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The U.S. inflation problem is getting worse

Axios · · 447 words · By Neil Irwin
Inflation and Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Leadership
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.axios.com/2026/05/13/ppi-iran-inflation

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Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

8 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

check_circle Corroborated 5
info Single Source 2
verified Verified 1
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“The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.4% in April alone”
CORROBORATED
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) news release and InvestingLive both report that the PPI for final demand increased 1.4% in April.
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web search NEUTRAL — Producer Price Index Relative Importance for commodities.The Producer Price Index (PPI) is the official measure of producer prices in the economy of the United States. It measures average changes in p…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Producer_Price_Index
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web search NEUTRAL — The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in March and…
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_05132026.htm
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web search NEUTRAL — PPI ex food, energy and trade YoY 4.4% vs 3.7% last month. Services inflation was up 2.5%. The two year yield has moved above the 4% level to 4.010% 1.5 basis points.
https://investinglive.com/news/us-ppi-final-demand-for-april…
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“and is up 6% over the last 12 months.”
SINGLE SOURCE
Only one search result ('Producer Price Index shows Iran war's alarming economic fallout') explicitly states the PPI is up 6% over the last 12 months. Other sources discuss the monthly change or core figures but not this specific 6% headline annual figure.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Producer Price Index (PPI) is the official measure of producer prices in the economy of the United States. It measures average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output. Th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Producer_Price_Index
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web search NEUTRAL — The PPI for final demand rose 1.4% in April alone, and is up 6% over the last 12 months.A line chart that tracks year-over-year producer price index changes from April 2016 to April 2026 for overall f…
https://www.axios.com/2026/05/13/ppi-iran-inflation
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web search NEUTRAL — The Producer Price Index (PPI) program measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.PPI for final demand components, 1-month percent chan…
https://www.bls.gov/ppi/
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“Even excluding volatile food, energy and trade services, the index was up a whopping 4.4% over the last year”
CORROBORATED
Both the BLS news release summary and the 'Trump Dismisses Inflation' article confirm that the core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services) rose 4.4% year-over-year.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Producer Price Index (PPI) program measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The prices included in the PPI are from the first co…
https://www.bls.gov/pPI/
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web search NEUTRAL — prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 4.4 percent, the largest 12-month increase since jumping 4.5 percent in February 2023. Final Demand Final demand services: The i…
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
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web search NEUTRAL — Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity: Final Demand: Final Demand Less Foods and Energy (PPICOR) from Apr 2010 to Mar 2026 about final demand, core, PPI, inflation, pr…
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PPICOR/
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“the highest 12-month increase since 2023.”
CORROBORATED
The BLS news release and the 'Trump Dismisses Inflation' article both state that the 4.4% increase is the highest 12-month increase since February 2023.
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web search NEUTRAL — Core PPI up-revisions: The month-to-month increase of the “core” PPI for January was revised up by 23 basis points, to +0.51% (+6.3% annualized), the biggest increase since June 2024, from the previou…
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/03/13/its-again-the-hefty-up-rev…
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web search NEUTRAL — Core PPI, which strips out foods, energy, and trade services, rose 0.6% for the month and 4.4% year-over-year. That annual core reading is the highest since February 2023.
https://news.bitcoin.com/trump-dismisses-inflation-pressure-…
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web search NEUTRAL — Year-over-year data are not seasonally adjusted since they cover 12 months and wash out any seasonal effects. Not seasonally adjusted, the January core PPI jumped by 0.49% (not annualized). But the Ja…
https://energynewsbeat.co/ppi-inflation-accelerates-to-3-5-y…
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“Prices for services were up significantly, thanks to a 5% rise in transportation and warehousing prices”
VERIFIED
Bloomberg reports specifically that prices for transportation and warehousing services jumped 5%, driven by trucking and fuel retailers.
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web search NEUTRAL — Prices for transportation and warehousing services — a category forecasters had flagged as especially sensitive to the conflict — jumped 5%, driven by trucking and higher margins at fuel retailers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-13/us-produc…
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web search NEUTRAL — Transportation and warehousing prices both rose in January.
https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/02/13/transportation-…
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web search NEUTRAL — Transportation and warehousing of goods for manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and they are up 10.1 percent. The intermediate demand indexes get even more granular, opening a view into how prices are flow…
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2021/10/14/shipping-and-wa…
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“As Kevin Warsh prepares to take charge of the Fed”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources, including a nomination announcement and a profile piece, confirm Kevin Warsh has been nominated/selected to serve as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.
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web search NEUTRAL — Kevin Maxwell Warsh (born April 13, 1970) is an American financier and attorney who served as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Warsh
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web search NEUTRAL — Having known Kevin Warsh for decades, he’s uniquely prepared — in judgment, experience, and temperament — to serve our country at this critical time.” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise: “Kevin Warsh…
https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/01/wide-acclaim-for…
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web search NEUTRAL — When Kevin Warsh won the race become chair of the Student Senate at Stanford University in 1991, he vowed that he would not be "manipulated by political parties.”What does the Chair of the Federal Res…
https://www.almanacnews.com/stanford-university/2026/02/04/f…
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“Boston Fed president Susan Collins said Wednesday morning at the Economic Club of Boston”
CORROBORATED
Forex Factory and other sources confirm Susan Collins, President of the Boston Fed, delivered remarks at the Boston Economic Club on Wednesday.
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web search NEUTRAL — Remarks by Susan M. Collins at the Boston Economic Club.The US Senate is expected to confirm Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chairman on Wednesday, as President Donald Trump applies unprecedented press…
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1398207-collins-the-us-eco…
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web search NEUTRAL — Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins delivers remarks and participates in fireside chat before the Boston Economic Club.
https://www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/693009
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web search NEUTRAL — Get the Fed Collins Speaks results in real time as they're announced and see the immediate global market impact.Dollar pushes higher; Fed speakers in focus. Investing.com - The U.S. dollar edged highe…
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/fed-collins-spea…
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“The CME FedWatch tool, based on futures prices, now implies 34% odds that the Fed's target rate will end this year higher than it is now, versus 16% odds a week ago.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While the CME FedWatch tool is a real tool used for these probabilities, the provided evidence does not contain the specific percentages (34% vs 16%) mentioned in the claim.
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web search NEUTRAL — US Treasury interest rates compared to Federal Funds Rate. The Federal Funds Rate pushes up shorter term treasuries to cause an inverted yield curve when the Federal Reserve wants to tame demand and i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate
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web search NEUTRAL — What is the likelihood that the Fed will change the Federal target rate at upcoming FOMC meetings, according to interest rate traders? Use CME FedWatch to track the probabilities of changes to the Fed…
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch…
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web search NEUTRAL — The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a strong likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates through September. According to ChainCatcher, the probability of rates remain…
https://www.binance.bh/en/square/post/05-04-2026-cme-fedwatc…
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.