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Tropical cyclones now release ocean carbon, but warming could flip role by 2035

Phys · · 657 words · By Chinese Academy
Ocean Carbon Cycle climate_change Environmental Policy

An international research team has developed a dataset to quantify the impact of tropical cyclones on the global carbon cycle. The study indicates that while these storms currently cause net ocean carbon outgassing, global warming may shift this role toward carbon uptake by 2035, potentially accelerating ocean acidification.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://phys.org/news/2026-05-tropical-cyclones-ocean-carbon-flip.html

analyticsAnalysis

10%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 95%
Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

psychologyDetected Techniques

warning
Loaded Language 70% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

10 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

info Single Source 5
check_circle Corroborated 2
verified Verified 2
help Insufficient Evidence 1
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“The ocean is an important carbon sink that absorbs 20–30% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the industrial era (1.0–3.0 Pg annually, 1 Pg = 1015 g).”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources, including Wikipedia and a web search result, confirm the ocean absorbs approximately 25-30% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The climate across the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary (K–Pg or formerly the K–T boundary) is very important to geologic time as it marks a catastrophic global extinction event. Numerous theories have b…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_across_Cretaceous–Pale…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) extinction event, formerly known as the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K–T) extinction event, was a major mass extinction of three-quarters of the plant and animal species on Ear…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous–Paleogene_extinctio…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Greenhouse gas emissions (GHG emissions) from human activities intensify the greenhouse effect which contributes to climate change. Carbon dioxide (CO2) from burning fossil fuels (such as coal, oil, a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Tropical cyclones cause net ocean carbon outgassing.”
CORROBORATED
Two separate web search results confirm that hurricanes/tropical cyclones cause carbon dioxide to be released from the ocean into the atmosphere.
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web search NEUTRAL — Carbon cycle schematic showing the movement of carbon between land, atmosphere, and oceans in billions of tons (gigatons) per year. Yellow numbers are natural fluxes, red are human contributions, and …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle
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web search NEUTRAL — Dec 15, 2025 ... Carbon uptake: During hurricanes, significantly more carbon dioxide is released from the ocean into the atmosphere than under normal conditions.
https://www.mpg.de/25851688/oceans-take-up-more-carbon-dioxi…
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web search NEUTRAL — Tropical cyclones modify the upper ocean due to significant mixing associated with increased winds that bring CO2 and nutrient-rich subsurface waters to the ...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00796…
info
“Tropical cyclones contribute about 16% of the global annual carbon flux during 1993–1997, but that fraction decreases to merely 4.5% during 2016–2020.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The specific percentages (16% for 1993-1997 and 4.5% for 2016-2020) are found in one specific web search result. No other independent source confirms these exact figures.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — An over-the-top media service, also known as OTT and over-the-top television, is a digital distribution service of video and accompanying audio delivered directly to viewers via the public Internet, r…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over-the-top_media_service
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The is a grammatical article in English, denoting nouns that are already or about to be mentioned, under discussion, implied or otherwise presumed familiar to listeners, readers, or speakers. It is th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The is the definite article in English. The, or THE, may also refer to:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_(disambiguation)
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
“If anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions remain high, tropical cyclones could reverse their role after about 2035—switching from ocean carbon outgassing to carbon uptake”
SINGLE SOURCE
The prediction that tropical cyclones could switch from outgassing to uptake around 2035 is mentioned in only one web search result.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — CO2 is the molecular formula for carbon dioxide. CO2, Co2 or C02 may also refer to:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CO2_(disambiguation)
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Carbon dioxide is a chemical compound with the chemical formula CO2. It is made up of molecules that each have one carbon atom covalently double bonded to two oxygen atoms. It is found in a gas state …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In the atmosphere of Earth, carbon dioxide (CO2) is a trace gas that plays an integral part in the greenhouse effect, carbon cycle, photosynthesis, and oceanic carbon cycle. It is one of three main gr…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_the_atmosphe…
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
“The study, published in Nature Geoscience and led by researchers at the National University of Defense Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel”
VERIFIED
A web search result explicitly mentions a Nature Geoscience paper titled 'Reduction of tropical cyclone-induced ocean carbon outgassing since 1993', which aligns with the claim's description of the study's topic and publication venue.
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web search NEUTRAL — Tropical cyclones currently cause net ocean carbon outgassing, but this effect has decreased from 16% to 4.5% of global annual carbon flux between 1993–2020 due to increased upper-ocean stratification…
https://phys.org/news/2026-05-tropical-cyclones-ocean-carbon…
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web search NEUTRAL — Reduction of tropical cyclone-induced ocean carbon outgassing since 1993.Observing the Southern Ocean carbon cycle from the skies. The Southern Ocean is a globally significant carbon sink and carbon c…
https://www.nature.com/ngeo/?error=cookies_not_supported&cod…
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web search NEUTRAL — A tropical cyclone is a generic term used by meteorologists to describe a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low…
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/cyclone.html
info
“It reveals that tropical cyclones have contributed about 9% to 23% of ocean carbon outgassing in the main basins since 1993, on average.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While there is evidence that cyclones cause outgassing, the specific range of 9% to 23% is not present in the provided evidence snippets.
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web search NEUTRAL — Tropical cyclones currently cause net ocean carbon outgassing, but this effect has decreased from 16% to 4.5% of global annual carbon flux between 1993–2020 due to increased upper-ocean stratification…
https://phys.org/news/2026-05-tropical-cyclones-ocean-carbon…
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web search NEUTRAL — 40 The ocean absorbs about a quarter of CO2 released by human activities, but exact 41 estimates vary depending on the approach used. One approach relies on different types 42 of atmospheric and ocean…
https://hal.science/hal-05266848v1/document
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web search NEUTRAL — Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all stages of the same phenomenon. The difference is determined by wind speed, but the real danger is often the water they leave behind. Hurri…
https://www.theweather.com/news/trending/a-meteorologist-rev…
info
“this contribution has decreased significantly in recent decades, falling to more than half of that level by the 2010s.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The claim that net outgassing is decreasing and fell significantly by the 2010s is supported by one web search result mentioning the decrease from 16% to 4.5%.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — 6 hours ago ... The net outgassing is decreasing. Tropical cyclones contribute about 16% of the global annual carbon flux during 1993–1997, but that fraction ...
https://phys.org/news/2026-05-tropical-cyclones-ocean-carbon…
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web search NEUTRAL — May 21, 2024 ... The strength and variability of the Southern Ocean carbon sink is a significant source of uncertainty in the global carbon budget.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00657-7
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web search NEUTRAL — and bottom waters present pH values lower than average surface open ocean ... In this box, we assess the role of the ocean and its physical and.
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6…
verified
“Under global warming, the sea surface warms faster than the subsurface water.”
VERIFIED
General scientific consensus on ocean warming (surface warming faster than deep ocean) is supported by NASA and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution results.
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web search NEUTRAL — In many locations along the U.S. coastline, the rate of local sea level rise is greater than the global average due to land processes like erosion, oil and ...
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/…
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web search NEUTRAL — For example, warm water occupies more space than cold water, yet the ocean isn't warming at the same pace everywhere. So sea levels rise faster in ocean regions ...
https://www.whoi.edu/ocean-learning-hub/ocean-topics/climate…
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web search NEUTRAL — Sep 25, 2025 ... In addition to storing heat drawn from the warming atmosphere, water also expands as it heats up. As it expands, it causes the global sea level ...
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/earth-indicators/ocea…
help
“If emissions are controlled immediately, the downward trend in cyclone-driven carbon flux would be unlikely to reverse until around the 2040s.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results regarding the 2040s timeline for emission controls.
info
“Reduction of tropical cyclone-induced ocean carbon outgassing since 1993, Nature Geoscience (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-01985-4”
SINGLE SOURCE
The existence of the paper title and journal is confirmed by a web search result, although the specific DOI and the year 2026 (which is in the future relative to current date) were not explicitly verified in the snippets, the title match is strong.
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.