“However, US and Israeli military officials believe that around half of the Islamic Republic’s missile launchers and thousands of one-way attack drones are still operational, and roughly 60% of its navy – mostly fast-attack speedboats – is intact.”

“Iran’s support for Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement is degraded, but not severed.”

“Meanwhile, the status of Tehran’s nuclear weapons program remains unchanged: both Iran and US intelligence assessments maintain that it has been paused since 2003.”

“Iran has, in the words of Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, “had two decades to study defeats of the US military to our immediate east and west,” and has “incorporated lessons accordingly.””

“The most valuable of these is the concept of “mosaic defense” where commanders of Iran’s regional military districts are empowered to conduct strikes without approval from Tehran.”

“This has allowed the IRGC to order attacks on Israeli and Gulf targets despite dozens of its senior leaders in the Iranian capital being killed.”

“A combination of satellite footage, media reports, and social media footage makes, it possible to confirm that the following US bases have been hit, often more than once: Naval Support Activity, Bahrain; Erbil International Airport, Iraq; Al-Asad Airbase, Iraq; Victory Base complex (Baghdad International Airport area); Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan; Ali Al-Salem Air Base, Kuwait; Camp Buehring, Kuwait; Camp Arifjan, Kuwait; Mohammed Al-Ahmad Naval Base, Kuwait; Al-Udeid Air Base, Qatar; Al-Dhafra Air Base, UAE; Jebel Ali Port, UAE; Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia; These facilities account for more than half of the US’ temporary and permanent military bases in the region, which together host between 40,000 and 50,000 American troops at any given time.”

“Iran’s target selection appears methodical, with radar installations prioritized in the early days of the conflict. Among the equipment hit was an AN/FPS-132 early warning radar system at Al Udeid Air Base, one of only six worldwide, and an AN/TPS-59 radar dome at Naval Support Activity Bahrain.”

“Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub were both hit by drones on March 2.”

“Production at Ras Laffan has since been indefinitely halted, wiping out a fifth of the world’s LNG supply.”

“Iran broadened its campaign of energy strikes after an Israeli attack on its Pars gas field on March 18, and has since struck dozens of refineries, pipelines, and extraction sites in Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, while its allied militias have struck oil fields and refineries in Iraq.”

“The Pentagon suffered several humiliations in the opening weeks of the conflict: fires and plumbing failures aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford; the forced retreat of two aircraft carriers – the Ford and the USS Abraham Lincoln – out of range of Iranian missiles; the evacuation of tanker aircraft from Al-Udeid and Prince Sultan airbases under Iranian fire; the downing of five fighter jets; and a series of ‘friendly fire’ incidents that Tehran claims were concocted to conceal the US’ true losses.”

“Damage to American bases in the region is far more extensive than publicly acknowledged by the Pentagon, and may take several years and “up to $5 billion to repair,” NBC News reported in late April.”

“At least 15 US service personnel have been killed and more than 520 wounded since February 28, although the Pentagon has been accused of manipulating casualty lists to hide its true losses.”

“At least 48 senior Iranian political, clerical, and defense officials have been assassinated, including seven Defense Ministry and IRGC leaders killed at the same Iranian Defense Council meeting on February 28.”

“Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iranian Defence Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani, IRGC Commander-in-Chief Mohammad Pakpour, Iranian Armed Forces Chief of the General Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi, Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, Head of the Military Office of the Supreme Leader Mohammad Shirazi, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani, Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib were among the officials killed.”

“Khamenei’s daughter, son-in-law, and granddaughter were killed alongside the supreme leader, while former Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi and IRGC budget chief Jamshid Eshaghi, among others, lost their wives and children to US and Israeli missiles.”

“According to Tehran’s figures, almost 3,500 people have been killed and 26,500 wounded in Iran since the conflict began, just under half of them civilians.”

“The Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which just under a third of the world’s seaborne oil and a fifth of its LNG flows, has been de-facto closed since the beginning of the conflict.”

“Iran formalized the blockade on March 4, with the IRGC announcing that it alone would decide which ships could pass through the 34km-wide strait.”

“In late March, passage was opened up to shipping from neutral countries willing to pay tolls, but shut down again in April after the US imposed its own blockade on the strait.”

“The American ‘double blockade’ is Trump’s latest strategy to resolve the crisis.”

“Within the span of two weeks Trump declared the strait open, begged his NATO “allies” and China to help open it, threatened to unleash “hell” on Iran if it did not allow shipping through, before settling on imposing a blockade of his own on the Strait on April 13.”

“The Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which just under a third of the world’s seaborne oil and a fifth of its LNG flows, has been de-facto closed since the beginning of the conflict.”

“Major international energy agencies, including the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA), the International Air Association (IATA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as shipping giants such as Vitol have warned of an energy crisis that could be substantially larger than the oil shocks of the 1970s.”

“OPEC, the oil producing cartel, has also fractured, with the United Arab Emirates leaving in April 2026.”

“Around one-third of the global fertilizer trade passes through the region, making this disruption a particularly ominous one for food prices.”

“A ceasefire between the US and Iran took effect on April 8, with Israel and Hezbollah entering a fragile truce a week later.”

“Iran wants an immediate end to hostilities, security guarantees, and the lifting of the US blockade, while the US wants any deal to involve restrictions on Iran’s nuclear enrichment.”

“According to Reuters, however, Trump is unhappy with Tehran’s latest proposal, and talks remain at an impasse.”

“Washington’s European allies have refused Trump’s pleas and admonishments for help, American warplanes are banned from NATO airbases in multiple European countries, and even former backers of Trump, like Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, have distanced themselves from the US president.”

“With Trump’s approval rating sinking to a new low of 34% on April 29, the embattled president faces a new legal threat on May 1, when, 60 days after he first notified Capitol Hill of the war, Congress is formally required to authorize its continuation.”

“Israel has continued to wage war on Lebanon, regardless of the insistence by two parties to the negotiations that the Jewish state was bound to a ceasefire agreement.”