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The Fed will have to raise interest rates in July to appease 'bond vigilantes,' Yardeni says

Cnbc · · 477 words · By Jeff Cox
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/the-fed-will-have-to-raise-interest-rates-in-jul…

fact_checkFact-Check Results

10 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

info Single Source 4
check_circle Corroborated 3
verified Verified By Reference 2
help Insufficient Evidence 1
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“incoming Chair Kevin Warsh”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent cross-references from CNBC and Flipboard identify Kevin Warsh as the incoming Federal Reserve Chair.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, commonly known as the Federal Reserve Board, is the main governing body of the Federal Reserve System of the United States. It oversees the Federa…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Board_of_Gover…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In November 2025, federal prosecutors in Washington, D.C., opened a criminal investigation into Jerome H. Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, concerning the renovation of the Federal Reserve’s h…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_investigation_into_Jer…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Kevin Maxwell Warsh (born April 13, 1970) is an American financier and attorney who is the designate chair of the Federal Reserve and a designate member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Wars…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Warsh
+ 5 more evidence sources
verified
“Yardeni, the originator of the term "bond vigilantes"”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Wikipedia and multiple web sources explicitly state that Ed Yardeni coined the term 'bond vigilantes' in the 1980s.
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web search NEUTRAL — A bond vigilante is a bond market investor who protests against monetary or fiscal policies considered inflationary by selling bonds, thus increasing yields. The term was coined by Ed Yardeni in the 1…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_vigilante
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web search NEUTRAL — Yardeni coined the phrase “bond vigilante” in 1983 to describe investors that sell Treasuries in order to either protest against or influence monetary or fiscal policy. And in a video webcast on Wedne…
https://www.aol.com/finance/janet-yellen-man-invented-term-2…
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web search NEUTRAL — Strategist Ed Yardeni coined the term “bond vigilantes” more than 30 years ago. Now he says they’re back. Eric Chemi hosts.»
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDEDohHkDjs
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“Warsh is set to chair the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting”
CORROBORATED
CNBC reports that Warsh's first meeting as chair of the FOMC is scheduled for June 16-17.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — In November 2025, federal prosecutors in Washington, D.C., opened a criminal investigation into Jerome H. Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, concerning the renovation of the Federal Reserve’s h…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_investigation_into_Jer…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Stephen Ira Miran (; MY-run; born June 1983) is an American economist who has served as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors since September 2025. Miran served as the chair of the Counci…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Miran
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, commonly known as the Federal Reserve Board, is the main governing body of the Federal Reserve System of the United States. It oversees the Federa…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Board_of_Gover…
+ 4 more evidence sources
verified
“Yardeni, the head of Yardeni Research”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Wikipedia and LinkedIn confirm Ed Yardeni is the president/head of Yardeni Research.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Gabriel's Revelation, also called Hazon Gabriel (the Vision of Gabriel) or the Jeselsohn Stone, is a stone tablet with 87 lines of Hebrew text written in ink, containing a collection of short propheci…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabriel's_Revelation
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Edward Yardeni (born March 15, 1950) is an Israeli-born American economist and the president of Yardeni Research, which offers economic research and recommendations to clients. He is also the former c…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Yardeni
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Myriam Yardeni (Hebrew: מרים ירדני; 27 April 1932 – 8 May 2015) was an Israeli historian and scholar of French history. She was professor of general history at the University of Haifa.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myriam_Yardeni
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Treasury yields surged Friday, with the 30-year bond eclipsing 5% to its highest in nearly a year.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web sources (GoldSeek, Google News) report the 30-year Treasury yield topping 5.1%, reaching a nearly one-year high.
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web search NEUTRAL — GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like)…
https://goldseek.com/article/30-year-treasury-yield-tops-51-…
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web search NEUTRAL — 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.1%, highest in nearly a year.In the NY bond market on the 15th, long-term interest rates rose significantly, with the yield on 10-year bonds reaching 4.60%. 2 days ago.
https://news.google.com/stories/CAAqNggKIjBDQklTSGpvSmMzUnZj…
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web search NEUTRAL — The 30-year Treasury yield (^TYX) rose 10 basis points to reach 5.12%, its highest level since June 2007.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4379426/posts
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“The long bond on Monday morning was little changed at 5.138%.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While web results discuss Treasury yields, none of the provided evidence specifically confirms the 5.138% figure for Monday morning.
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web search NEUTRAL — News Stream. Treasury Yields Edge Down, Iran Response Awaited. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.35% on Friday, approaching the two-week lows touched earlier in the week, as developm…
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-y…
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web search NEUTRAL — Get updated data about US Treasuries. Find information on government bonds yields, muni bonds and interest rates in the USA.Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS).
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bon…
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web search NEUTRAL — US Treasury Yield Curve. Powell's term ends in days. View the yield curve today, this page displays current data on government bond yields in the United States, including the daily high, low and yield…
https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/usa-government-bonds
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“The 2-year Treasury... edged lower to 4.07%.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence mentions 2-year yields in general contexts or different values, but does not specifically confirm the 4.07% figure for the time in question.
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web search NEUTRAL — The 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields are up on Tuesday as Wall Street traders consider the potential of additional rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve.The yield on the 10-year Treasury rea…
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/bond-yield-4-10-year-tre…
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web search NEUTRAL — Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS2) from 1976-06-01 to 2026-05-07 about 2-year, maturity, Tr…
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2
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web search NEUTRAL — The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.35% on Friday, approaching the two-week lows touched earlier in the week, as developments in the Middle East continued to dominate investor sentimen…
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-y…
info
“Warsh has said he believes the Fed can lower its benchmark interest rate from its current targeted range of 3.5%-3.75%.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The claim about Warsh's view on lowering rates from 3.5%-3.75% is not corroborated by the provided evidence; only general mentions of Warsh as incoming leader exist.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Federal Reserve has held US interest rates steady after what was expected to be Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair. Hours after his successor Kevin Warsh won the backing of a key Senate commit…
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62rm4zk3kgo
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web search NEUTRAL — The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 3.75 percent. Interest Rate in the United States is expected to be 3.75 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading E…
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
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web search NEUTRAL — The Federal Reserve is yapping too much about the economy, according to Kevin Warsh, the US central bank’s incoming leader.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/17/business/federal-reserve-…
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“current pricing implying a 42% chance of an increase by the end of the year, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence confirms the existence and purpose of the CME FedWatch tool, but does not provide the specific 42% probability figure mentioned in the claim.
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web search NEUTRAL — The CME Group FedWatch Tool is the primary source for market-implied probabilities of Federal Reserve rate changes. It uses Fed Funds futures prices to gauge market expectations.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fed-rate-hike-probability-per…
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web search NEUTRAL — Use CME FedWatch to track the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices. Interested in learning more about our Interest Rates products, such as SOFR, Fed …
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch…
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web search NEUTRAL — Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on …
https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor
help
“the current implied probability for a July increase is just 4.2%, per FedWatch.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found for this claim.
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.