The betting history of the World Cup: Biggest upsets, long-shot surprises, odds of winners

verified

“For the first time in the tournament’s history, it will feature a 48-team field (up from 32) and will be played in three different countries.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia and web search results explicitly confirm that the 2026 FIFA World Cup will expand to 48 teams and be hosted by three countries (Canada, Mexico, and the United States).

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 FIFA U-17 World Cup will be the 21st edition of the FIFA U-17 World Cup, the annual international men's youth football contested by the under-17 national teams of the member associations of F…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_U-17_World_Cup

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be the 23rd FIFA World Cup, the quadrennial international men's soccer championship contested by the national teams of the member associations of FIFA. The tournament will…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be an international soccer tournament organized by FIFA, with an expansion over the previous competition from 32 to 48 teams. The broadcasting rights are sold directly by …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_broadcasti…

+ 3 more evidence sources

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“The 48 teams will be separated into 12 groups of four, with the top two countries in each set automatically qualifying for the knockout stage along with the eight best third-place finishers, giving us a Round of 32”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent sources (FIFA official-style web results and FlashscoreUSA) confirm the format of 12 groups of four, with the top two and eight best third-place teams advancing to a Round of 32.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be the 23rd FIFA World Cup, the quadrennial international men's soccer championship contested by the national teams of the member associations of FIFA. The tournament will…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification decided the 45 teams that joined hosts Canada, Mexico, and the United States at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Qualification began on 7 September 2023 with three matche…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_qualificat…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 FIFA World Cup is an international football tournament which will be held in Canada, Mexico, and United States, from June 11 to July 19, 2026. The 48 national teams involved in the tournament…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_squads

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

“Only twice has a team with double-digit odds lifted the Jules Rimet Trophy, while 11 of the last 15 winners have gone off at 6/1 or shorter.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided evidence includes general World Cup lists and 1966 details, but no specific betting odds data for winners between 1966 and 2022 to verify the 'double-digit odds' or '6/1 or shorter' claims.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 1966 FIFA World Cup was the eighth FIFA World Cup, the quadrennial football tournament for senior national teams. It was played in England from 11 to 30 July 1966. England defeated West Germany 4–…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_FIFA_World_Cup

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The knockout stage of the 1966 FIFA World Cup was the second and final stage of the competition, following the group stage. The knockout stage began on 23 July with the quarter-finals and ended on 30 …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_s…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Eighteen countries have hosted the FIFA World Cup in the competition's twenty-two tournaments since the inaugural World Cup in 1930. The organisation at first awarded hosting to countries at meetings …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_FIFA_World_Cup_hosts

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

“The average odds of the last 15 World Cup champions are +587.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

No evidence was provided that contains betting odds statistics or averages for the last 15 World Cup champions.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2018 FIFA World Cup was the 21st FIFA World Cup, the quadrennial world championship for national football teams organised by FIFA. It took place in Russia from 14 June to 15 July 2018, after the c…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be the 23rd FIFA World Cup, the quadrennial international men's soccer championship contested by the national teams of the member associations of FIFA. The tournament will…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The FIFA World Cup, often called the World Cup, is an international association football competition among the senior men's national teams of the members of the Fédération Internationale de Football A…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

“Interestingly, only three of the outright favorites have won in that span, with Spain being the last to do so in 2010.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

While evidence confirms Spain won in 2010, there is no data provided regarding the 'outright favorite' status of winners between 1966 and 2022 to verify the count of three.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 1966 FIFA World Cup was the eighth FIFA World Cup, the quadrennial football tournament for senior national teams. It was played in England from 11 to 30 July 1966. England defeated West Germany 4–…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_FIFA_World_Cup

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The knockout stage of the 1966 FIFA World Cup was the second and final stage of the competition, following the group stage. The knockout stage began on 23 July with the quarter-finals and ended on 30 …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_FIFA_World_Cup_knockout_s…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Eighteen countries have hosted the FIFA World Cup in the competition's twenty-two tournaments since the inaugural World Cup in 1930. The organisation at first awarded hosting to countries at meetings …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_FIFA_World_Cup_hosts

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

“In five of the past six tournaments, at least one of the top eight teams in the pre-tournament betting market failed to survive the group stage.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The evidence provided discusses general team histories and 2026 odds, but does not provide a historical analysis of betting favorites' group stage exits over the last six tournaments.

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web search NEUTRAL — In 1949, 10 of the 11 players in the team's initial line-up were killed in a plane crash that affected Torino, winners of the previous five Serie A titles. Italy did not advance further than the first…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italy_national_football_team

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web search NEUTRAL — Messi magic sets up win | Argentina v Mexico | FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022Argentina vs Mexico 2-0 World Cup 2022 | Extended Highlights & Goals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI1J4Ss204Y

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web search NEUTRAL — This is the first time the Norwegians have qualified for the World Cup since 1998, but they have plenty of betting support thanks to the presence of Erling Haaland and his supporting castmates Oscar B…
https://nypost.com/2026/05/18/betting/2026-world-cup-odds-fr…

info

“The only World Cup to not feature any real shock eliminations in the group stage was Germany 2006.”

SINGLE SOURCE

Evidence confirms the 2006 World Cup took place in Germany, but does not provide the betting data necessary to determine if it was the only tournament without a top-eight favorite being eliminated in the group stage.

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web search NEUTRAL — The 2006 FIFA World Cup was the 18th FIFA World Cup, the quadrennial international football world championship tournament. It was held from 9 June to 9 July 2006 in Germany, which had won the right to…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_FIFA_World_Cup

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web search NEUTRAL — Fans voted in numbers on Twitter to have their favourite World Cup matches streamed on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qcx4iDWu3tU

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web search NEUTRAL — The FIFA World Cup 2026™ will be the 23rd edition of the tournament but the first to feature 48 teams and three host countries: Canada, Mexico and the United States.
https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexi…

info

“In 2002, when co-favorites Argentina and France were both eliminated before the knockout round.”

SINGLE SOURCE

Evidence confirms the 2002 World Cup occurred, but does not specify whether Argentina and France were 'co-favorites' or that they were both eliminated specifically before the knockout round in that context.

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web search NEUTRAL — The 2002 World Cup was also the last one to use the golden goal rule and the last one to use the same ball for all matches. Starting in 2006 and continuing to the present, a ball with the same technic…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_FIFA_World_Cup

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web search NEUTRAL — Watch or stream for FREE the biggest World Cup archive of all time on FIFA+ https://app.fifa.com/RX34/d187cd5d France and Argentina played out a FIFA Worl...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6C6oOcDFmLY

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web search NEUTRAL — France has been to the finals in the past two World Cups, defeating Croatia at Russia 2018 and then falling to Lionel Messi and Argentina in Qatar 2022. This will be Didier Deschamps’ third World Cup …
https://nypost.com/2026/05/18/betting/2026-world-cup-odds-fr…

help

“In 2022, Morocco (200/1) and Croatia (50/1) both made it to the semifinals”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided for this claim in the search results.

help

“Croatia... finishing as runners-up to France despite boasting 33/1 odds before the tournament started.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided for this claim in the search results.

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“Kockasti were also semi-finalists in 1998, when they began the tournament as 66/1 outsiders.”

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“Uruguay made it to the semifinals in 2010 as a 100/1 long shot.”

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“South Korea (200/1) and Turkey (100/1) were both semifinalists that year [2002].”

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“Saudi Arabia... stunned eventual champions Argentina as a 20/1 underdog in the group stage [2022].”

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“Japan shocked both Spain and Germany to win Group E [2022].”

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“South Korea eliminated Die Mannschaft with a 2-0 win in the group stage in Russia 2018.”

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“Senegal’s 1-0 win over defending champions France in the opening match of South Korea/Japan 2002”

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“Senegal made it all the way to the quarterfinals, where they lost to Turkey [2002].”

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“Algeria upset tournament-favorites West Germany in Spain 1982.”

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“Cameroon... upsetting Diego Maradona and Argentina [1990].”

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“USA’s win over England in 1950, North Korea’s 1-0 victory against Italy in 1966, and Costa Rica’s 1-0 triumph against Italy in 2014.”

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“Japan was 11/1 when it flipped the script by winning Group E ahead of Germany, Spain, and Costa Rica [2022].”

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“Morocco sprung a surprise by topping Group F, which also included Croatia and Belgium, as a 9/1 underdog [2022].”

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“Russia 2018 also saw six of eight favorites top their group, with Sweden (+700) and Croatia (+240) being the two outliers.”

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“Costa Rica... topped the group [in 2014], and eliminated both England and Italy”

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“Costa Rica was one of two underdogs, along with the Netherlands (+225), to win their group in 2014.”

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“The United States got a last-gasp winner from Landon Donovan in the final match of the round robin to beat Algeria, 1-0 [2010].”

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“The goal sent the Americans to the top of Group C, which also included England and Slovenia [2010].”

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“Uruguay (+400) and Paraguay (+333) were the others [underdogs to top their set in 2010].”

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“Only one of the last six winners [of the Golden Boot], James Rodriguez in 2014, played for a team that didn’t make it to at least the semifinals.”

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“Five of the last six top scorers had double-digit odds before the tournament started, and the average price of the winners in that span was +1760.”

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“Kylian Mbappe of France is the favorite to win the Golden Boot at the 2026 World Cup at +600 (DraftKings).”

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“The United States Men’s National Team is 55/1 to win the 2026 World Cup at FanDuel Sportsbook.”

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“The Yanks have made it to the Round of 16 the last three times they’ve made it to the World Cup (they didn’t qualify in 2018), and have only been eliminated in the group stage once since 1998.”

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“The United States is a +105 favorite to win Group D ahead of Turkey (+180), Paraguay (+310), and Australia (10/1) in the 2026 World Cup.”

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The betting history of the World Cup: Biggest upsets, long-shot surprises, odds of winners

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