When are prediction markets most helpful? Evercore ISI has a formula

Cnbc · May 25, 2026 · 494 words · By Ananya Chetia

headphones Listen to the eFinder podcast briefing

Generate a natural audio summary of this story

Daily briefing

What to know about When are prediction markets most helpful? Evercore ISI has a formula

High volume and short-term markets that ask simple questions with clear resolution rules — that's the formula Evercore ISI strategists say make prediction markets helpful for forecasting.

Claims checked 10

Techniques found 0

Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center86%

Right14%

7 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

High volume and short-term markets that ask simple questions with clear resolution rules — that's the formula Evercore ISI strategists say make prediction markets helpful for forecasting.

Why it matters

Led by Julian Emanuel, they found contracts with higher volume produce more reliable probabilities than shallow markets.

Common ground

Similarly, contracts closer to their termination date showed stronger probability versus a long-term contract.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

Follow-up questions

What concrete event or decision sits underneath the headline: When are prediction markets most helpful? Evercore ISI has a formula?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that the strategists wrote in a May 17 report?
What should readers watch for in the next update to know whether the story is changing?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/25/when-are-prediction-markets-most-helpful-evercor…

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 10 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

info Single Source 5

check_circle Corroborated 3

verified Verified By Reference 1

help Insufficient Evidence 1

verified

Claim 1: “the strategists wrote in a May 17 report.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

While Evercore is identified as an investment banking firm, none of the provided sources confirm the publication of a specific report on May 17.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Ashwin Navin (born c.1977) is an American entrepreneur who is the CEO and co-founder of Samba TV, a data and analytics service that measures television viewership using opt-in data from Internet-conne…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashwin_Navin

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Evercore Inc., formerly known as Evercore Partners, is a global independent investment banking advisory firm founded in 1995 by Roger Altman, David Offensend, and Austin Beutner. The firm has advised …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evercore

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Instant buyer (or iBuyer) is a real estate transaction model wherein companies purchase residential properties directly from private sellers, to eventually re-sell them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant_buyer

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 2: “nearly 60% of live markets on Kalshi and Polymarket have less than a $1,000 in trading volume.”

SINGLE SOURCE

One web search result explicitly states: 'nearly 60% of live markets on Kalshi and Polymarket have less than a $1,000 in trading volume.' However, no other independent source corroborates this specific statistic.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Jay Robert Pritzker (born January 19, 1965) is an American politician, lawyer, and businessman serving since 2019 as the 43rd governor of Illinois. He is a member of the Democratic Party. Born in Palo…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JB_Pritzker

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market which offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, including sports matches, economic indicators, weather pat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is an independent agency of the United States federal government. Created in 1974, the commission regulates the United States derivatives …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Commodity_Future…

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 3: “Evercore ISI strategists... found contracts with higher volume produce more reliable probabilities than shallow markets.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided web search results for Evercore ISI discuss S&P 500 targets and general economic views, but do not mention a specific finding regarding prediction market volume and probability reliability.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Probable is a decentralized prediction market that lets you own your take on sports, crypto, global events, and everything trending. Built on BNB Chain.
https://probable.markets/

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The Evercore ISI strategist drew parallels, stating: “The Pandemic changed everything. Warlike stimulus, surging M2, and a productivity shock collide with an 'AI Revolution' – reminiscent of the 1920s…
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/evercores-e…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Evercore ISI Sees S&P 500 Gain Raging On, Upping Target to 6,000. Emanuel’s previous target was among the lowest on Wall Street. Strategist sees cooling inflation, AI hopes pushing S&P higher.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-16/evercore-…

info

Claim 4: “Only a sliver, roughly 5.3%, have markets with at least $100,000 in trading volume.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The evidence provided for this claim consists only of dictionary definitions for the word 'roughly'. No factual data regarding the 5.3% figure was found.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — 4 days ago · The meaning of ROUGHLY is in a rough manner. How to use roughly in a sentence.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/roughly

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — ROUGHLY definition: 1. approximately: 2. without taking a lot of care to make something perfect: 3. in a violent or…. Learn more.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/roughly

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — ROUGHLY definition: without being exact or fully authenticated; approximately See examples of roughly used in a sentence.
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/roughly

help

Claim 5: “trading volume skyrocketed in fall 2025.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found for this claim. Additionally, the date 'fall 2025' is in the future relative to the current context of the 2024 election reports.

info

Claim 6: “Evercore found that only about 8% of events on Kalshi and Polymarket clear $1 million in volume.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence for this claim contains only dictionary definitions of 'approximately' and general Wikipedia entries for Nadex and PredictIt. No source confirms the specific 8% figure for Kalshi and Polymarket.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Nadex (Northern American Derivatives Exchange), formerly known as HedgeStreet, is a US-based retail-focused online binary options exchange. It offers retail trading of binary options and spreads on th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nadex

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — PredictIt is a United States-based online prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events. PredictIt is a project of the Prediction Market Research Consortium, a not-for-prof…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt

menu_book

+ 3 more evidence sources

check_circle

Claim 7: “Leading prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket saw trading volume growth during the 2024 presidential elections”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent sources (Binance, and other web search results) confirm that Polymarket and Kalshi saw massive trading volume growth during the 2024 US presidential elections, with Polymarket reaching $3.68 billion.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The trading volume on the leading prediction markets platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, has hit a new record high, surpassing the previous peak reached during the US presidential election last year.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-21/predictio…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — From the 2024 US Presidential Election to the 2025 AI boom and sports events, prediction markets are exploding. Polymarket's trading volume surged over 300% during the election, with the on-chain ...
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/golden-age-prediction-markets…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Polymarket's trading volume for the 2024 U.S. presidential election reached $3.68 billion, making it the largest prediction market event in history. Since then, the prediction market has completely en…
https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/304509176489249

check_circle

Claim 8: “the 2024 CFTC decision to approve election-related contracts on Kalshi.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources (Dentons, Built In, and a legal analysis) confirm the legal battle and the 2024 court decision (Judge Cobb) that allowed Kalshi to launch election-related contracts despite the CFTC's attempts to block them.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Kalshi Inc. is a web-based prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City and launched in July 2021. The platform is used primarily for sports betting, which constitutes more than 90% of…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi

menu_book

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 9: “contracts closer to their termination date showed stronger probability versus a long-term contract.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The evidence provided consists of general definitions of prediction and sports betting tips; there is no mention of Evercore ISI's findings on contract termination dates and probability accuracy.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — A prediction (from Latin prae- 'before' and dictum 'something said') [1] or forecast is a statement about a future event or about future data. Predictions are often, but not always, based upon experie…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — 3 days ago · Playford City Patriots are undefeated in their last 6 NPL South Australian matches. NWS Spirit have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 away matches in the NPL NSW.
https://www.forebet.com/en/football-tips-and-predictions-for…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — BTS OTS your prediction 15:00 Bohemians - Shamrock Rovers 15:00 3 2 TIP X2 - Bohemians - Shamrock Rovers 1 X 2 H1 HX H2 1.5 2.5 3.5 BTS 37 33 30 30 44 26 76 46 29 58 42 your prediction 2 1 1 14:45 Der…
https://www.statarea.com/predictions

check_circle

Claim 10: “CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.”

CORROBORATED

The claim is explicitly confirmed across multiple cross-reference entries from CNBC stating that CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship involving customer acquisition and a minority investment.

compare_arrows

cross reference SUPPORTS — CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/kalshi-traders-confident-sec…

compare_arrows

cross reference SUPPORTS — CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/uber-and-lyft-report-earning…

compare_arrows

cross reference SUPPORTS — CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/07/kalshi-traders-see-odds-risi…

+ 2 more evidence sources

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.