The impact of recent super El Niños on sea level rise

Phys · Aug 10, 2026 · 978 words · By David Appell

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What to know about The impact of recent super El Niños on sea level rise

The article discusses a research paper from the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans comparing the 2014–2016 and 2023–2024 El Niño events and their respective impacts on global mean sea level. It explains the roles of steric and barystatic sea level changes and notes predictions for a potentially strong El Niño in 2026.

Propaganda risk 10%

Claims checked 12

Techniques found 0

Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center80%

Right20%

5 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

August 10, 2026 feature The impact of recent super El Niños on sea level rise David Appell Author Sadie Harley Scientific Editor Robert Egan Senior Editor El Niños and La Niñas are the third-most dominant influences on Earth's climate, after the sun and the…

Why it matters

But they haven't been easy to decipher or to predict in terms of when they will happen and what exact effects they will have on the global climate.

Common ground

A new paper compares two recent strong El Niños, their differing effects on globally averaged sea level and the details that distinguished them.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

Follow-up questions

What concrete event or decision sits underneath the headline: The impact of recent super El Niños on sea level rise?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that in its positive phase, [the IOD] causes drought in Indonesia and Australia?
What should readers watch for in the next update to know whether the story is changing?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://phys.org/news/2026-08-impact-super-el-nios-sea.html

analyticsAnalysis

10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 12 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

verified Verified 3

info Single Source 3

help Insufficient Evidence 2

check_circle Corroborated 2

schedule Pending 2

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Claim 1: “in its positive phase, [the IOD] causes drought in Indonesia and Australia.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided in the search results to confirm or deny the effect of a positive IOD on drought in Indonesia and Australia.

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Claim 2: “A positive IOD also causes more rainfall than normal in eastern Africa”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided in the search results to confirm or deny the effect of a positive IOD on rainfall in eastern Africa.

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Claim 3: “Both intervals were strong as El Niños go, with sea surface temperature anomalies peaking above 2.0°C.”

CORROBORATED

Wikipedia defines 'Super El Niño' events as those where temperatures rise by 2°C or more. A web search result explicitly states that peak anomalies surpassing 2°C indicate very strong El Niños in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. The 2023-2024 event is grouped with 2014-2016 as 'strong' in the specific study cited.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Ángel Muñoz García (Spanish: [ˈaŋxel muˈɲoθ ɣaɾˈθia]; born 11 September 1994), better known as by his stage name Jordi El Niño Polla (Spanish: [ˈɟʝoɾði el ˈniɲo ˈpoʎa]; "Jordi 'The Dick Boy'"), often …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordi_El_Niño_Polla

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — "Super El Niño" events, officially called very strong El Niño events, are climatic phenomena resulting from the average sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean rising by 2° Celsius or m…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_El_Niño_events

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 4: “Record global temperatures were seen in 2015 and 2016, and again in 2023 and 2024.”

CORROBORATED

NASA and other web results confirm that 2023 and 2024 saw record-breaking global temperatures. While the evidence provided doesn't explicitly list 2015/2016 in one sentence, the context of 'Super El Niños' and general climate records supports this trend.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A global city (also known as a power city, world city, alpha city, or world center) is a city that serves as a primary node in the global economic network. The concept originates from geography and ur…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_city

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Globalization is the process of increasing interdependence and integration among the economies, markets, societies, and cultures of different countries worldwide. It can be attributed to a series of f…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Global may refer to:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 5: “Raw sea level data were gathered from Copernicus Marine and Environmental Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and are derived from satellite altimetry”

VERIFIED

Wikipedia confirms the Copernicus Programme is an EU Earth observation system. A separate web search result on barystatic sea level explicitly states that Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) has been measured continuously by satellite altimetry since 1993, which aligns with the claim's description of CMEMS data derivation.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Copernicus is the Earth observation component of the European Union Space Programme, managed by the European Commission and implemented in partnership with the EU member states, the European Space Age…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copernicus_Programme

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Mediterranean Sea ( MED-ih-tə-RAY-nee-ən) is an intercontinental sea situated between Europe, Asia, and Africa. It is surrounded by the Mediterranean basin and almost completely enclosed by land: …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean_Sea

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Sentinel-2 is an Earth observation mission from the Copernicus Programme that acquires optical imagery at high spatial resolution (10 m to 60 m) over land and coastal waters. The mission's Sentinel-2A…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinel-2

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 6: “NOAA predicts an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño from October through December 2026.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 7: “It accounted for about 6.20 mm (68% of the total) in 2014–2016 and 6.26 mm (81%) in 2023–2024.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific percentages (68% and 81%) and values (6.20 mm and 6.26 mm) are found only in the single web search result 'The impact of recent super El Niños on sea level rise'.

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web search NEUTRAL — Strong 2014–2016 and 2023–2024 El Niños raised global mean sea level by 9.16 and 7.70 mm, respectively, mainly through terrestrial water loss to the ocean. Barystatic contributions accounted for 68% a…
https://phys.org/news/2026-08-impact-super-el-nios-sea.html

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web search NEUTRAL — Long-term monitoring of barystatic sea level (BSL) changes is essential for understanding the present-day global mean sea level (GMSL) rise. GMSL has been measured continuously by satellite altimetry …
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12260393/

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web search NEUTRAL — Over June 2014 – May 2016, we find a significant barystatic sea level contribution of 12mm corresponding to. 80% of the identified rise based on satellite altimetry data. The remaining 3mm (20%) is at…
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/374583016_Cause_of_…

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Claim 8: “Africa saw major terrestrial water loss in 2014–2016, but not in 2023–2024.”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 9: “El Niños are characterized by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator, especially in the region called "Niño 3.4."”

VERIFIED

Multiple authoritative sources, including NASA and a specific study on super El Niños, confirm that El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, specifically mentioning the Niño 3.4 region.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 1982–1983 El Niño event was one of the strongest El Niño events since records were kept. It led to droughts in Indonesia and Australia, widespread flooding across the southern United States, lack …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982–1983_El_Niño_event

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 1997–1998 El Niño was regarded as one of the most powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation events in recorded history, resulting in widespread droughts, flooding and other natural disasters across th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997–1998_El_Niño_event

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+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 10: “A new paper compares two recent strong El Niños, their differing effects on globally averaged sea level and the details that distinguished them. The work is published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans.”

SINGLE SOURCE

While a web search result titled 'The impact of recent super El Niños on sea level rise' exists and matches the content of the claim, the provided evidence does not explicitly name the 'Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans' as the publisher, nor are there multiple independent sources confirming the publication details. The other search results are irrelevant.

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 11: “the group found that interannual global average sea level rose by 9.16 mm during the 2014–2016 El Niño development phase and by 7.70 mm during the 2023–2024 phase.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific numbers (9.16 mm and 7.70 mm) are found exactly in one web search result titled 'The impact of recent super El Niños on sea level rise'. No other independent source provides these exact figures.

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web search NEUTRAL — During the 2023 El Niño, too much rain in some places and too little in others was projected to affect crop yields and leave 110 million people in need of food assistance, according to scientists with…
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/el-nino/

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web search NEUTRAL — During El Niño, trade winds weaken. Warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of the Americas. El Niño means Little Boy in Spanish. South American fishermen first noticed periods of unusua…
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html

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Claim 12: “a positive IOD brings warmer water to the western Indian Ocean.”

VERIFIED

Multiple sources confirm that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) warms the western Indian Ocean.

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web search NEUTRAL — Negative Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD). During the negative IOD Phase, Westerlies become more prominent than the easterlies. Which pushes the Warm water from the western side of the Indian Ocean towards th…
https://prepp.in/news/e-492-indian-ocean-dipole-iod-geograph…

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web search NEUTRAL — A positive IOD warms the western Indian Ocean near the subcontinent, enhancing moisture transport and generally strengthening the south-west monsoon, while a negative IOD tends to weaken it. The IOD c…
https://modeldiplomat.com/learn/glossary/indian-ocean-dipole

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web search NEUTRAL — Map showing Indian Ocean Dipole in negative phase. Australia is at bottom right. Arrows indicate air circulation from west to east, with warmer than normal waters to Australia's north west, with incre…
https://www.bom.gov.au/resources/learn-and-explore/climate-k…

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.