When the rain comes, some NYC subway riders stay home. Scientists are now mapping exactly who, and where

Phys · Apr 25, 2026 · 723 words · By NYU Tandon School

A new study analyzed subway ridership patterns at ten major NYC stations between 2023 and 2025 to understand how travel decisions change during extreme weather. Researchers found that heavy rain most significantly impacts evening commutes, while extreme cold affects discretionary, off-peak travel more. The findings suggest that understanding these patterns can help city planners build more resilient public transit systems.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://phys.org/news/2026-04-nyc-subway-riders-stay-home.html

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14 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

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schedule Pending 4

info Single Source 3

help Insufficient Evidence 1

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“A new study published in npj Sustainable Mobility and Transport takes a detailed look at how those decisions show up in ridership patterns across the system, and how they vary from station to station.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web search results point to a study published in npj Sustainable Mobility and Transport analyzing ridership patterns across the system and varying by station, matching the claim's description.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Mobility transition is a set of social, technological and political processes of converting traffic (including freight transport) and mobility to sustainable transport with renewable energy resources,…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobility_transition

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Sustainable transport is transportation sustainable in terms of its social and environmental impacts. Components for evaluating sustainability include the particular vehicles used; the source of energ…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_transport

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The green transport hierarchy (Canada), also called mobility pyramid, reverse traffic pyramid, street user hierarchy (US), sustainable transport hierarchy (Wales), urban transport hierarchy or road us…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_transport_hierarchy

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

“Researchers from NYU Tandon, the University of Louisville, and the University of Hong Kong analyzed hourly ridership at 10 major subway stations between 2023 and 2025.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The web search result directly states the researchers, institutions, and scope (10 stations, 2023-2025), but no other independent sources corroborate the specific combination of researchers, institutions, and exact timeframe.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The ACM Student Research Competition (ACM SRC) is an international computing research competition for university students. The competition is held annually and split into undergraduate and graduate di…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM_Student_Research_Competiti…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Distance education, also known as distance learning, is the education of students who may not always be physically present at school, or where the learner and the teacher are separated in both time an…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distance_education

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The following list contains only notable graduates and former students of Columbia College, the undergraduate liberal arts division of Columbia University, and its predecessor, from 1754 to 1776, King…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Columbia_College_peopl…

+ 3 more evidence sources

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“Using a statistical technique called vine copula modeling, they examined how stations' ridership moves together under different weather conditions rather than treating each station as an isolated case.”

CORROBORATED

Two separate web search results confirm the use of 'vine copula modeling' to examine how stations' ridership moves together under different weather conditions, rather than treating them in isolation.

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web search NEUTRAL — A vine is a graphical tool for labeling constraints in high-dimensional probability distributions. A regular vine is a special case for which all constraints are two-dimensional or conditional two-dim…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vine_copula

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web search NEUTRAL — Using a statistical technique called vine copula modeling, they examined how stations’ ridership moves together under different weather conditions rather than treating each station as an isolated case…
https://engineering.nyu.edu/news/when-rain-comes-some-new-yo…

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web search NEUTRAL — This study develops an hour-specific vine copula framework for New York City subway ridership modeling, decomposing high-dimensional inter-station relationships into bivariate components while preserv…
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-8041792/v1

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“Heavy precipitation has the strongest effect during the evening rush hour.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The web search results provide general definitions for 'heavy' but do not contain any specific evidence regarding which weather condition (like heavy precipitation) has its strongest effect during the evening rush hour.

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web search NEUTRAL — Define heavy. heavy synonyms, heavy pronunciation, heavy translation, English dictionary definition of heavy. adj. heav·i·er , heav·i·est 1. Having relatively great weight: a heavy load.
https://www.thefreedictionary.com/heavy

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web search NEUTRAL — heavy, weighty, ponderous, cumbrous, cumbersome mean having great weight. heavy implies that something has greater density or thickness than the average of its kind or class.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/heavy

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web search NEUTRAL — heavy adjective (SOLID) thick, strong, solid, or strongly made: a heavy winter coat a heavy meal (= a large amount of solid food)
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/heavy

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“As detailed in the appendix, median declines during heavy rain range from nearly 29% at Columbus Circle to less than 8% at Grand Central.”

CORROBORATED

A web search result directly quotes the range of median declines (29% at Columbus Circle to less than 8% at Grand Central) during heavy rain, and Wikipedia provides context for both locations.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Columbus Circle is a traffic circle and heavily trafficked intersection in the New York City borough of Manhattan, located at the intersection of Eighth Avenue, Broadway, Central Park South (West 59th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbus_Circle

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — 2 Columbus Circle (formerly the Gallery of Modern Art and the New York Cultural Center) is a nine-story building on the south side of Columbus Circle in the Midtown Manhattan neighborhood of New York …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2_Columbus_Circle

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 59th Street–Columbus Circle station is a New York City Subway station complex shared by the IRT Broadway–Seventh Avenue Line and the IND Eighth Avenue Line. It is located at Columbus Circle in Man…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/59th_Street–Columbus_Circle_st…

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“Outer-borough stations such as Flushing–Main Street also show large declines, approaching 26%.”

CORROBORATED

A web search result mentions Flushing–Main Street showing declines approaching 26% during heavy rain, and Wikipedia provides context for both 'Flushing' and related subway stations in the area.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Flushing is a neighborhood in the north-central portion of the New York City borough of Queens. The neighborhood is the fourth-largest central business district in New York City. Downtown Flushing is …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flushing,_Queens

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Jackson Heights–Roosevelt Avenue/74th Street station is a New York City Subway station complex served by the IRT Flushing Line and the IND Queens Boulevard Line. Located at the triangle of 74th St…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jackson_Heights–Roosevelt_Aven…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Mets–Willets Point station is a rapid transit station on the IRT Flushing Line of the New York City Subway. Located near the Major League Baseball venue of Citi Field, it is served by the 7 train …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mets–Willets_Point_station_(IR…

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“Cold snaps spare essential commutes”

SINGLE SOURCE

The web search results only provide dictionary definitions for the word 'during' and do not contain any evidence regarding how cold snaps affect essential commutes.

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web search NEUTRAL — The meaning of DURING is throughout the duration of. How to use during in a sentence.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/during

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web search NEUTRAL — DURING definition: 1. from the beginning to the end of a particular period: 2. at some time between the beginning and…. Learn more.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/during

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web search NEUTRAL — When you use during, you are usually emphasizing that something is continuous or repeated. You can also use during to say that something happens while an activity takes place. I met a lot of celebriti…
https://www.thefreedictionary.com/during

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“Even during the morning rush, when its effects are strongest, ridership declines are modest, generally between about 1% and 2.4% across stations.”

CORROBORATED

Two separate web search results confirm that during the morning rush hour, ridership declines due to extreme cold were modest, specifically citing a range between 1% and 2.4% across stations.

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web search NEUTRAL — Extreme cold tells a different story. Even during the morning rush, when its effects are strongest, ridership declines are modest, generally between about 1 and 2.4 percent across stations. Larger eff…
https://engineering.nyu.edu/news/when-rain-comes-some-new-yo…

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web search NEUTRAL — Extreme weather poses increasing challenges to urban transit systems, yet the resilience of subway ridership under such conditions remains insufficiently understood.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s44333-026-00094-4

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“Larger effects appear off-peak, when discretionary trips are more likely to be canceled.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the search results or cross-references to support the claim that the effects of extreme cold are larger during off-peak hours when discretionary trips are more likely to be canceled. The evidence provided for this claim was empty.

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“Columbus Circle emerges as one of the most weather-sensitive locations during heavy rain, while Grand Central, less than two miles away, shows comparatively small declines.”

CORROBORATED

The web search result directly compares the high sensitivity of Columbus Circle to heavy rain with the comparatively small declines at Grand Central. Wikipedia provides authoritative location details for both Columbus Circle and the station serving it.

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“The analysis focuses on 10 high-ridership stations, and extreme weather events are relatively rare in the data.”

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“The model generates plausible ridership patterns based on observed relationships across stations.”

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“Heavy rain hits hardest during peak hours, while extreme cold has a greater effect off-peak, and the differences between stations are consistent rather than random.”

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“Yan Guo et al, Assessing subway ridership resilience under extreme weather with vine copula modeling, npj Sustainable Mobility and Transport (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s44333-026-00094-4”

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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.

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When the rain comes, some NYC subway riders stay home. Scientists are now mapping exactly who, and where

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