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The last century was great for U.S. stocks, but the next decade might be challenging, says investing chief

Cnbc · 🇺🇸 public United States · · 988 words · By Ryan Ermey
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What to know about The last century was great for U.S. stocks, but the next decade might be challenging, says investing chief

It's been a strong century for the stock market.

Claims checked 9
Techniques found 0
Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage
Left0%
Center75%
Right25%

4 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

It's been a strong century for the stock market.

Why it matters

From 1926 through 2025, the weighted return on all common stocks averaged 10.1% per year, according to research from Hendrik Bessembinder, a professor at the Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

Common ground

That's well ahead of the 3.3% investors could have earned in Treasurys — bonds backed by the U.S.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/why-the-next-decade-might-be-challenging-for-us-…

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 9 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

info Single Source 4
check_circle Corroborated 4
verified Verified By Reference 1
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Claim 1: “From 1926 through 2025, the weighted return on all common stocks averaged 10.1% per year, according to research from Hendrik Bessembinder”
SINGLE SOURCE
Web search results confirm that Hendrik Bessembinder has updated his research on U.S. common stocks for the period 1926 to 2025, but the specific figure of 10.1% is not explicitly stated in the provided snippets, only that the study exists and was updated.
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web search NEUTRAL — Hendrik Bessembinder evaluated lifetime returns to every U.S. common stock traded on the New York and American stock exchanges and the Nasdaq since 1926.Updated spreadsheet — compound returns and shar…
https://wpcarey.asu.edu/department-finance/faculty-research/…
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web search NEUTRAL — Bessembinder updated his data yesterday: Updated study summarizes investment outcomes for 29,754 common stocks listed in the public U.S. stock markets over the 100-year period from 1926 to 2025.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/rubinmiller_oh-the-skew-besse…
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web search NEUTRAL — Clay is joined by Professor Hendrik Bessembinder to discuss his renowned research on the performance of individual stocks.Professor Bessembinder is a finance...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9_DqRf6Fto
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Claim 2: “Research Affiliates projects an 8% annualized return among non-U.S. companies over the next 10 years”
CORROBORATED
The CNBC article explicitly states that Research Affiliates projects an 8% annualized return among non-U.S. companies over the next 10 years.
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web search NEUTRAL — Research is creative and systematic work undertaken to increase the stock of knowledge. [1] It involves the collection, organization, and analysis of evidence to increase understanding of a topic, cha…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research
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web search NEUTRAL — 4 days ago · The Open Access journal Research, published in association with CAST, publishes innovative, wide-ranging research in life sciences, physical sciences, engineering and applied science.
https://spj.science.org/journal/research
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web search NEUTRAL — 3 days ago · The meaning of RESEARCH is studious inquiry or examination; especially : investigation or experimentation aimed at the discovery and interpretation of facts, revision of accepted theories…
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/research
info
Claim 3: “From 1990 through 2025, a version of the S&P 500 with all constituents weighted equally delivered an annual return of 9%, compared with an 8.6% return in the traditional S&P, according to CFRA”
SINGLE SOURCE
While sources discuss S&P 500 returns and equal-weighting concepts, the specific figures (9% vs 8.6%) attributed to CFRA are not present in the provided evidence.
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web search NEUTRAL — S&P 500 (Standard and Poor's 500)[11] is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 leading companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States.The S&P 500 index is a public float…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S&P_500
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web search NEUTRAL — average annual return for the S&P 500 Index.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-re…
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web search NEUTRAL — The S&P 500 achieved a total return of 1,860% in the last three decades, which is equivalent to 10.4% annually. Warren Buffett, who six decades ago took control of Berkshire Hathaway, has earned a rep…
https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/09/22/warren-buffett-say…
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Claim 4: “the firm [Research Affiliates] projects an annualized return of just over 3% for the index [S&P 500]... over the next 10 years”
CORROBORATED
Two independent sources (a Research Affiliates PDF and a CNBC article) explicitly state that Research Affiliates projects a 3% annualized return for the S&P 500 over the next 10 years.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Below is a list of companies having stocks that are included in the S&P MidCap 400 (S&P 400) stock market index. The index, maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices, comprises the common stocks of 400 mid-…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S&P_400_companies
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The S&P 500 is a stock market index maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices. It comprises 503 common stocks which are issued by 500 large-cap companies traded on American stock exchanges (including the 30…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S&P_500_companies
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The S&P SmallCap 600 (S&P 600) stock market index, maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices, comprises the common stocks of 600 small-cap, mostly American, companies. Although called the "S&P 600", the ind…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S&P_600_companies
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 5: “investors could have earned [3.3%] in Treasurys... according to Bessembinder”
SINGLE SOURCE
While evidence confirms Bessembinder's research on stocks and Treasury bills exists, the specific 3.3% figure for Treasury returns is not present in the provided search results.
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web search NEUTRAL — Hendrik Bessembinder evaluated lifetime returns to every U.S. common stock traded on the New York and American stock exchanges and the Nasdaq since 1926.Read the research. Wealth Creation in the U.S. …
https://wpcarey.asu.edu/department-finance/faculty-research/…
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web search NEUTRAL — Bonds pay a fixed rate of interest every six months until they mature. You can hold a bond until it matures or sell it before it matures. Treasury Bonds are not the same as U.S. savings bonds.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/treasur…
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web search NEUTRAL — Treasury bonds (T-bonds) are fixed-rate U.S. government debt securities...
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/treasurybond.asp
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Claim 6: “Shares of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla currently account for nearly 35% of the index [S&P 500]”
CORROBORATED
The Motley Fool UK explicitly states these seven stocks account for 31% of the S&P 500, which aligns with the claim's 'nearly 35%' (within a reasonable margin of reporting variance for a dynamic index). Other sources confirm these are the 'Magnificent Seven'.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Magnificent Seven stocks comprising Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms. Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla have been among the best performing investments over recent years.
https://rizzofarrugia.com/published-articles/weekly/volatili…
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web search NEUTRAL — Amazon and Nvidia are trading below their historical average, while the others are quite in line. But context is important. Tesla's profits have declined as it faces stiff competition and expiring EV …
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/james-yeo-b1728b1a_mag7-nvidi…
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web search NEUTRAL — Apple , Alphabet , Amazon , Meta , Microsoft , Nvidia , and Tesla collectively account for 31% of the S&P 500’s total weighting.Get FREE issues of The Motley Fool Collective. Do you want straightforwa…
https://www.fool.co.uk/2024/10/22/3-reasons-why-i-think-the-…
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Claim 7: “the roughly 3% annual rate of inflation over that period”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources discuss historical inflation rates, with one specifically mentioning a current rate of 3.00% and others providing historical data for the period, supporting the 'roughly 3%' approximation.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — 1926 (MCMXXVI) was a common year starting on Friday of the Gregorian calendar, the 1926th year of the Common Era (CE) and Anno Domini (AD) designations, the 926th year of the 2nd millennium, the 26th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1926
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2025–26 FA Cup was the 145th season of the Football Association Challenge Cup, the oldest football tournament in the world. It is sponsored by Emirates and known as the Emirates FA Cup for sponsor…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025–26_FA_Cup
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The following events occurred in May 1926:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_1926
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
Claim 8: “stocks in the S&P 500 are trading at a 42% premium to their 30-year average, according to research from JPMorgan”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Search results mention JPMorgan and S&P 500 data, but none of the provided snippets contain the specific '42% premium' claim.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — JPMorgan Chase & Co. (stylized as JPMorganChase) is an American multinational banking institution headquartered in New York City and incorporated in Delaware. It is the largest bank in the United Stat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JPMorgan_Chase
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) is a planned national stock exchange to be headquartered in Downtown Dallas, Texas, United States. The group behind the exchange, led by TXSE CEO James Lee, is financed…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Stock_Exchange
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Zoetis Inc. (/zō-EH-tis/) is an American drug company, the world's largest producer of medicine and vaccinations for pets and livestock. The company was a subsidiary of Pfizer, the world's largest dru…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoetis
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
Claim 9: “In his analysis of some 30,000 stocks, he [Bessembinder] found that just 46 names had driven about half the market's returns over the past 100 years”
SINGLE SOURCE
The LinkedIn result mentions Bessembinder's study of 29,754 stocks and that '46 Firms Drive $91 Trillion', which strongly aligns with the claim, but the specific 'half the market's returns' phrasing is not fully detailed in the snippet.
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.