPMorgan has given up predicting what the oil markets will do next See more of our coverage in your search results.

Why it matters

The conflict in Iran has not only driven up the price of oil – it has also made it next to impossible for Wall Street firms to forecast future crude costs, On The Money has learned.

Common ground

The commodities team at JPMorgan, one of the biggest players in the global oil markets, is telling clients it can no longer reliably model where crude prices go from here, according to reporting by Fox Business’s Teuta Dedvukaj.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://nypost.com/2026/09/25/business/why-jpmorgan-has-given-up-predicting-what…

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning
Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.
Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 9 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 4
info Single Source 3
verified Verified By Reference 1
help Insufficient Evidence 1
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Claim 1: “Saudi Arabia... has cut oil shipments to Europe after drone attacks damaged its key export pipeline to the Red Sea.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent sources (NeoTeo, Lord Media, and TikTok news clips) report that Saudi Arabia reduced or suspended oil shipments to Europe following drone attacks on its Red Sea export pipeline.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Red Sea is a mediterranean sea lying between the Arabian Peninsula and Africa. It is an inlet of the Indian Ocean. Its connection to the ocean is in the south, through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Red Sea International Airport (IATA: RSI, ICAO: OERS) is an international airport in Hanak, Tabuk Province in northwestern Saudi Arabia serving the tourism megaproject in development The Red Sea Desti…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_International_Airport
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Red Sea slave trade, sometimes known as the Islamic slave trade, Arab slave trade, or Oriental slave trade, was a slave trade across the Red Sea trafficking Africans from Sub-Saharan Africa in th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_slave_trade
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 2: “Last Thursday, the president told Axios that he is weighing a major decision over the war, including whether to resume large-scale military operations against Iran or move toward eventually bringing the conflict to an end.”
CORROBORATED
Three separate web search results explicitly confirm that President Trump told Axios he is weighing a major decision between resuming large-scale military operations against Iran or ending the conflict.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This is a list of presidential trips made by Donald Trump during 2026, the second year of his second presidency as the 47th president of the United States. This list excludes trips made within Washing…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_trips_mad…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Donald Trump's second and current tenure as the president of the United States began upon his inauguration as the 47th president on January 20, 2025. Trump, a Republican, previously served as the 45th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Donald_Tr…
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
Claim 3: “When war started back in February, it traded at around $72 then surged to roughly $126 in April. Prices fell toward $73 in June and have since climbed back to around $100 a barrel.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While one source mentions a 52-week range reaching $126.41 and another mentions current prices around $102, the specific sequence of prices ($72 Feb, $126 April, $73 June, $100 later) is not corroborated across multiple independent sources.
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web search NEUTRAL — Brent crude traded around $102 a barrel on Friday amid reports of additional US military deployments to the Middle East and China’s decision on Thursday to halt fuel exports this month.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
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web search NEUTRAL — Oilprice.com offers real-time oil prices for over 150 global crude blends and indexes, with live charts, comparisons, and smart analytical tools used worldwide. Jump to comparison chart. OilPrice.com …
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/
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web search NEUTRAL — -0.72%. FAQ. What Is the Current Price of Brent Oil Futures?The 52-week price range for Brent Oil futures spans from 58.72 to 126.41.
https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil
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Claim 4: “President Trump recently indicated he would be open to meet the president of Iran to end the hostilities”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent sources (Rediff.com and other web results) confirm that President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed an MoU to end hostilities. Wikipedia also references 2025-2026 negotiations between the two nations.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In 2025 and 2026, Iran and the United States began a series of negotiations aimed at reaching a nuclear peace agreement, following a letter from US president Donald Trump to Iranian supreme leader Ali…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025–2026_Iran–United_States_n…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Donald Trump's second and current tenure as the president of the United States began upon his inauguration as the 47th president on January 20, 2025. Trump, a Republican, previously served as the 45th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Donald_Tr…
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
Claim 5: “The continued conflict has throttled about a quarter of the world’s oil that is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
LeadStory and other web results explicitly state that about 20-25% of the world's oil and natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, confirming the 'quarter' figure.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Since 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel have been at war with Iran and its regional allies. The war follows the Twelve-Day War in June 2025 and sporadic fighting during the Middle Eastern…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major maritime choke point for world energy trade, has been largely blocked by Iran since 28 February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Strait of Hormuz () is a waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. On the north coast lies Iran, and on the south coast lies the Musandam Peninsula under the Musandam Governorate of …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz
+ 3 more evidence sources
help
Claim 6: “JPMorgan believes the price shock from the lack of supply was offset somewhat by consumers cutting back on the use of petroleum products like gasoline.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results to support or refute JPMorgan's belief regarding consumer demand offsetting the price shock.
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Claim 7: “Saudi Arabia — the world’s second-largest oil producer (the US is No. 1, Russia No. 3)”
CORROBORATED
Web results confirm the US is the world's largest oil producer, and Saudi Arabia is listed as a top producer/exporter. While the exact ranking of Russia vs Saudi Arabia can fluctuate, the general hierarchy is supported by the provided search results.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The February 2025 United States–Russia meeting in Saudi Arabia (also known as the 2025 Saudi Arabia meeting) was a meeting at the ministerial level between the United States and Russia. It was held on…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2025_United_States–Ru…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Iran and Saudi Arabia are engaged in a proxy war over influence in the Middle East and other regions of the Muslim world. The two countries have provided varying degrees of support to opposing sides i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–Saudi_Arabia_proxy_war
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Russia–Saudi Arabia relations (Russian: Российско-саудовские отношения, Arabic: العلاقات السعودية الروسية) are the bilateral relations between the Russian Federation and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. T…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia–Saudi_Arabia_relations
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
Claim 8: “JPMorgan’s commodities team has abandoned its “baseline view” on oil prices”
SINGLE SOURCE
Similar to claim 0, this is mentioned in a single search result referencing Fox Business reporting. No other independent sources confirm the abandonment of a 'baseline view'.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — #JPMorgan #Commodities #Silver.JPMorgan face more class-action lawsuits for illegally monopolising the silver futures market. The bank still owns half of the silver stored in public vaults and has con…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSkTJvZIJmA
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web search NEUTRAL — The current price of Brent Oil futures is 102.72, with a previous close of 102.25.Is Brent Oil a Buy or Sell Based on Technical Indicators?
https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil
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web search NEUTRAL — The commodities team at JPMorgan, one of the biggest players in the global oil markets, is telling clients it can no longer reliably model where crude prices go from here, according to reporting by Fo…
https://nypost.com/2026/09/25/business/why-jpmorgan-has-give…
info
Claim 9: “The commodities team at JPMorgan... is telling clients it can no longer reliably model where crude prices go from here”
SINGLE SOURCE
The claim is reported in one web search result citing Fox Business's Teuta Dedvukaj. Other search results are generic oil price charts or unrelated to JPMorgan's modeling capabilities.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — The commodities team at JPMorgan, one of the biggest players in the global oil markets, is telling clients it can no longer reliably model where crude prices go from here, according to reporting by Fo…
https://nypost.com/2026/09/25/business/why-jpmorgan-has-give…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Crude oil prices today - Oilprice.com.Oilprice.com offers real-time oil prices for over 150 global crude blends and indexes, with live charts, comparisons, and smart analytical tools used worldwide.
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — JPMorgan face more class-action lawsuits for illegally monopolising the silver futures market. The bank still owns half of the silver stored in public vaults and has continued buying since 2011.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSkTJvZIJmA
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.