Trump’s net approval is near record low, with Democrats favoured to gain control of Congress at midterms

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · Aug 12, 2026 · 977 words · By Adrian Beaumont

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What to know about Trump’s net approval is near record low, with Democrats favoured to gain control of Congress at midterms

The article discusses Donald Trump's declining approval ratings and the potential outcomes of the upcoming US midterm elections based on Nate Silver's polling aggregates and models. It also analyzes recent US economic data, contrasting a surging stock market with weak jobs reports and declining personal savings.

Propaganda risk 10%

Claims checked 26

Techniques found 0

Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center50%

Right50%

2 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Since the Iran war resumed, Donald Trump’s net approval has dropped back, and he’s now at a near record low below -20, putting him below other past presidents at this point in their terms.

Why it matters

Midterm elections will be held on November 3.

Common ground

Democrats are the slight favourites to gain control of both chambers of Congress.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

Follow-up questions

What concrete event or decision sits underneath the headline: Trump’s net approval is near record low, with Democrats favoured to gain control of Congress at midterms?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that Donald Trump’s net approval has dropped back, and he’s now at a near record low below -20?
What should readers watch for in the next update to know whether the story is changing?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/trumps-net-approval-is-near-record-low-with-democrat…

analyticsAnalysis

10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 26 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 16

info Single Source 5

check_circle Corroborated 3

verified Verified By Reference 1

help Insufficient Evidence 1

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Claim 1: “Donald Trump’s net approval has dropped back, and he’s now at a near record low below -20”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources confirm Trump's net approval is near a record low. The Silver Bulletin specifically mentions an all-time low of -20.6, which aligns with the claim of being below -20.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Donald John Trump Jr. (born December 31, 1977), often nicknamed Don Jr., is an American businessman and political activist. He is the eldest child of Donald Trump, the 45th and 47th president of the U…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_Jr.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Trump family is a prominent wealthy American family. The best-known member is patriarch Donald Trump, the 45th and current 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present). The Trump…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_family

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 2: “On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -12.4 on immigration, -23.7 on trade, -29.9 on the economy and -42.3 on inflation.”

SINGLE SOURCE

While the Silver Bulletin is confirmed to be tracking these four topics (economy, immigration, trade, cost of living), the specific net approval percentages for each are not present in the provided evidence.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman. Nate Silver's avatar.We’re tracking how the public feels about Trump’s handling of four topics: the economy, imm…
https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-sil…

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web search NEUTRAL — Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the 45th president from 2…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Donald Trump’s net approval rating remains in the doldrums at -26, according to The Economist’s tracker of YouGov polling.And the administration is now locked into an escalating trade war with Canada.…
https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker

schedule

Claim 3: “All 435 federal House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 senators will be up for election at November 3 midterm elections.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 4: “Trump won all these states by double-digit margins in 2024.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 5: “Overall probabilities of control are 56% for Democrats winning both the House and Senate, 30% a Democratic House but Republican Senate and 13% that the Republicans hold both the House and Senate.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 6: “In January 2025, when Trump replaced Joe Biden as president, the employment population ratio was 60.1%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 7: “Since January, every month has had greater expenditure than income, pushing the personal savings rate down 1.7 points since January to 2.7%, the lowest it has been since June 2022.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 8: “In Michigan, left-wing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed won the August 4 primary, but he currently trails Republican Mike Rogers by 1.6 points in general election polls.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 9: “Currently, 58.5% disapprove of his performance and 38.1% approve.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided evidence mentions various approval/disapproval ratings (e.g., 33% approval/64% disapproval from Reuters/Ipsos), but none of the sources confirm the specific figures of 58.5% disapproval and 38.1% approval.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Trumpism is the political ideology behind Donald Trump, the 45th and 47th president of the United States, and his political base. It is often used in close conjunction with the Make America Great Agai…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trumpism

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+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 10: “Currently, 56.7% are opposed to the Iran war while 37.1% support it, for a net support of -19.6.”

SINGLE SOURCE

Evidence confirms there is a conflict/war with Iran and that public support is falling, but the specific percentages (56.7% opposed, 37.1% support) are not found in the provided text.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — US public support for Iran war falls as Trump approval at record low: Poll. Falling Republican support, rising gas prices, and fears of a long conflict drive a decline in backing for the Iran war.
https://www.aljazeera.com/where/iran/

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web search NEUTRAL — A defense official says Iran has prepared new weapons, equipment, technologies and tactics to be unveiled on the battlefield under the principle of surprise if another war breaks out.
https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/08/28/775216/Iran-prep…

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web search NEUTRAL — Poll: Utahns oppose war with Iran, but support most military objectives Deseret Morning News, Utah17:30.
https://www.newsnow.com/us/World/Middle+East/Iran

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Claim 11: “In 2024 elections, Republicans won the House by 220–215 over Democrats and the Senate by 53–47.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 12: “For the establishment survey, 23,000 jobs were lost, and the May and June jobs added were revised down by a total of 103,000.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 13: “Midterm elections will be held on November 3.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent news sources (TASS, France24) explicitly state that the US midterm elections will be held on November 3.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Election Day in the United States is the annual day for general elections of federal, state and local public officials. With respect to federal elections, it is statutorily set by the U.S. government …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_Day_(United_States)

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — "November Rain" is a song by American hard rock band Guns N' Roses. Written by the band's lead vocalist Axl Rose, the power ballad was released in February 1992, by Geffen Records, as the third single…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_Rain

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The November Man is a 2014 spy action thriller film based on the novel There Are No Spies by Bill Granger, which is the seventh installment in The November Man novel series, published in 1987. A Briti…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_November_Man

+ 4 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 14: “In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot polls, Democrats lead Republicans by 48.4–41.8, a 6.7-point margin.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 15: “Trump’s net approval had recovered from a low of -20.2 in late May to -16.6 on July 13.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific numbers (-20.2 in late May and -16.6 on July 13) appear in one news snippet, but are not corroborated by other independent sources in the evidence provided.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — On July 13, 2024, Donald Trump, then a former president of the United States and the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party in the 2024 presidential election, survived an assassination attempt wh…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Don…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — At 80 years old, Donald Trump, the 45th and 47th president of the United States, became the oldest person in American history to become president upon his second inauguration in 2025. In July 2024, fi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_and_health_concerns_about_…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — 2017 (MMXVII) was a common year starting on Sunday of the Gregorian calendar, the 2017th year of the Common Era (CE) and Anno Domini (AD) designations, the 17th year of the 3rd millennium and the 21s…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017

+ 3 more evidence sources

help

Claim 16: “Net support has increased from a low of -26 in mid-July.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found for this claim in the provided search results.

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Claim 17: “They lead the generic ballot by 6.7 points.”

CORROBORATED

Two separate web search results explicitly state that Democrats lead the generic ballot by 6.7 points.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — "Democrats Lead the Generic Ballot by 8 Points as Midterms Approach"."Democrats lead the U.S. House generic ballot by 8; voters back fair maps and oppose Trump's tariffs". Strength In Numbers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_elections

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web search NEUTRAL — Current generic ballot average: Democrats 48.2% — Republicans 41.5% (D+6.7), among the widest leads since August 2018. The Democratic lead has grown by +5.5 points since Trump's inauguration in Januar…
https://uspollingdata.com/polls/generic-ballot/

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web search NEUTRAL — Midterm elections will be held on November 3. Democrats are the slight favourites to gain control of both chambers of Congress. They lead the generic ballot by 6.7 points. While the US stock market ha…
https://theconversation.com/trumps-net-approval-is-near-reco…

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Claim 18: “the benchmark US S&P 500 stock market index has surged 5.6% since July 29, to be just 0.4% below its record high reached last Friday.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 19: “In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -20.4, just above a record low this term of -20.6 on July 30.”

SINGLE SOURCE

While the Silver Bulletin is mentioned as the source for approval ratings and the -20.6 low is cited in evidence for claim 0, the specific current figure of -20.4 is not independently corroborated across multiple sources in the provided evidence.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — FiveThirtyEight, also rendered as 538, was an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. The website, which took its name fr…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, political analyst, author, sports gambler, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, football, and elections. He is…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This article summarizes the results of polls taken during the second presidency of Donald Trump which gather and analyze public opinion on his administration's performance and policies. At the time wh…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_second_…

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 20: “In Australia, the employment population ratio was 64.0% in June.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 21: “Democrats have leads of three points or less in Texas, Ohio and Alaska and are behind by 0.3 points in Iowa.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 22: “Trump’s net approval is below what any past president since Harry Truman had at this point in their term, with Joe Biden the closest at -15.2.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The claim that Trump's approval is lower than any president since Truman and the specific figure for Joe Biden (-15.2) is found in one news snippet but not corroborated by other sources.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — presidential term, setting the precedent that a vice president who does so becomes the fully functioning president with a new, distinct administration.[13]. Throughout most of its history, American po…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_Unit…

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web search NEUTRAL — Trump’s net approval had recovered from a low of -20.2 in late May to -16.6 on July 13. But the resumption of the Iran war has pushed his ratings down again. Trump’s net approval is below what any pas…
https://www.indailysa.com.au/news/in-depth/2026/08/13/donald…

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web search NEUTRAL — This far into his first term, Trump was all the way up at -11.6, which is also right around where Joe Biden was at the same point in his presidency. In other Silver Bulletin news, we launched our 2026…
https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-sil…

schedule

Claim 23: “Democrats’ lead had peaked at 7.1 points in late May, but fallen back to 5.9 points on July 22.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 24: “The S&P is 11.3% above the level it was at in late February, before the Iran war began and 17.2% above its late March low.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 25: “The model gives Democrats a 57% chance to win the Senate and an 86% chance to win the House.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 26: “For the household survey, while the unemployment rate dropped 0.1% to 4.1%... The employment population ratio... dropped 0.1% to 58.9%.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.