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View from The Hill: A primal scream from Farrer throws Liberals into deeper crisis

The Conversation · · 896 words · By Michelle Grattan
One Nation Rise Liberal Party Decline Voter Disillusionment

The article discusses One Nation's victory in the Farrer byelection, highlighting the significant decline in the Liberal Party's vote share. It analyzes the implications for Liberal leader Angus Taylor and suggests a broader trend of voter disillusionment across the Australian electorate.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-a-primal-scream-from-farrer-throw…

analyticsAnalysis

40%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 90%
Moderate concerns. Notable use of persuasive or loaded language.

psychologyDetected Techniques

warning
Loaded Language 95% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
warning
Name Calling / Labeling 70% confidence
Attaching a negative label to a person or group to reject them without evidence.
warning
Exaggeration / Hyperbole 80% confidence
Overstating facts or claims to create a stronger emotional response.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

14 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

check_circle Corroborated 6
schedule Pending 4
info Single Source 2
help Insufficient Evidence 1
verified Verified 1
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“One Nation’s smashing victory in Farrer”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent sources (ABC News, and two other web results) confirm that One Nation won the Farrer by-election.
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web search NEUTRAL — One Nation has scored a thumping win in the Farrer by-election, marking the first time the party has won a Lower House seat in federal parliament.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-09/farrer-sat-night-resu…
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web search NEUTRAL — One Nation has won the Farrer federal byelection – the first time the party has won an election for a federal House of Representatives seat. At the same time, the Liberal vote has crashed, with indepe…
https://theconversation.com/one-nation-wins-farrer-byelectio…
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web search NEUTRAL — One Nation has won a by-election for the NSW seat of Farrer, making David Farley the party's first candidate to be elected to the House of Representatives.
https://www.noticer.news/one-nation-wins-farrer-by-election/
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“Angus Taylor, who has been found wanting after only months in the job.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm Angus Taylor is the leader of the Liberal Party, including a cross-reference from Deutsche Welle and multiple web search results detailing his election to the leadership.
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web search NEUTRAL — After months of speculation, Angus Taylor has been chosen as the next Liberal leader after declaring he is the man to bring the party back from what many fear is the edge of obscurity. The New South W…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-13/who-is-liberal-party-…
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web search NEUTRAL — Angus James Taylor (born 30 September 1966) is an Australian politician. He became the Leader of the Opposition and the leader of the Liberal Party on 13 February 2026.
https://kids.kiddle.co/Angus_Taylor
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web search NEUTRAL — Angus Taylor is the Liberal Party's 17th leader.Tony Abbott and Angus Taylor share a laugh while standing in a brightly lit hallway. Both are wearing dark suits. Tony Abbott (left) and Angus Taylor (r…
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/who-is-angus-taylor-the-…
+ 1 more evidence source
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“deposed Liberal leader Sussan Ley extracted her ultimate revenge in triggering the byelection. Once she announced she was quitting the seat”
CORROBORATED
Confirmed by Wikipedia, Deutsche Welle, and other news sources that Sussan Ley resigned from the seat of Farrer, triggering the by-election.
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web search NEUTRAL — Sussan Penelope Ley is an Australian retired politician who served as the leader of the Opposition and the leader of the Liberal Party from 2025 to 2026.She has formally announced her intention to ret…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sussan_Ley
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web search NEUTRAL — It is official: Sussan Ley's time in federal parliament is over. Dumped as Liberal leader just a fortnight ago, her resignation today sets in motion a by-ele...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvjqrG1adeQ
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web search NEUTRAL — The move by Ms Ley will formally trigger a byelection process in Farrer, which extends from Albury to Wentworth along the Victorian border and north to the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area. The Speaker wi…
https://www.crookwellgazette.com.au/story/9185196/sussan-ley…
+ 1 more evidence source
info
“Last election Ley received a primary vote of about 43%. This time, on Saturday night’s numbers, the Liberals were polling about 12%.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While the general context of the by-election is verified, the specific polling numbers (43% for Ley previously and 12% for Liberals now) are only found in one specific web search result ('One Nation Claims Historic Farrer Seat Amid Liberal Party Collapse'). Other sources mention the Liberal vote 'crashed' or was 'around 11%', but do not explicitly confirm the 43% baseline in the same context.
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web search NEUTRAL — She held the position until being defeated by Angus Taylor in leadership spill in 2026. Ley was the first woman in Australian history to hold either leadership position. She has formally announced her…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sussan_Ley
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web search NEUTRAL — In the actual by-election, if the combined Liberal and National Party primary vote is considerably higher than that of Milthorpe’s primary vote, it’s possible that the Liberal Party can pass Milthorpe…
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/farrerby2026
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web search NEUTRAL — Voters in the Farrer by-election had the choice of 12 candidates.Former Liberal leader Sussan Ley, whose resignation sparked the by-election, released a statement statement expressing "immense disappo…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-09/farrer-sat-night-resu…
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“The Liberals had a weak candidate in Raissa Butkowski.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources, including ABC News, Corowa Free Press, and Deutsche Welle, confirm Raissa Butkowski was the Liberal candidate.
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web search NEUTRAL — A by-election will be held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of parliament for the New South Wales division of Farrer. The election follows the resignation of former opposition leader and t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Farrer_by-election
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web search NEUTRAL — Raissa Butkowski has been nominated as the Liberal candidate for the seat of Farrer. (ABC News: Philippe Perez). In short: The Liberals have selected lawyer Raissa Butkowski to contest the Farrer by-e…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-15/liberal-by-election-c…
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web search NEUTRAL — Libs select Farrer candidate. By Corowa Free Press.The Liberal Party of Australia has selected Albury City councillor and community lawyer, Raissa Butkowski as its candidate in the May 9 by-election.
https://www.corowafreepress.com.au/news/libs-select-farrer-c…
+ 1 more evidence source
info
“The Nationals, able to be in the field for the first time in a quarter of a century, were polling just behind the Liberals (about 10%) on Saturday night.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The specific polling figure of 'about 10%' for the National Party is mentioned in only one web search result. Other sources confirm the by-election occurred but do not provide this specific percentage.
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web search NEUTRAL — A by-election is scheduled to be held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of Parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer. The election follows the resignation of former opposit…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Farrer_by-election
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web search NEUTRAL — Election data indicates a massive 34% swing toward One Nation, with Farley capturing approximately 40% of the primary vote. In contrast, the Liberal Party's support plummeted from 43% in the previous …
https://www.fakta.co/one-nation-wins-farrer-seat
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web search NEUTRAL — One Nation has won the Farrer federal byelection - the first time the party has won an election for a federal House of Representatives seat. At the same time, the Liberal vote has crashed, with ...
https://theconversation.com/one-nation-wins-farrer-byelectio…
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“This is the first time One Nation has won a House of Representatives seat.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent sources (ABC News and other web results) explicitly state that this is the first time One Nation has won a federal House of Representatives seat.
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web search NEUTRAL — Stream live and on-demand sports: Dallas Stars, Anaheim Ducks, Texas Rangers, NWSL, WHL, and more. Access regional game coverage on all your devices. VICTORY+ is where fans win.
https://victoryplus.com/
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web search NEUTRAL — Watch Victory+ for free at home or on the go, and stream easily on your TV, phone, tablet, or laptop. From regular season matchups to playoff moments, Victory+ has the games you want. NHL Hockey: Live…
https://apps.apple.com/us/app/victory-watch-live-sports/id64…
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web search NEUTRAL — Victory+ is an American free ad-supported streaming television (FAST) sports network owned by Calgary -based A Parent Media Co. It officially launched in September 2024, ahead of the 2024–25 NHL seaso…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory+
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“revelations that its candidate, David Farley, had previously wanted to be a candidate for Labor and in the 2025 election embraced independent Michelle Milthorpe”
CORROBORATED
The Guardian and other web results confirm David Farley was the candidate and that he had previously sought cooperation/candidacy with Labor and the 'Voices' movement (associated with Milthorpe).
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web search NEUTRAL — One Nation’s Farrer candidate, David Farley, sought to cooperate with the community independent “Voices” movement before the last election, including discussing preferences and suggesting a platform f…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/may/08/one-n…
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web search NEUTRAL — Michelle Milthorpe was an independent candidate in the 2025 election and was supported by the community group Voices of Farrer and the Climate 200 fundraising organisation.[37] On 13 February, she ann…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Farrer_by-election
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web search NEUTRAL — Support for Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski, according to several published polls, has fallen to 16.1 per cent, well behind One Nation (30.9 per cent) and Milthorpe (30 per cent), according to a uC…
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/one-nation-byelectio…
help
“Milthorpe, who has had a swing of about 8% to her, could not lift her vote to catch the One Nation surge, which had a swing to it of 34% (having polled under 7% last time).”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results to confirm the specific swing percentages of 8% for Milthorpe or 34% for One Nation.
verified
“Labor’s decision not to contest the seat”
VERIFIED
Confirmed by a cross-reference from BBC News stating that Labor is not contesting the race.
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cross reference SUPPORTS — Labor is not contesting the race
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy2e4z4npro?at_medium=RSS…
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“Milthorpe’s primary vote is about 28% to Farley’s 40%. On a two candidate basis Farley leads Milthorpe about 59-41%.”
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“One Nation’s victory in Farrer follows a successful result in South Australia, where the party snatched four lower house seats and three in the upper house.”
PENDING
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“the state Liberals, despite retaining Nepean in last weekend’s byelection”
PENDING
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“Helen Haines, the community independent who holds the Victorian seat of Indi”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.