Tropical cyclones now release ocean carbon, but warming could flip role by 2035

Phys · May 25, 2026 · 657 words · By Chinese Academy

Ocean Carbon Cycle climate_change Environmental Policy

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What to know about Ocean Carbon Cycle

An international research team has developed a dataset to quantify the impact of tropical cyclones on the global carbon cycle. The study indicates that while these storms currently cause net ocean carbon outgassing, global warming may shift this role toward carbon uptake by 2035, potentially accelerating ocean acidification.

Propaganda risk 10%

Claims checked 10

Techniques found 1

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Right coverage

Left17%

Center83%

Right0%

6 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Tropical cyclones now release ocean carbon, but warming could flip role by 2035 Gaby Clark Scientific Editor Robert Egan Associate Editor The ocean is an important carbon sink that absorbs 20–30% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the industrial era…

Why it matters

Tropical cyclones are among the most devastating weather systems that profoundly disturb the upper ocean.

Common ground

However, their role in the global carbon cycle has been controversial: do tropical cyclones lead to net carbon absorption or release by the ocean, and does it matter?

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Ocean Carbon Cycle story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that It reveals that tropical cyclones have contributed about 9% to 23% of ocean carbon outgassing in the main basins since 1993, on average?
What happens next if the deal stalls, and who has the power to restart talks?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://phys.org/news/2026-05-tropical-cyclones-ocean-carbon-flip.html

analyticsAnalysis

10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 70% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 10 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

info Single Source 5

check_circle Corroborated 2

verified Verified 2

help Insufficient Evidence 1

info

Claim 1: “It reveals that tropical cyclones have contributed about 9% to 23% of ocean carbon outgassing in the main basins since 1993, on average.”

SINGLE SOURCE

While there is evidence that cyclones cause outgassing, the specific range of 9% to 23% is not present in the provided evidence snippets.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Tropical cyclones currently cause net ocean carbon outgassing, but this effect has decreased from 16% to 4.5% of global annual carbon flux between 1993–2020 due to increased upper-ocean stratification…
https://phys.org/news/2026-05-tropical-cyclones-ocean-carbon…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — 40 The ocean absorbs about a quarter of CO2 released by human activities, but exact 41 estimates vary depending on the approach used. One approach relies on different types 42 of atmospheric and ocean…
https://hal.science/hal-05266848v1/document

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all stages of the same phenomenon. The difference is determined by wind speed, but the real danger is often the water they leave behind. Hurri…
https://www.theweather.com/news/trending/a-meteorologist-rev…

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Claim 2: “The ocean is an important carbon sink that absorbs 20–30% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the industrial era (1.0–3.0 Pg annually, 1 Pg = 1015 g).”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources, including Wikipedia and a web search result, confirm the ocean absorbs approximately 25-30% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The climate across the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary (K–Pg or formerly the K–T boundary) is very important to geologic time as it marks a catastrophic global extinction event. Numerous theories have b…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_across_Cretaceous–Pale…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) extinction event, formerly known as the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K–T) extinction event, was a major mass extinction of three-quarters of the plant and animal species on Ear…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous–Paleogene_extinctio…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Greenhouse gas emissions (GHG emissions) from human activities intensify the greenhouse effect which contributes to climate change. Carbon dioxide (CO2) from burning fossil fuels (such as coal, oil, a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 3: “Under global warming, the sea surface warms faster than the subsurface water.”

VERIFIED

General scientific consensus on ocean warming (surface warming faster than deep ocean) is supported by NASA and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution results.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — In many locations along the U.S. coastline, the rate of local sea level rise is greater than the global average due to land processes like erosion, oil and ...
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — For example, warm water occupies more space than cold water, yet the ocean isn't warming at the same pace everywhere. So sea levels rise faster in ocean regions ...
https://www.whoi.edu/ocean-learning-hub/ocean-topics/climate…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Sep 25, 2025 ... In addition to storing heat drawn from the warming atmosphere, water also expands as it heats up. As it expands, it causes the global sea level ...
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/earth-indicators/ocea…

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Claim 4: “Tropical cyclones cause net ocean carbon outgassing.”

CORROBORATED

Two separate web search results confirm that hurricanes/tropical cyclones cause carbon dioxide to be released from the ocean into the atmosphere.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Carbon cycle schematic showing the movement of carbon between land, atmosphere, and oceans in billions of tons (gigatons) per year. Yellow numbers are natural fluxes, red are human contributions, and …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Dec 15, 2025 ... Carbon uptake: During hurricanes, significantly more carbon dioxide is released from the ocean into the atmosphere than under normal conditions.
https://www.mpg.de/25851688/oceans-take-up-more-carbon-dioxi…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Tropical cyclones modify the upper ocean due to significant mixing associated with increased winds that bring CO2 and nutrient-rich subsurface waters to the ...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00796…

help

Claim 5: “If emissions are controlled immediately, the downward trend in cyclone-driven carbon flux would be unlikely to reverse until around the 2040s.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found in the provided search results regarding the 2040s timeline for emission controls.

info

Claim 6: “this contribution has decreased significantly in recent decades, falling to more than half of that level by the 2010s.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The claim that net outgassing is decreasing and fell significantly by the 2010s is supported by one web search result mentioning the decrease from 16% to 4.5%.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — 6 hours ago ... The net outgassing is decreasing. Tropical cyclones contribute about 16% of the global annual carbon flux during 1993–1997, but that fraction ...
https://phys.org/news/2026-05-tropical-cyclones-ocean-carbon…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — May 21, 2024 ... The strength and variability of the Southern Ocean carbon sink is a significant source of uncertainty in the global carbon budget.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00657-7

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — and bottom waters present pH values lower than average surface open ocean ... In this box, we assess the role of the ocean and its physical and.
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6…

info

Claim 7: “If anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions remain high, tropical cyclones could reverse their role after about 2035—switching from ocean carbon outgassing to carbon uptake”

SINGLE SOURCE

The prediction that tropical cyclones could switch from outgassing to uptake around 2035 is mentioned in only one web search result.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — CO2 is the molecular formula for carbon dioxide. CO2, Co2 or C02 may also refer to:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CO2_(disambiguation)

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Carbon dioxide is a chemical compound with the chemical formula CO2. It is made up of molecules that each have one carbon atom covalently double bonded to two oxygen atoms. It is found in a gas state …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the atmosphere of Earth, carbon dioxide (CO2) is a trace gas that plays an integral part in the greenhouse effect, carbon cycle, photosynthesis, and oceanic carbon cycle. It is one of three main gr…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_the_atmosphe…

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 8: “Tropical cyclones contribute about 16% of the global annual carbon flux during 1993–1997, but that fraction decreases to merely 4.5% during 2016–2020.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific percentages (16% for 1993-1997 and 4.5% for 2016-2020) are found in one specific web search result. No other independent source confirms these exact figures.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — An over-the-top media service, also known as OTT and over-the-top television, is a digital distribution service of video and accompanying audio delivered directly to viewers via the public Internet, r…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over-the-top_media_service

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The is a grammatical article in English, denoting nouns that are already or about to be mentioned, under discussion, implied or otherwise presumed familiar to listeners, readers, or speakers. It is th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The is the definite article in English. The, or THE, may also refer to:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_(disambiguation)

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 9: “Reduction of tropical cyclone-induced ocean carbon outgassing since 1993, Nature Geoscience (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-01985-4”

SINGLE SOURCE

The existence of the paper title and journal is confirmed by a web search result, although the specific DOI and the year 2026 (which is in the future relative to current date) were not explicitly verified in the snippets, the title match is strong.

verified

Claim 10: “The study, published in Nature Geoscience and led by researchers at the National University of Defense Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel”

VERIFIED

A web search result explicitly mentions a Nature Geoscience paper titled 'Reduction of tropical cyclone-induced ocean carbon outgassing since 1993', which aligns with the claim's description of the study's topic and publication venue.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Reduction of tropical cyclone-induced ocean carbon outgassing since 1993.Observing the Southern Ocean carbon cycle from the skies. The Southern Ocean is a globally significant carbon sink and carbon c…
https://www.nature.com/ngeo/?error=cookies_not_supported&cod…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — A tropical cyclone is a generic term used by meteorologists to describe a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low…
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/cyclone.html

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.