What would prolonged war mean for Sudan?

Al Jazeera · 🇶🇦 public Qatar · May 08, 2026 · 955 words · By Mariem Bah

Economic Collapse Humanitarian Crisis State Failure

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What to know about Economic Collapse

Sudan’s war has triggered one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with fears a protracted war could worsen it Rhetoric surrounding Sudan’s ongoing war has escalated with Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemedti,”…

Claims checked 17

Techniques found 2

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Right coverage

Left20%

Center80%

Right0%

5 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Why it matters

Recommended Stories list of 1 itemend of listBoth sides increasingly appear to view the war as a long-term struggle for survival and control of Sudan, the consequences of which would be devastating.

Common ground

UNDP Sudan Representative Luca Renda cautioned that “the longer the war continues, the greater the misery,” describing the conflict as “the economics of suffering”.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Exaggeration / Hyperbole: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Economic Collapse story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that Nearly 15 million people have been displaced?
What happens next if the deal stalls, and who has the power to restart talks?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/5/8/what-would-prolonged-war-mean-for-su…

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 2 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Exaggeration / Hyperbole 60% confidence

Overstating facts or claims to create a stronger emotional response.

Why it matters: Recognizing exaggeration / hyperbole helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 17 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 7

info Single Source 5

verified Verified By Reference 2

help Insufficient Evidence 2

check_circle Corroborated 1

verified

Claim 1: “Nearly 15 million people have been displaced”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided evidence for this claim contains irrelevant search results (EIA, AAAS) or general Wikipedia entries that do not mention the specific figure of 15 million displaced people.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — South Sudan (), officially the Republic of South Sudan, is a landlocked country in East Africa. It is bordered by Sudan to the north, Ethiopia to the east, Kenya to the southeast, Uganda to the south,…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sudan

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Sudan, officially the Republic of the Sudan, is a country in Northeast Africa. It borders the Central African Republic to the southwest, Chad to the west, Libya to the northwest, Egypt to the north, t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudan

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Since April 2023, there has been a civil war in Sudan between two primary factions of the country's military government. The conflict involves the internationally recognized government, controlled by …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_civil_war_(2023–prese…

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 2: “leaving about 65 percent of Sudan’s population without adequate access to medical care.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 3: “Average economic growth could accelerate to five percent, while 17.3 million people could be lifted out of extreme poverty.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 4: “GDP per capita would fall by roughly $1,700, while more than 60% of the population would be living in extreme poverty.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence contains general GDP per capita data for Sudan but does not mention the specific projection of a $1,700 fall or the 60% extreme poverty figure related to a 2030 scenario.

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web search NEUTRAL — GDP per capita does not consider differences in the cost of living in different countries, and the results may vary greatly from one year to another based on fluctuations in the exchange rates of the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi…

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web search NEUTRAL — The GDP per Capita in Sudan is equivalent to 5 percent of the world's average.The GDP per capita is obtained by dividing the country’s gross domestic product, adjusted by inflation, by the total popul…
https://tradingeconomics.com/sudan/gdp-per-capita

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web search NEUTRAL — English Español Français العربية 中文. GDP per capita (current US$). Sudan.Fragile and conflict affected situations. 2024. 1,528.0.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?location…

info

Claim 5: “at least 19 million lack access to safe drinking water and sanitation.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence consists only of dictionary definitions for the word 'least' and contains no information regarding water or sanitation in Sudan.

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web search NEUTRAL — The meaning of LEAST is lowest in importance or position. How to use least in a sentence.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/least

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web search NEUTRAL — 1. smallest in size, amount, degree, etc.; slightest: to pay the least amount of attention. 2. lowest in consideration, position, or importance.
https://www.thefreedictionary.com/least

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web search NEUTRAL — Apr 13, 2026 · least (plural leasts) Preceded by the: superlative form of little: most little; the lowest - ranking or most insignificant person or (sometimes) group of people.
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/least

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Claim 6: “Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemedti,” recently announcing that his soldiers were prepared to keep fighting “until 2040 if necessary.””

CORROBORATED

Two independent web search results confirm that Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) stated his forces are prepared to fight for decades/until 2040.

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web search NEUTRAL — Rapid Support Forces leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo officially announced the establishment of the Government of Peace and Unity on 15 April 2025.[22][23][24] The following day, Dagalo stated that the GP…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Peace_and_Unity

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web search NEUTRAL — RSF leader Dagalo called for a radical solution to Sudan’s crisis while stressing the need for long-term stability and peace.He claimed army estimates suggest the war could continue until 2033, while …
https://thesudantimes.com/sudan/dagalo-says-rsf-seeks-quick-…

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web search NEUTRAL — The commander of the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, stated that his forces are prepared to fight for decades in their confrontation with the army, warning that his fighter…
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260508-rsf-commander-aff…

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Claim 7: “Sudan’s army chief and Transitional Sovereign Council head, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, vowed to keep fighting until Sudan was “cleansed” of the RSF and estimated the war could last until 2033.”

SINGLE SOURCE

One web search result mentions that Dagalo claimed army estimates suggest the war could continue until 2033, but there is no direct confirmation of Burhan making this specific estimate in the provided evidence.

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web search NEUTRAL — Abdel Fattah al-Burhan Abdelrahman al-Burhan is a Sudanese military officer who has been the leader of Sudan since 2019.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdel_Fattah_al-Burhan

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web search NEUTRAL — Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the armed forces and in effect the country's president.It is disputed who fired the first shot but the fighting swiftly escalated, with the RSF seizing much of …
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjel2nn22z9o

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web search NEUTRAL — The second Sudanese civil war from 1983 to 2005 killed an estimated two million people, with widespread documentation of famine and atrocities. In July 2011, Sudan’s southern territory seceded and for…
https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/power-s…

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Claim 8: “more than 61,000 deaths estimated between April 2023 and June 2024 alone.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 9: “Nineteen million school-aged children have had their education disrupted, and only one in five schools is currently open”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 10: “Since the war began, an estimated 70–80 percent of health facilities in conflict zones have become non-functional because of targeted attacks and looting.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found after searching.

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Claim 11: “In Khartoum, only one in four hospitals remains operational in the capital.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 12: “up to 24 million face food shortages”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided evidence for this claim contains irrelevant search results about the movie 'Up' and Union Pacific Railroad, with no mention of food shortages in Sudan.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Rapid Support Forces (RSF; Arabic: قُوَّاتْ الدّعْمْ السَّرِيعْ, romanized: Quwwāt ad-daʿm as-sarīʿ) are a Sudanese paramilitary force formerly operated by the Sudanese government. They originated…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 13: “Under a “Sudan Rising” scenario built around peace, governance reforms and economic reconstruction, Sudan’s GDP could reach US$58.2 billion by 2043”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 14: “A conflict lasting to 2030 would push an additional 34 million people into extreme poverty”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found after searching.

info

Claim 15: “According to a joint report last month by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Institute for Security Studies, more than 150,000 people have been killed since fighting began in 2023.”

SINGLE SOURCE

One web search result ('Sudan war: A simple guide to what is happening') confirms that more than 150,000 people have died, though it does not explicitly name the UNDP/ISS report in the snippet provided.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — On 6 April 1985, Defence Minister Abdel Rahman Swar al-Dahab seized power from President Gaafar Nimeiry in a coup d'état. Not long after, on 30 June 1989, Lieutenant General Omar al-Bashir, with insti…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Sudan_(1985–2019)

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+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 16: “The report projects that under a “Protracted Conflict” scenario with the war lasting until 2030, Sudan’s GDP in 2043 would be US$34.5 billion lower than it would be with no war”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence contains general definitions of GDP and World Bank data links, but no specific projection regarding a $34.5 billion GDP loss by 2043.

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web search NEUTRAL — Nominal (or "Current") GDP reflects current prices and exchange rates, without adjustments for inflation or cost-of-living differences. See also: GDP per Capita by Country.
https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-by-country/

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web search NEUTRAL — No data is available at the World level. Please use the search box above to select a country or region. GDP: linked series (current LCU).South Sudan.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG

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web search NEUTRAL — It’s the king of economic statistics. Gross domestic product is an important tool to measure the health and strength of a country’s economy, but it doesn’t a...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLom1WlqwS0

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Claim 17: “At least 145 verified attacks on healthcare facilities and personnel have been documented”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.