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The Great Decoupling — why global markets are shrugging off war and fear

Daily Maverick · · 1118 words · By Natale Labia
Geopolitical Instability US Political Leadership Market Volatility Asset Class Analysis

The article analyzes the performance of global equity markets in the first quarter of 2026, noting a recovery despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and US political instability. It attributes the market rally to falling interest rates, compelling valuations, and the performance of major tech stocks, while cautioning about remaining risks in oil and bond yields.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2026-04-21-the-great-decoupling-why-glob…

analyticsAnalysis

50%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 95%
Moderate concerns. Notable use of persuasive or loaded language.

psychologyDetected Techniques

warning
Loaded Language 90% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
warning
Name Calling / Labeling 80% confidence
Attaching a negative label to a person or group to reject them without evidence.
warning
Exaggeration / Hyperbole 70% confidence
Overstating facts or claims to create a stronger emotional response.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

16 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

schedule Pending 6
info Single Source 4
check_circle Corroborated 2
help Insufficient Evidence 2
cancel Disputed 1
verified Verified By Reference 1
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“A war in the Middle East that the International Energy Agency has dubbed the gravest threat to global energy security in history.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided web search results for this claim are generic dictionary definitions of the word 'international' and a truck company; they contain no information regarding the International Energy Agency or statements about energy security.
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web search NEUTRAL — International Look up International or international in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. International is an adjective (also used as a noun) meaning "between nations". International may also refer to:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International
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web search NEUTRAL — Discover the full range of trucks from International®. Driver-centric, durable and endlessly versatile. Explore medium-duty, heavy-duty, and severe-duty trucks and let’s get to work.
https://www.international.com/products/trucks
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web search NEUTRAL — 5 days ago · The meaning of INTERNATIONAL is of, relating to, or affecting two or more nations. How to use international in a sentence.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/international
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“American tariffs at their highest since the early 1940s.”
CORROBORATED
A source from BURSA.RO explicitly states that in 2025, the average US import tariff rose to 14.5%, the highest level since 1938, which aligns with the claim of being at the highest since the early 1940s.
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web search NEUTRAL — According to its preamble, its purpose was the "substantial reduction of tariffs and other trade barriers and the elimination of preferences, on a reciprocal and mutually advantageous basis".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Agreement_on_Tariffs_a…
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web search NEUTRAL — In 2025, the average US import tariff rose to 14.5% - the highest level in almost 90 years, more precisely since 1938, according to the analysis, which presents these averages throughout history, base…
https://www.bursa.ro/average-us-tariffs-at-highest-level-sin…
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web search NEUTRAL — He also wants to reduce the US trade deficit - the gap between the value of goods it buys from other countries and those it sells to them. The president argues that the US has been exploited by "cheat…
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn93e12rypgo
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“the benchmark US index the S&P 500 is up 4% thus far in 2026”
DISPUTED
TradingView reports a year-to-date increase of 6.67%, while other sources mention the index being expensive or having a bad year, creating a discrepancy with the specific 4% figure.
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web search NEUTRAL — Year to date6.67%.S&P 500 Index value has increased by 2.36% in the past week, since last month it has shown a 11.14% increase, and over the year it's increased by 30.69%. Keep track of all changes on…
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/SPX/
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web search NEUTRAL — S&P 500 had it’s seventh worst year, ever.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-re…
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web search NEUTRAL — The S&P 500 currently has a forward PE multiple of 22.7, a material premium to the five-year average of 19.9 and the 10-year average of 18.6, according to FactSet Research. The index has rarely been s…
https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/10/29/stock-market-do-so…
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“the decision of US President Donald Trump to bomb Tehran and decapitate the Islamic Republic alongside the eternally bellicose Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent sources (Al Jazeera, Jeremy Bowen/BBC, and other news reports) confirm that US President Donald Trump and Israel launched air strikes/combat operations in Tehran, including the killing of the Supreme Leader.
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web search NEUTRAL — Far from capitulating or collapsing after Israel and the US killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first air strike of the war, the regime in Tehran is functioning and fighting bac…
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y969pnxgvo
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web search NEUTRAL — The United States and Israel have struck multiple locations across Iran, including the capital, Tehran, in what US President Donald Trump described as “major combat operations”.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/us-and-israel-attac…
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web search NEUTRAL — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with President Donald Trump on Sunday evening, according to an Israeli official and an Israeli source familiar with the call, as Iran submitted its resp…
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/10/world/live-news/iran-war-…
verified
“Within days the Strait of Hormuz was blocked”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Wikipedia explicitly confirms that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been largely blocked by Iran since February 28, 2026, following US and Israeli air wars.
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web search NEUTRAL — Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major maritime choke point for world energy trade, has been largely blocked by Iran since 28 February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis
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web search NEUTRAL — Following the attacks on Iran by the USA and Israel, there are increasing indications that Tehran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is one of the most important bottlenecks in global energy…
https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/these-50-kilometers-could-now…
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web search NEUTRAL — The strait of Hormuz is one of the most important arteries for global trade.For years, Tehran has warned that it could shut the strait in retaliation against any military aggression, but it has stoppe…
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/01/us-israel-s…
info
“The S&P 500 fell almost 10% in a month.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence provided discusses general S&P 500 returns (Goldman Sachs) or a four-week decline without a specific percentage drop of 10% in a single month for 2026.
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web search NEUTRAL — The S&P 500’s rally on Monday was a much-needed reprieve for bulls who saw the index decline for four weeks in a row. Still, the benchmark gauge failed to reclaim its 200-day moving average, a technic…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/vix-signa…
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web search NEUTRAL — The S&P 500 Index of US stocks is forecast to have its third-straight year of gains amid solid economic expansion and steady earnings growth, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-s-and-p-5…
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web search NEUTRAL — This ongoing rebalancing helps the index remain reflective of the U.S. economy and market conditions. Historical Performance. Historically, the S&P 500 has returned around 10% annually, though this ca…
https://www.equiti.com/sc-en/news/market-insights/what-is-th…
info
“Any investor brave enough to have piled into equities at the end of March would have been more than 12% up in merely two weeks.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The search results for this claim provided only dictionary definitions of 'equity' and 'equity' as a financial term; no data on 2026 market returns was found.
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web search NEUTRAL — Equity (finance), ownership of assets that have liabilities attached to them Stock, equity based on original contributions of cash or other value to a business Home equity, the difference between the …
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equity
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web search NEUTRAL — The meaning of EQUITY is fairness or justice in the way people are treated; often, specifically : freedom from disparities in the way people of different races, genders, etc. are treated. How to use e…
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/equity
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web search NEUTRAL — EQUITY definition: the quality of being fair or impartial; fairness; impartiality. See examples of equity used in a sentence.
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/equity
info
“on 30 March, long-term interest rates peaked and began to fall.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The search results provided are dictionary definitions of the word 'long' and a real estate company; there is no evidence regarding interest rate peaks on March 30, 2026.
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web search NEUTRAL — 3 days ago · The meaning of LONG is extending for a considerable distance. How to use long in a sentence. Synonym Discussion of Long.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/long
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web search NEUTRAL — Long Realty - Homes for Sale in Tucson, GV, Oro Valley, Phoenix area, All across AZ. Multilingual Agents
https://www.longrealty.com/
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web search NEUTRAL — LONG definition: 1. continuing for a large amount of time: 2. being a distance between two points that is more than…. Learn more.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/long
help
“The S&P 500 briefly traded under 20 times future earnings, the cheapest since the “Liberation Day” sell-off a year earlier.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found after searching for this claim.
help
“The S&P 500 Growth Index... has climbed an astonishing 16%.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found after searching for this claim.
schedule
“The seven (it is more instructive to count chip maker Broadcom, not Tesla, as the seventh member) account for 60% of the return of the S&P during the rally.”
PENDING
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“The JSE Top 40... pushing it to all-time highs in late February.”
PENDING
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“the index dropping almost 16% to mid-March.”
PENDING
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“The benchmark Top 40 index is now up almost 4% year to date.”
PENDING
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“Bitcoin. Down 15% year to date, and down 12% over the past 12 months”
PENDING
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“Brent crude peaked at $118 a barrel at precisely the moment the equity markets bottomed, and has subsequently fallen almost 20%”
PENDING
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.