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‘We’re concerned’: US-based prediction markets taking bets on Australian elections and Albanese’s word choices

The Guardian · · 800 words · By Josh Butler
Financial Integrity Technological Circumvention Gambling Regulation
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/may/25/were-concerned-us-based-p…

psychologyDetected Techniques

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Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
warning
Appeal to Fear 70% confidence
Building support by instilling anxiety or panic in the audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

15 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

info Single Source 7
schedule Pending 5
help Insufficient Evidence 2
check_circle Corroborated 1
info
“US-based “prediction market” websites are taking tens of thousands of dollars in bets on Australian elections and even specific words the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, says in parliament”
SINGLE SOURCE
The claim is directly mirrored in one web search result ('We’re concerned’: US-based prediction markets taking bets on...'), but no other independent sources in the provided evidence corroborate these specific details about Anthony Albanese's words.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Anthony Norman Albanese is an Australian politician who has served as the 31st prime minister of Australia since 2022. He has been the leader of the Labor Party since 2019 and the member of parliament…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Albanese
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — US-based “prediction market” websites are taking tens of thousands of dollars in bets on Australian elections and even specific words the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, says in parliament, with gam…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/may/25/were-…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — It is based on a poll of 40,689 Australians, with the MRP, or multi-level regression with poststratification, modelling the survey's results across the demographics of all 150 electorates. It produces…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-16/peter-dutton-anthony-…
info
“Australian financial and media regulators said they were monitoring the explosion in popularity of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided web search results for this claim are generic descriptions of Australia and unrelated news headlines; they do not mention financial or media regulators monitoring Kalshi or Polymarket.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Australia is the world's flattest and driest inhabited continent. It is a megadiverse country, and its size gives it a wide variety of landscapes and climates including deserts in the interior and tro…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — A shock Australian court decision has sparked international protests in London as women’s rights activists warn the ruling threatens to ‘erase’ biological women from their own spaces.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Discover Australia's sparkling beaches, friendly wildlife and natural wonders. There's never been a better time to travel to Australia, so come and say g'day!
https://www.australia.com/en-us
info
“neither site is approved by Australian regulators and do not allow Australian users”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence provided describes what Kalshi is and its general operation, but does not mention its approval status with Australian regulators or specific prohibitions against Australian users.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Kalshi Inc. is a web-based prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City and launched in July 2021. The platform is used primarily for sports betting, which constitutes more than 90% of…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Kalshi is a regulated exchange & prediction market where you can trade on the outcome of real-world events. Buy and sell Event Contracts.
https://kalshi.com/
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Apr 21, 2026 · On Kalshi, you're trading in a peer-to-peer marketplace with other users. When you purchase a contract on Kalshi, you're essentially taking the other side of someone else's position.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/predictions-markets/news/kal…
info
“Prediction market sites allow users to buy shares in yes/no markets against other users, on events from sports to politics, pop culture or even the weather.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The web search results provided for this claim are completely irrelevant, discussing technical demos and computer deception, and do not describe prediction markets.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Most of these late 1990s demos are QuickTime movies made with QTS (QuickTime Synthesizer) - a 2D rendering language I developed for generating animated procedural textures & abstract animations. It wa…
https://jbum.com/demos/index.html
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Fun stuff (writings and software) by Jim Bumgardner
https://jbum.com/funstuff.html
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — The two person acts discussed in these books are a real gold mine for computer programmers wishing to endow their machines with special powers. Like those acts, one can produce the illusion that the m…
https://jbum.com/artofdeception/
check_circle
“Kalshi and Polymarket are booming in popularity in the US”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent web sources confirm that Kalshi and Polymarket have surged in popularity since 2024, specifically mentioning their growth in the US context.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — May 1, 2026 ... That trajectory no longer seems far-fetched. Prediction markets have seen significant momentum since the 2024 US presidential election, ...
https://kentclarkcenter.org/prediction-markets-value-and-reg…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Apr 9, 2026 ... Since 2024, prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have surged in popularity, drawing users, media partnerships, ...
https://www.facebook.com/WashingtonExaminer/posts/since-2024…
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Apr 28, 2026 ... In particular, Polymarket is crypto-native, does not apply U.S.-style anti-money laundering or know-your-customer rules, and is technically ...
https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2026/04/prediction-markets…
info
“A Kalshi spokesperson said the platform had “no trading” in Australia, and its website states trading “is prohibited for residents” of more than 50 countries, including Australia.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While one source mentions Kalshi is available in all 50 US states, none of the provided evidence confirms the specific claim about the prohibition of residents in 50+ countries including Australia.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — The site has been involved in several controversies and lawsuits regarding the legality of its sports and election markets, the ethics of allowing wagers on ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Kalshi is a regulated exchange & prediction market where you can trade on the outcome of real-world events. Buy and sell Event Contracts.
https://kalshi.com/
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — 5 days ago ... Kalshi is available in all 50 states to users aged 18 and older. As of last week, US users who are 18 and up can start trading on some ...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/may/…
info
“The Australian Communications and Media Authority (Acma) in 2025 mandated Australian internet service providers block access to Polymarket”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence provided consists of general Wikipedia and History entries for the year 2025, but contains no mention of ACMA mandating blocks on Polymarket.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — 2025 (MMXXV) was a common year starting on Wednesday of the Gregorian calendar, the 2025th year of the Common Era (CE) and Anno Domini (AD) designations, the 25th year of the 3rd millennium and the 21…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025
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web search NEUTRAL — Dec 18, 2025 · She also became the first Black woman to win country album of the year. Beyoncé appears at the 67th annual Grammy Awards on February 2, 2025 in Los Angeles California.
https://www.history.com/articles/2025-events
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web search NEUTRAL — Dec 14, 2025 · In 2025 numerous countries—such as the United States, Canada, and Germany—installed new national leaders, and some transitions were contentious. Several African countries experienced co…
https://www.britannica.com/topic/2025-Year-in-Review
info
“Polymarket took nearly US$500,000 in trading on the winner of the Farrer byelection, while Kalshi took US$98,572.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence provided describes what Polymarket is and how it works, but does not provide specific trading volumes for the Farrer byelection.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Trade on polymarket prediction markets with USDC. Bet on politics, sports, crypto prices & real-world events. Decentralized, transparent, zero trading fees.
https://polymarkett.to/
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Feb 16, 2026 · Learn how to trade on world events with Polymarket. Our guide covers how to deposit, place bets, and withdraw your winnings safely using the Polygon network.
https://cryptonews.com/academy/what-is-polymarket-and-how-do…
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web search NEUTRAL — Apr 7, 2026 · Polymarket is a prediction market platform built on blockchain technology that allows users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events. These events must be unambiguously verified — eit…
https://builtin.com/articles/what-is-polymarket
help
“Kalshi is hosting markets including “Australia unemployment rate in May”, and has US$16,000 traded on “Who will win the next Australian House election?” and US$8,400 on the Reserve Bank’s cash rate decision in June.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found after searching for this claim.
help
“Earlier this month, Kalshi hosted a market on which individual words Albanese would say during parliament’s question time, with US$13,000 traded on contracts regarding whether or not he would say words including “Iran”, “TAFE”, “Trump”, “tax cuts” or “healthcare””
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found after searching for this claim.
schedule
“Polymarket is hosting markets on RBA decisions (US$28,000 on June’s call), or whether Albanese would be “out as prime minister” by June or December (US$12,000 in trading).”
PENDING
schedule
“A government spokesperson said the forthcoming reforms would extend Acma’s powers to block illegal gambling websites, broaden existing bans on advertising, and block transactions to prohibited gambling operators.”
PENDING
schedule
“A spokesperson for the Australian Securities and Investments Commission financial regulator said... no such provider held an Australian market licence.”
PENDING
schedule
“Acma’s investigation into Polymarket in 2025 saw a formal warning sent to the company last July.”
PENDING
schedule
“Acma noted Kalshi had geoblocked users in Australia”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.