Two Victorian polls have the Coalition leading Labor, with One Nation down

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · Aug 04, 2026 · 950 words · By Adrian Beaumont

Victorian Election Polling Australian Federal Political Trends UK Local Election Results

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What to know about Victorian Election Polling

The article reports on recent polling data for the upcoming Victorian state election and federal trends in Australia, comparing results from Redbridge, Freshwater, and Morgan polls. It also briefly notes the results of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester, UK.

Propaganda risk 10%

Claims checked 29

Techniques found 1

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Right coverage

Left25%

Center75%

Right0%

4 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

With less than four months until the Victorian election, two polls that were taken after last week’s change of premier have the Coalition leading Labor after preferences by 52–48 or 53–47.

Why it matters

One Nation’s primary vote has dropped 3–5 points since June to be at 22% in both polls.

Common ground

In federal polls, a Redbridge poll had the combined primary vote for One Nation and the Coalition surging six points since late June to 53%.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Victorian Election Polling story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that Labour defeated the populist right Reform by 66.3–33.7 after preferences, with their primary vote down 16.3 points from Burnham’s 63.4% in 2024?
How does this story connect Victorian Election Polling with Australian Federal Political Trends over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/two-victorian-polls-have-the-coalition-leading-labor…

analyticsAnalysis

10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 70% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 29 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 19

check_circle Corroborated 5

help Insufficient Evidence 4

info Single Source 1

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Claim 1: “Labour defeated the populist right Reform by 66.3–33.7 after preferences, with their primary vote down 16.3 points from Burnham’s 63.4% in 2024.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 2: “They led the Coalition by 52–48”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 3: “Since Burnham became PM on July 20, Labour’s vote in national polls has increased”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 4: “Carroll’s net favourability was -15 (29–14 unfavourable).”

CORROBORATED

The specific net favorability of -15 (29-14 unfavourable) for Ben Carroll is explicitly stated in the web search result 'Two Victorian polls have the Coalition leading Labor...'.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the 2026 Victorian state election in November 2026, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourabil…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_V…

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web search NEUTRAL — In federal polls, a Redbridge poll had the combined primary vote for One Nation and the Coalition surging six points since late June to 53%.Carroll's net favourability was -15 (29–14 unfavourable). Th…
https://au.news.yahoo.com/two-victorian-polls-coalition-lead…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Meet Gemini Notebook, the AI research tool and thinking partner that can analyze your sources, turn complexity into clarity and transform your content.
https://notebooklm.google/?original_referer=https://www.goog…

+ 1 more evidence source

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Claim 5: “Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s was steady at +13 (33–20 favourable).”

CORROBORATED

The web search result 'Victorian Redbridge poll has near three-way tie...' explicitly states Jess Wilson's net favourability was +13 (31% favourable, 18% unfavourable).

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Great British Bake Off (often abbreviated to Bake Off or GBBO) is a British television baking competition, produced by Love Productions, in which a group of amateur bakers compete against each oth…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_British_Bake_Off

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web search NEUTRAL — Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s net approval was steady at +15, and Wilson led Allan as preferred premier by 46–30 (47–31 previously). By 59–25, respondents thought the government is doing a bad job runn…
https://theconversation.com/two-victorian-polls-have-one-nat…

+ 2 more evidence sources

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Claim 6: “In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 32% (down one), Hanson 24% (up one) and Taylor 15% (up four).”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 7: “By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 54–46”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 8: “By 47–31, respondents trusted Wilson and the Coalition more than Carroll and Labor.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 9: “A national Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted July 27–30 from a sample of 1,001, gave One Nation 31% of the primary vote (up two since the late June Redbridge poll), Labor 29% (down one), the Coalition 22% (up four), the Greens 10% (down four) and all Others 8% (down one).”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 10: “Carroll’s net favourability was -7 (29–22 unfavourable)”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 11: “By 2025 election preference flows, Labor and the Coalition were tied at 50–50”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 12: “By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 53–47”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 13: “Wilson led as preferred premier by 48–27”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 14: “Wilson led Carroll as preferred premier by 32–19.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found regarding the preferred premier lead of Wilson over Carroll by 32-19.

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Claim 15: “Anthony Albanese’s net favourability was down one point to -19, Hanson’s was steady at =10 and Angus Taylor’s was up three points to -6.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 16: “Pauline Hanson’s net favourability with Victorians was down eight points to -17 (51–34 unfavourable).”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

The claim states Pauline Hanson's net favourability was -17. However, the evidence from Mirage News explicitly states her net favourability with Victorians was -9 (46% unfavourable, 37% favourable).

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has overtaken both Labor and the Coalition on the Victorian primary vote for the first time, while new polling suggests Premier Jacinta Allan’s government is relying heavil…
https://www.theindiansun.com.au/2026/07/02/three-way-race-em…

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web search NEUTRAL — Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is seeing a surge in popularity in Victoria.The right-wing populist party’s primary vote rose two percentage points to 31 as Labor dropped one point to 29 in the latest pol…
https://www.nine.com.au/australia-news/one-nation-tops-lates…

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web search NEUTRAL — Victorian Redbridge poll has near three-way tie on primary votes. The Victorian state election is in late November.Pauline Hanson's net favourability with Victorians was -9 (46% unfavourable, 37% favo…
https://www.miragenews.com/one-nation-leads-in-victorian-red…

schedule

Claim 17: “legislation to scrap group ticket voting in Victoria’s upper house... passed the lower house last Wednesday, upper house passage has been delayed until the August 11–13 parliamentary session.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 18: “A Freshwater poll for The Herald Sun, conducted July 31 to August 3 from a sample of 1,020, gave the Coalition 30% of the primary vote (up three since an early June Freshwater poll), Labor 25% (up two), One Nation 22% (down three), the Greens 14% (steady) and all Others 9% (down two).”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found regarding a Freshwater poll conducted July 31 to August 3.

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Claim 19: “By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by an unchanged 52.5–47.5.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 20: “Former Liberal PM John Howard’s net favourability was +22.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 21: “A Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted July 28 to August 1 from a sample of 1,014, gave the Coalition 30% of the primary vote (up four since the late June Redbridge poll), Labor 23% (down three), One Nation 22% (down five), the Greens 14% (up one) and all Others 11% (up three).”

SINGLE SOURCE

While there is evidence of Redbridge polls and the 2026 election, the specific primary vote numbers (Coalition 30%, Labor 23%, etc.) for the July 28-Aug 1 period are not explicitly detailed in the provided evidence snippets, although general trends are mentioned.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Various research and polling firms are conducting opinion polling before the next Australian federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the House …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electorate_opinion_polling_and…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the lead-up to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls, often for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary v…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_A…

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 22: “Wilson’s was up three points to +18 (39–21 favourable).”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 23: “Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as premier on July 28.”

CORROBORATED

Confirmed by multiple independent news sources (Xinhua, other web reports) and Wikipedia, stating Ben Carroll was sworn in as the 50th premier of Victoria on July 28 after Jacinta Allan's resignation.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Benjamin Alan Carroll (born 12 July 1975) is an Australian politician and lawyer who has served as the 50th premier of Victoria since July 2026, holding office as the leader of the Victorian Labor Par…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Carroll

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Carroll ministry is the 73rd ministry of the Government of Victoria. The Labor government is led by Premier Ben Carroll, with Gabrielle Williams serving as Deputy Premier. Carroll and Williams wer…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carroll_ministry

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The premier of Victoria is the head of government of the state of Victoria in Australia. The premier leads the Cabinet of Victoria and selects its ministers. The premier is appointed by the governor o…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_of_Victoria

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 24: “The Coalition led Labor by 52–48”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 25: “Owing to Andy Burnham’s June 18 election to the UK parliament, a byelection occurred last Thursday for his former office of Greater Manchester mayor.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 26: “By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 53–47”

CORROBORATED

The specific preference lead of Coalition 53-47 over Labor is explicitly mentioned in the web search result 'Two Victorian polls have the Coalition leading Labor...'.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A state general election is scheduled to be held on 13 March 2027 to elect members of the 59th Parliament of New South Wales. All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly will be up for election, along wi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_New_South_Wales_state_ele…

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 27: “A national Morgan poll, conducted July 27 to August 2 from a sample of 1,531, gave Labor 27.5% of the primary vote (steady since the July 20–26 Morgan poll), One Nation 24% (down 1.5), the Coalition 23.5% (up 1.5), the Greens 15% (up one) and all Others 10% (down one).”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 28: “The Coalition led Labor by 52–48 after preferences”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found regarding the Freshwater poll preference lead of 52-48.

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Claim 29: “The Victorian election is in late November.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources, including a Wikipedia entry on 'Opinion polling for the 2026 Victorian state election' and a Redbridge poll report via Mirage News, confirm the election is in November 2026.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — In the history of the United Kingdom and the British Empire, the Victorian era was the reign of Queen Victoria, from 20 June 1837 until her death on 22 January 1901, although slightly different defini…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victorian_era

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web search NEUTRAL — Her reign of 63 years and 216 days, which was longer than those of any of her predecessors, constituted the Victorian era, a period of industrial, political, scientific, and military change within the…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Victoria

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web search NEUTRAL — Jul 27, 2026 · During the Victorian period, Britain was a powerful nation with a rich culture. It had a stable government, a growing state, and an expanding franchise.
https://www.britannica.com/event/Victorian-era

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.