Victorian polls have Coalition leading Labor by narrow to large margins

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · Aug 21, 2026 · 880 words · By Adrian Beaumont

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What to know about Victorian polls have Coalition leading Labor by narrow to large margins

The article provides a summary of recent political polling data for the Victorian state election, a Queensland state poll, and a federal Morgan poll, while also noting an upcoming byelection in Western Australia. It focuses on primary vote percentages, two-party preferred leads, and the net approval ratings of various political leaders.

Propaganda risk 10%

Claims checked 31

Techniques found 0

Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Right coverage

Left20%

Center80%

Right0%

5 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

It’s about three months until the Victorian state election on November 28.

Why it matters

Five polls have been released since Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as Labor leader and premier on July 28.

Common ground

These polls have the Coalition leading Labor after preferences by between 51–49 (Morgan SMS) and 57–43 (Redbridge).

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

Follow-up questions

What concrete event or decision sits underneath the headline: Victorian polls have Coalition leading Labor by narrow to large margins?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that In contests between the Coalition and One Nation, Labor preferences favoured the Coalition by 73–27?
What should readers watch for in the next update to know whether the story is changing?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/victorian-polls-have-coalition-leading-labor-by-narr…

analyticsAnalysis

10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 31 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 21

check_circle Corroborated 4

verified Verified By Reference 3

info Single Source 2

help Insufficient Evidence 1

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Claim 1: “In contests between the Coalition and One Nation, Labor preferences favoured the Coalition by 73–27”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results to confirm or deny the specific preference flow from Labor to the Coalition over One Nation at 73-27%.

info

Claim 2: “A Victorian state Resolve poll for The Age, conducted August 9–15 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Coalition 27% of the primary vote... Labor 25%... One Nation 23%... the Greens 12%... independents 7%... and others 6%”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific primary vote breakdown (Coalition 27%, Labor 25%, etc.) is not corroborated by other independent sources in the provided evidence; only general mentions of Resolve polls exist.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — In August the Coalition led Labor by 53–47, and I am assuming this was still the case given the lack of change on primary votes. This graph will follow Victorian polls in the lead-up to the election.
https://theconversation.com/coalition-retains-clear-lead-in-…

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web search NEUTRAL — After 7 years, tommy brailey has been found! Today, we traveled to Sumter, South Carolina, to continue searching for missing person, Tommy Brailey, who disappeared from Brewers Bar and Grill in 2017 a…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CB34Rq3ZyUs

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The Resolve Political Monitor survey, conducted for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age from September 6 to 12, shows 74 per cent of the 2250 voters surveyed were concerned about the national debt.
https://www.nine.com.au/australia-news/new-poll-reveals-1-tr…

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Claim 3: “At the March 2025 WA election, Papalia defeated the Liberals after preferences by 61.5–38.5 from primary votes of 46.6% Papalia, 25.0% Liberals, 8.8% Greens, 8.4% One Nation and 5.9% Legalise Cannabis”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 4: “By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 51.5–48.5”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 5: “the Victorian state election on November 28”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia and multiple cross-references explicitly state the 2026 Victorian state election is scheduled for November 28.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the history of the United Kingdom and the British Empire, the Victorian era was the reign of Queen Victoria, from 20 June 1837 until her death on 22 January 1901, although slightly different defini…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victorian_era

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2026 Victorian state election in November 2026, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourabil…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_V…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Royal Victorian Order (French: Ordre royal de Victoria) is a dynastic order of knighthood established in 1896 by Queen Victoria. It recognises distinguished personal service to the monarch, member…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Victorian_Order

+ 2 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 6: “By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by an unchanged 53–47”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 7: “One Nation’s drop to the low 20s makes it easier for the Coalition to win a majority of the 88 lower house seats”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia and multiple web sources confirm the Victorian Legislative Assembly (lower house) consists of 88 seats.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — A state general election is scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly and all 40 seats in the Legislative C…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Victorian_state_election

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Victorian Legislative Assembly is the state lower house of the bicameral Parliament of Victoria in Australia; the state upper house being the Victorian Legislative Council. Both houses sit at Parl…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victorian_Legislative_Assembly

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 8: “Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s jumped five points to +18”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 9: “One Nation state leader Warren Pickering had a net zero likeability”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 10: “By 46–34, respondents did not think Carroll replacing Allan as Labor leader represented a genuinely significant change in direction and performance”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 11: “Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s net approval is in positive double digits”

CORROBORATED

Web search results confirm Jess Wilson is the Liberal leader and specifically state her net approval is in positive double digits (citing +18).

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Jessica Kate Wilson (born 25 April 1990) is an Australian politician who has served as the leader of the Opposition in Victoria and the leader of the Victorian Liberal Party since 2025. She has been t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jess_Wilson

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Victorian Liberal Party, officially known as the Liberal Party of Australia (Victorian Division), and branded as Liberal Victoria, is the state division of the Liberal Party of Australia in Victor…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victorian_Liberal_Party

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 12: “Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as Labor leader and premier on July 28”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia entries for Ben Carroll and the 'Premiership of Ben Carroll' explicitly confirm he became the 50th Premier of Victoria and Labor leader on July 28, 2026.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Benjamin Alan Carroll (born 12 July 1975) is an Australian politician and lawyer who has served as the 50th premier of Victoria and the leader of the Victorian Labor Party since July 2026. He has been…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Carroll

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The premier of Victoria is the head of government of the state of Victoria in Australia. The premier leads the Cabinet of Victoria and selects its ministers. The premier is appointed by the governor o…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_of_Victoria

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The premiership of Ben Carroll has been the state-level executive government of the Australian state of Victoria since 28 July 2026. Carroll, a member of the Victorian Labor Party, was appointed by th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premiership_of_Ben_Carroll

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 13: “Labor has governed in Victoria for the last 12 years and 23 of the last 27”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web search results explicitly state that Labor has governed Victoria for the last 12 years and 23 of the last 27 years.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — For the Victorian political party between 1938 and 1943, see Liberal Country Party.The Liberal Party was defeated in the 1982 Victorian state election after governing Victoria for 27 years. Following …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victorian_Liberal_Party

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Labor has governed in Victoria for the last 12 years and 23 of the last 27, so there's probably an "it's time" factor. The Resolve poll is below. I've previously covered the DemosAU, Morgan, Freshwate…
https://au.news.yahoo.com/victorian-polls-coalition-leading-…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — By November 2026, Labor will have governed for the last 12 years and 23 of the last 27 years. It’s reasonable to expect an “it’s time” factor at the next election. It’s plausible that federal Labor’s …
https://theconversation.com/labor-leads-in-two-victorian-sta…

schedule

Claim 14: “A Queensland state Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted with the federal July and August Resolve polls from a sample of 868, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) 34% of the primary vote... Labor 25%... One Nation 20%... the Greens 10%... independents 6%... and others 5%”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 15: “Carroll’s net likeability was -4, far better than Allan’s -36 in July”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

check_circle

Claim 16: “this one gave the Coalition a 53–47 lead over Labor by respondent preferences”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web search results confirm the August Resolve poll gave the Coalition a 53-47 lead over Labor on respondent preferences.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — These polls have the Coalition leading Labor after preferences by between 51–49 (Morgan SMS) and 57–43 (Redbridge).Resolve doesn't usually publish a two-party estimate for its state polls, but this on…
https://au.news.yahoo.com/victorian-polls-coalition-leading-…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Respondent allocated polling from ReachTEL shows a reduction in Labor’s lead. It is likely that most hard right voters who have deserted the Coalition will return after preferences. At the 2016 electi…
https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/news/5750-newspoll-53-47…

schedule

Claim 17: “Wilson had led Allan by 43–24 in July”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 18: “By 46–34, they thought Wilson and the Liberals were capable of governing the state effectively”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 19: “There are a total of 16 candidates for the byelection, including Labor, One Nation, the Liberals and the Greens”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 20: “A byelection for the Western Australian Labor-held state seat of Secret Harbour will occur on August 29 after former Labor MP Paul Papalia resigned in July”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 21: “Crisafulli led Miles as preferred premier by 41–22”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 22: “In a three-way preferred premier question, Wilson had 26%, Carroll 20% and Pickering 10%”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 23: “analyst Kevin Bonham has the LNP leading Labor by about 55–45”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 24: “They led the Coalition by 52–48”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 25: “Labor leader Steven Miles’ was up five points to -6”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 26: “These polls have the Coalition leading Labor after preferences by between 51–49 (Morgan SMS) and 57–43 (Redbridge)”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific polling margins (51-49 for Morgan SMS and 57-43 for Redbridge) are mentioned in one web search result. Other results discuss general leads but do not confirm these specific numbers.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Opinion polling on whether to change the Australian Constitution to establish an Indigenous Voice has been conducted since 2017, when Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander leaders petitioned for such …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_A…

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls, often for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary v…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_A…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Oct 25, 2021 · Google Sheets QUERY - how to use AND and OR at the same time Hi I'm struggling with Query function that will display all Cells containing certain value and then use several other parame…
https://support.google.com/docs/thread/132394436/google-shee…

+ 2 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 27: “A national Morgan poll, conducted August 10–16 from a sample of 1,576, gave Labor 28.5% of the primary vote... One Nation 25%... the Coalition 23.5%... the Greens 12.5%... and all Others 10.5%”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 28: “By 72–3, respondents thought politicians should be questioned publicly about corruption of the Big Build infrastructure program once a royal commmission is established”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 29: “The last WA state poll from DemosAU in early June gave Labor a 53–47 two-party lead over the Liberals... from primary votes of 33% Labor, 23% Liberals, 3% Nationals, 18% One Nation, 12% Greens and 11% for all Others”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 30: “LNP Premier David Crisafulli’s net likeability was steady at +16”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

check_circle

Claim 31: “In contests between Labor and the Coalition, One Nation preferences favoured the Coalition by 77–23”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web search results explicitly state that One Nation preferences flowed to the LNP/Coalition at a rate of 77-23.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Resolve doesn't usually publish a two-party estimate for its state polls, but this one gave the Coalition a 53–47 lead over Labor by respondent preferences. In contests between Labor and the Coalition…
https://au.news.yahoo.com/victorian-polls-coalition-leading-…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Preference flows from One Nation were 77–23 to the LNP, while Legalise Cannabis were 57.5–42.5 to Labor and the Greens were 79–21 to Labor.One Nation’s preference flow may have changed since the last …
https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/news/64533-labor--albane…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Preference flows from One Nation were 77–23 to the LNP, while Legalise Cannabis were 57.5–42.5 to Labor and the Greens were 79–21 to Labor.One Nation’s preference flow may have changed since the last …
https://theconversation.com/labor-albanese-and-the-voice-sli…

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.