Trump’s US ratings drop to new record low as Democrats become clear favourites in both chambers of Congress

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · Sep 25, 2026 · 1058 words · By Adrian Beaumont

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What to know about Trump’s US ratings drop to new record low as Democrats become clear favourites in both chambers of Congress

The article analyzes polling data from Nate Silver to forecast the outcomes of the US midterm elections, focusing on Donald Trump's approval ratings and the potential impact of petrol prices and the Iran war. It details the specific margins Democrats need to win the House and Senate and examines current economic indicators.

Propaganda risk 10%

Claims checked 21

Techniques found 0

Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center100%

Right0%

6 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Donald Trump’s net approval has dropped to a new record low of -23.

Why it matters

In his forecast model, Democrats are the clear favourites to gain control of the US federal Senate at November 3 midterm elections, and overwhelming favourites to gain control of the House of Representatives.

Common ground

If disruption caused by the Iran war continues until the midterm elections, with increased petrol prices and inflation, Republicans are likely to lose control of both the House and the Senate, perhaps with huge losses.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

Follow-up questions

What concrete event or decision sits underneath the headline: Trump’s US ratings drop to new record low as Democrats become clear favourites in both chambers of Congress?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Donald Trump’s net approval has dropped to a new record low of -23?
What should readers watch for in the next update to know whether the story is changing?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/trumps-us-ratings-drop-to-new-record-low-as-democrat…

analyticsAnalysis

10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 21 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 11

check_circle Corroborated 5

help Insufficient Evidence 2

info Single Source 2

verified Verified By Reference 1

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Claim 1: “In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Donald Trump’s net approval has dropped to a new record low of -23.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent web sources, including the Silver Bulletin and The African Mirror, confirm that Nate Silver's aggregate shows Trump's net approval at a record low of -23 (or -22.5).

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, political analyst, author, sports gambler, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, football, and elections. He is…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Donald Trump's second and current tenure as the president of the United States began upon his inauguration as the 47th president on January 20, 2025. Trump, a Republican, previously served as the 45th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Donald_Tr…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Donald Trump's use of social media attracted attention worldwide since he joined Twitter in March 2009. Over nearly twelve years, Trump tweeted around 57,000 times, including about 8,000 times during …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media_use_by_Donald_Tru…

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 2: “Republican incumbent Susan Collins has led Democrat Troy Jackson in the last two Maine Senate polls, including a three-point lead in a Siena poll for The New York Times.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 3: “Democrats now lead by two to five points in Senate contests in Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Iowa.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 4: “Americans are currently paying an average of US$4.48 (A$6.69) a gallon for regular petrol”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 5: “The splits between Trump and Harris 2024 voters were not wide, with Trump voters favouring at least a moderate risk by 61–29 and Harris voters by 70–21.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 6: “Trump won all these states by double-digit margins in 2024.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 7: “Silver said a poll for Politico had 63% thinking there was at least a moderate risk of AI destroying humanity, compared with 22% who thought there was no or a very small risk.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 8: “Silver’s model gives Democrats a 69% chance to win the Senate and a 91% chance to win the House”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided in the search results regarding the specific probability percentages (69% Senate, 91% House) for Nate Silver's model.

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Claim 9: “the benchmark US S&P stock market index is down just 1.2% from its August 13 peak, but up 10.9% from its peak in the week before the Iran war began in late February. It’s up 16.9% from its worst point in the Iran war in late March.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 10: “The international benchmark Brent oil peaked at US$108.75 (A$155.17) a barrel on September 15, but fell to US$99.25 (A$141.61) on Tuesday before rising to its current US$105.81 (A$150.97).”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 11: “In Silver’s midterm election forecast model, the generic ballot gives Democrats a 51.4–42.3 lead over Republicans, a 9.1-point margin”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided in the search results regarding the specific generic ballot numbers (51.4-42.3) for Nate Silver's model.

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Claim 12: “All 435 federal House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 senators will be up for election at November 3 midterm elections.”

CORROBORATED

Three independent web sources confirm that the November 3, 2026, midterm elections will feature all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats.

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web search NEUTRAL — 15 hours ago · The 2026 US midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, will determine the balance of power in Congress during the second half of President Donald Trump's term. With all 435 voting sea…
https://www.wionews.com/photos/435-house-seats-35-senate-rac…

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web search NEUTRAL — Interactive map of every race on the November 3, 2026 ballot: 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governors, with certified candidates and market odds.
https://watch.vote/midterms/2026

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web search NEUTRAL — Every U.S. House seat is on the ballot in the 2026 midterm elections — all 435 districts with candidates, polling and ratings on the new maps.
https://political.org/2026-house-elections/

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Claim 13: “Republicans are trailing an independent in Nebraska by 0.2 points and only leading a Democrat in Kansas by 1.3 points.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 14: “The commodity price of petrol has surged from a low of US$2.99 (A$4.27) a gallon on August 27 to US$3.49 (A$4.89) now, but down from US$3.52 (A$5.02) on Wednesday. The Iran war high was US$3.76 (A$5.36) on May 18.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 15: “In 2024 elections, Republicans won the House by 220–215 over Democrats and the Senate by 53–47.”

CORROBORATED

The claim is confirmed by a cross-reference from The Conversation and multiple independent web sources stating Republicans won the House 220-215 and the Senate 53-47 in the 2024 elections.

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web search NEUTRAL — Republicans now hold a slight majority in both the House of Representatives (220-215) and the Senate (53-47), marking a full trifecta of power.The 2024 election made one thing clear: Americans are shi…
https://saratogafalcon.org/23886/opinion/the-progressive-mov…

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web search NEUTRAL — Republicans control the House (220-215), the Senate (53-47), and the White House.Republicans hold unified government (White House + 220-215 House + 53-47 Senate) for the first time since 2017-2019 — b…
https://uspollingdata.com/explainers/what-is-the-balance-of-…

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web search NEUTRAL — The post-election returns show Republicans retaining control of the House with roughly 220 seats to Democrats’ 215 in the initial counts and a Senate majority of 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats, meanin…
https://factually.co/fact-checks/politics/can-democrats-win-…

+ 1 more evidence source

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Claim 16: “Currently, 60.4% disapprove of his performance and 37.4% approve.”

SINGLE SOURCE

While the net approval of -23 is corroborated, the specific breakdown of 60.4% disapproval and 37.4% approval is not explicitly mirrored in the provided evidence snippets, though a similar figure (59.9% and 37.5%) appears in one source.

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 17: “Currently, 57.9% are opposed to the Iran war while 33.5% support it, for a net support of -24.4, down from -20.1 in my September 14 article.”

SINGLE SOURCE

While evidence confirms the existence of a 'US-Israel war on Iran' and that 59% oppose it (per Baptist News Global), the specific figures of 57.9% opposition, 33.5% support, and the September 14 comparison are not found in the provided evidence.

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web search NEUTRAL — US-Israel war on Iran. Strait of Hormuz. Did Iran capture a US submarine?Global energy prices have soared due to the US and Israel’s war on Iran and Russia’s war on Ukraine. Published On 3 Oct 20263 O…
https://www.aljazeera.com/tag/israel-iran-conflict/

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web search NEUTRAL — Send us your questions about how the Iran war will affect US voters in the midterms. Our politics and foreign policy reporters will answer your questions live in a Q&A on Tuesday 6 October.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/us-israel-war-on-iran

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web search NEUTRAL — Follow the latest news about the US-Israel war with Iran. Get expert analysis, reports from the ground, maps and verified videos from BBC journalists around the world.
https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cx2jyv8j8gwt

verified

Claim 18: “Trump’s net approval was -19.7 in my September 14 article. It had improved to -18.7 on September 4 before falling back.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided evidence confirms the current record low of -23, but does not contain the specific historical data points for September 14 (-19.7) or September 4 (-18.7).

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — At 80 years old, Donald Trump, the 45th and 47th president of the United States, became the oldest person in American history to become president upon his second inauguration in 2025. In July 2024, fi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_and_health_concerns_about_…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — On September 15, 2024, Donald Trump, then a former president of the United States and nominee of the Republican Party in the 2024 presidential election, survived an assassination attempt by 58-year-ol…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Don…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Donald John Trump Jr. (born December 31, 1977), often nicknamed Don Jr., is an American businessman and political activist. He is the eldest child of Donald Trump, the 45th and 47th president of the U…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_Jr.

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 19: “Trump’s net approval is below what any past president since Harry Truman had at this point in their term, with Trump’s first term the closest at -11.6.”

CORROBORATED

Two independent web sources explicitly state that Trump's net approval is below any past president since Harry Truman at this point in their term, specifically mentioning the first term comparison of -11.6.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Melania Knauss Trump (born Melanija Knavs; April 26, 1970) is a Slovenian and American former model serving as the first lady of the United States since 2025, a role she previously held from 2017 to 2…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melania_Trump

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Donald Trump, a Republican originally from New York, who moved his principal residency to Florida in 2019, was elected president of the United States in 2016. Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 201…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Donald_Trump_p…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) is the eighth Nimitz-class aircraft carrier of the United States Navy, and is named after the 33rd President of the United States, Harry S. Truman. She is homeported at Na…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Harry_S._Truman

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 20: “On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -13.0 on immigration, -28.3 on trade, -32.1 on the economy and -46.4 on inflation.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent sources (Baptist News Global and another news source) confirm the exact figures: -13.0 on immigration, -28.3 on trade, -32.1 on the economy, and -46.4 on inflation.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — FiveThirtyEight, also rendered as 538, was an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. The website, which took its name fr…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 21: “Kamala Harris defeated Trump in Maine by 6.9 points.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.