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Why a second global shipping chokepoint could soon live up to its name as the ‘Gate of Tears’

The Conversation · · 916 words · By Flavio Macau

The article explains the strategic importance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and potential disruptions from Houthi activities, referencing historical context and shipping data. It discusses economic impacts and risks to global supply chains while citing sources like the IEA and EIA.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/why-a-second-global-shipping-chokepoint-could-soon-l…

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0%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 95%
Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

25 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

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“Iran’s effective closure of the waterway, which usually carries about 20% of the world’s oil and gas, has put severe pressure on the global economy.”
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — On 19 March 2026, the United States began an aerial campaign against Iranian targets to reopen the Strait of Hormuz following its closure by Iran in response to the 2026 Iran war. The operation was an…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_campaign
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Strait of Hormuz, a major maritime choke point for global energy trade, has experienced ongoing geopolitical and economic disruption since 28 February 2026, following joint military strikes by the…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Strait of Hormuz () is a waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. On the north coast lies Iran, and on the south coast lies the Musandam Peninsula, shared by the United Arab Emirate…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz
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“The Houthis, a military group that controls large parts of northern Yemen and is aligned with Iran, entered the war, launching missiles towards Israel for the first time since the war with Iran began.”
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This timeline of the 2026 Iran war covers the period since 28 February 2026. The war is ongoing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2026_Iran_war
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, is a Zaydi revivalist and Shia Islamist political and military organization that emerged from Yemen in the 1990s. It is predominantly made up of Zaydis, w…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthis
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Red Sea crisis is an ongoing armed conflict and maritime crisis instigated by the Houthis, an armed group in Yemen. The Houthis began launching missiles and armed drones at Israel in response to t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis
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“Yemen is situated on one side of the strait, and the Houthis have previously attacked shipping in the Red Sea, causing major disruption in late 2023 and 2024.”
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — As part of the Red Sea crisis, Houthi attacks on commercial vessels have occurred in the Red Sea. Houthi forces began attacking shipping vessels affiliated with Israel passing through the Red Sea on 1…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_attacks_on_commercial_v…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, is a Zaydi revivalist and Shia Islamist political and military organization that emerged from Yemen in the 1990s. It is predominantly made up of Zaydis, w…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthis
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Red Sea crisis is an ongoing armed conflict and maritime crisis instigated by the Houthis, an armed group in Yemen. The Houthis began launching missiles and armed drones at Israel in response to t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis
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“Bloomberg now reports Iran has approached the Houthis to prepare for a similar campaign.”
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“The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is about 30 kilometres wide at its narrowest point.”
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“It is situated between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula to the northeast and Eritrea and Djibouti in Africa on the west.”
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“Its name literally means 'Gate of Tears' in Arabic, after its famously treacherous sailing conditions.”
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“It has become so important because, along with the Suez Canal in Egypt, it allows ships to transit directly between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean by passing through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.”
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“Before the Suez Canal’s opening in the 19th century, ships had to travel all the way around the southern tip of Africa to join these two points.”
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“An oil tanker leaving Saudi Arabia to go to the Netherlands, for example, only has to travel 12,000 kilometres if it goes via the Red Sea, compared with more than 20,000 kilometres going south around Africa.”
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“According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), a trip between the Arabian Sea and the Netherlands that takes 34 days the long way around is shortened to just 19 days.”
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“In normal times, as much as 14% of global maritime trade goes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.”
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“The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that in 2025 about 4.2 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum liquids crossed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait per day.”
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“Given most ships use the Suez Canal as well, official data from the Suez Canal Authority allow us to paint a detailed picture of Red Sea shipping.”
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“In the final quarter of 2025, about 40% of the 3,426 ships passing through the Suez Canal transported fossil fuels: (1,330 oil tankers, 88 liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships).”
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“Bulk and general cargo made up another 40% (1,339 ships), typically transporting agricultural commodities such as corn, wheat and soybeans, and also coal and iron ore.”
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“Container ships made about 13% of the traffic (459 ships).”
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“Total traffic through the Red Sea has declined considerably since Houthi attacks on shipping in late 2023 and 2024, even though these attacks have largely stopped.”
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“The Bab el-Mandeb Strait can’t be 'closed' entirely. Its narrowest point is still a considerably wide waterway.”
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“Unlike the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is not a 'cul-de-sac', where the passage is closed at one end with only one way out. Ships can still exit to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal.”
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“Saudi Arabia had already built a 'Plan B' to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, called the East-West pipeline.”
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“This pipeline connects Abqaiq in the north with Yanbu on the Red Sea, and had already begun pumping oil at almost full capacity in response to the conflict.”
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“Oil bound for Asia from this new exit point still has to pass through Bab el-Mandeb to avoid the dru route.”
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“The Red Sea crisis with 67 incidents between 2023 and 2024, the impact on shipping, and insurance costs rising to 2% are all factual claims.”
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“The conclusion about the economic disruption if both straits are closed is another claim.”
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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.