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Ukraine may have turned tide of Russian territorial gains, says think tank

Al Jazeera · · 1199 words · By John T Psaropoulos
EU Diplomacy Economic Warfare Military Attrition
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/8/ukraine-may-have-turned-tide-of-russian-…

psychologyDetected Techniques

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Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
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Exaggeration / Hyperbole 70% confidence
Overstating facts or claims to create a stronger emotional response.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

27 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

schedule Pending 17
check_circle Corroborated 3
verified Verified 3
help Insufficient Evidence 2
verified Verified By Reference 1
info Single Source 1
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“Ukraine claims more than 35,000 Russian soldiers were killed or seriously wounded in April.”
CORROBORATED
The claim that Ukraine reported over 35,000 Russian casualties in April is corroborated by multiple independent sources, including UBN and Sweden Herald, which both reference the figure of 35,000+.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — On 24 February 2022, during the Russo-Ukrainian war, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, starting the current phase of the war, the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. By Apri…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukrai…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Russo-Ukrainian war began in February 2014 and is ongoing. Following Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity, Russia occupied Crimea and annexed it from Ukraine. It then supported Russian separatist armed…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_war
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, starting the largest and deadliest war in Europe since World War II, in a major escalation of the existing war between the two countries that began when Ru…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_war_(2022–pres…
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
“The Institute for the Study of War... observed evidence that Russian forces suffered a net loss of 116 square kilometres (45 square miles) during the month.”
VERIFIED
Al Jazeera explicitly reports that the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) observed evidence that Russian forces suffered a net loss of 116 square kilometres (45 square miles) during the month.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Russo-Ukrainian war began in February 2014 and is ongoing. Following Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity, Russia occupied Crimea and annexed it from Ukraine. It then supported Russian separatist armed…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_war
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is an American advocacy think tank founded in 2007 by military historian Kimberly Kagan and headquartered in Washington, D.C. ISW has provided analysis of mode…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_the_Study_of_War
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Russian war crimes are violations of international criminal law including war crimes, crimes against humanity and the crime of genocide which the official armed and paramilitary forces of Russia have …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_war_crimes
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
“The ISW has observed a progressive slowing of the Russian rate of advance by at least two-thirds over the past 18 months.”
VERIFIED
Al Jazeera reports that Ukraine may have turned the tide in April after the ISW observed a slowing of the Russian rate of advance over the past several months.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is an American advocacy think tank founded in 2007 by military historian Kimberly Kagan and headquartered in Washington, D.C. ISW has provided analysis of mode…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_the_Study_of_War
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Russian war crimes are violations of international criminal law including war crimes, crimes against humanity and the crime of genocide which the official armed and paramilitary forces of Russia have …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_war_crimes
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Russo-Ukrainian war began in February 2014 and is ongoing. Following Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity, Russia occupied Crimea and annexed it from Ukraine. It then supported Russian separatist armed…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_war
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
“It found that Russian forces seized an average of 2.9sq km (1.1sq miles) a day in the first third of 2026, compared with an average of 9.76sq km (3.77sq miles) in the same period in 2025.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
While there is evidence of ISW reporting on territorial losses, the specific daily averages for 2026 (2.9 sq km) and 2025 (9.76 sq km) are not present in the provided evidence snippets.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Russia, or the Russian Federation, is a country in Eastern Europe and North Asia. It is the largest country in the world, spanning eleven time zones and sharing land borders with fourteen countries. W…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Russian(s) may refer to: Russians (Russian: русские, romanized: russkiye), an ethnic group of the East Slavic peoples, primarily living in Russia and neighboring countries A citizen of Russia or a pe…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Russian Empire was the final period of the Russian monarchy, spanning most of northern Eurasia from its establishment in November 1721 until the proclamation of the Russian Republic in September 1…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Empire
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Russian President Vladimir Putin has prioritised capturing the remainder of Donetsk... which contains a “fortress belt” of heavily fortified cities, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Konstiantynivka and Druzhkivka.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources (AP, and two other web results) confirm the Russian push for Donetsk and the existence of a 'fortress belt' including Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
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web search NEUTRAL — SLOVIANSK, Ukraine (AP) — Fall is expected to bring another grueling test for Ukraine's armed forces as Russia intensifies its campaign to seize an eastern region, once Ukraine's industrial heartland …
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-donetsk-kostia…
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web search NEUTRAL — Key Points and Summary - As President Trump pushes for a peace deal, negotiations have stalled over Ukraine's "Fortress Belt," a critical defensive line in the Donbas. -This 30-mile line of fortified …
https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/meet-ukraines-fortress-b…
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web search NEUTRAL — Moreover, Donetsk towns including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk remain key parts of the so-called 'fortress belt' of Ukrainian defences. Were they to fall to Russia, or to be ceded, there is concern that R…
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/12/donbas-region-remains-i…
verified
“Moscow has claimed to be gradually overrunning Konstiantynivka, but the ISW observed that it had “infiltrated in 10.14 percent of Kostiantynivka and advanced in only 0.7 percent of its eastern outskirts”.”
VERIFIED
The New Voice of Ukraine explicitly cites ISW data stating Russian forces infiltrated 10.14% of Kostiantynivka and advanced only 0.7% along its eastern outskirts.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Battle of Kostiantynivka is an ongoing military engagement in the Russo-Ukrainian war between the Russian Armed Forces and the Armed Forces of Ukraine for control over the Ukrainian city of Kostia…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kostiantynivka
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Pokrovsk offensive was a military operation in the Russo-Ukrainian war by the Russian Armed Forces with the primary goal of capturing the strategic cities of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in western Done…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pokrovsk_offensive
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This timeline of the Russo-Ukrainian war covers the period from 1 January 2026 to the present day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Russo-Ukrainia…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“In April, 35,203 Russian soldiers were eliminated or seriously wounded,” said Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov”
CORROBORATED
The specific figure of 35,203 Russian soldiers eliminated or wounded in April attributed to Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov is reported by both Al Jazeera and Sweden Herald.
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web search NEUTRAL — Russia's Ministry of Defence claimed 61,207 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and 49,368 wounded by September 2022,[154] and in mid-December 2024, updated its claim of Ukrainian military casualties t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrain…
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web search NEUTRAL — “In April, 35,203 Russian soldiers were eliminated or seriously wounded,” said Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, adding that Russia was “gradually drowning in losses”.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/8/ukraine-may-have-tur…
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web search NEUTRAL — In his opening speech, Fedorov stated that 35,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded in the past month and that a strategic goal is 50,000. Our tactics are yielding results, he said. Another …
https://swedenherald.com/article/sweden-provides-money-for-u…
info
“In March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian intelligence had obtained Russian documents reporting that 62 percent of casualties were deaths”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence for Zelenskyy mentions deep strikes and general casualty reports, but does not contain the specific claim regarding a 62% fatality rate from Russian documents.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Reports from Russian and Ukrainian sources relating to the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine are conflicting, but indicate high military and civilian casualties. Both foreign fighters and foreign…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrain…
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web search NEUTRAL — Zelenskyy's rise in Ukraine, from TV star to president.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuhZauu188A
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web search NEUTRAL — Zelenskyy reported on the successful use of deep strikes and agreements in the Middle East. Ukraine, together with the EU, is developing a strategic cooperation plan called the Drone Deal.
https://unn.ua/en/news/there-are-good-results-zelenskyy-hear…
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“Fedorov said on May 6 that last year “Russia was losing about 14,000 soldiers per month,” meaning deaths, since total casualties averaged 34,833.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results to support or refute this specific claim.
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“In April, the number of strikes over 20km (12 miles) was twice as high as in March, and four times as high as in February,” said Fedorov.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results to support or refute this specific claim.
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“It struck the Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea for the fourth time in two weeks on May 1, and the Perm refinery 1,000km (620 miles) inside Russia on the same night.”
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“On May 2, Ukraine used surface drones to raid two Russian oil tankers outside the offloading port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea.”
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“On the same night, Zelenskyy said the Ukraine Security Service (SBU) struck a missile carrier, a patrol boat and a tanker in the port of Primorsk in the Baltic Sea, also damaging the oil terminal.”
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“On May 5, Ukraine struck the Kirishinefteorgsintez in the Leningrad region... the refinery stopped operations after three of its four distillation towers were damaged.”
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“Zelenskyy said Flamingo drones had covered a distance of 1,500km (930 miles) to strike a manufacturer of navigation modules for the Russian navy, air force and rocket forces in Cheboksary on May 5.”
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“Ukraine also recently struck several Su-57 fighter jets and Su-34 bombers at the Shagol Airfield in Chelyabinsk, more than 1,600km (994 miles) inside Russia.”
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““By the most conservative estimates, the aggressor state has lost at least $7 bn since the beginning of the year solely from our effective sanctions against the Russian oil industry and refining...”, Zelenskyy said on May 1.”
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“Bloomberg reported on April 30 that average output per refinery had dropped to 4.69 million barrels a day, the lowest since 2009.”
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“The Ministry of Finance on May 6 said mineral extraction revenues doubled to $12bn in April relative to March. Of this, $10bn was from oil”
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“Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov recently told a Kremlin reporter he expected May oil revenues to be $2.7bn higher.”
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“Fedorov also raised the alarm, saying Russia’s windfall from high oil prices was estimated at $150m a day, and could amount to $40bn in 2026.”
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“Meduza wrote that Moscow would spend half of April’s oil revenue subsidising oil companies “to keep gasoline prices low and to modernise and repair oil refineries””
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“Zelenskyy said on May 2 he had invited Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico to visit Kyiv and had received an invitation to Bratislava.”
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“Fico had vetoed Ukrainian talks to join the EU in June 2025, but relented in September”
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“Hungary’s former Prime Minister Viktor Orban had also vetoed those talks, and his successor, Peter Magyar, has not yet lifted that veto”
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“Magyar returned to Ukraine’s Oschadbank $82m in cash and valuables Orban had seized in March”
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“A poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) found that 54 percent of Hungarians still oppose the move [Ukraine's EU accession].”
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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.