Supply chain crises increase banks' credit risks by 70%, modeling study finds

Phys · May 26, 2026 · 1007 words · By Complexity Science Hub

Supply Chain Contagion Economic Modeling Financial Systemic Risk

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What to know about Supply Chain Contagion

Researchers at the Complexity Science Hub have developed a data-driven model using Hungarian datasets to analyze how supply chain disruptions amplify systemic risk in the banking sector. The study suggests that the interaction between supply chain contagion and interbank contagion significantly increases the likelihood of extreme financial losses.

Propaganda risk 10%

Claims checked 9

Techniques found 1

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center100%

Right0%

3 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Supply chain crises increase banks' credit risks by 70%, modeling study finds Gaby Clark Scientific Editor Robert Egan Associate Editor Mutual credit relations between banks can destabilize the financial system, as the 2007-08 crisis laid bare.

Why it matters

Researchers at the Complexity Science Hub have developed a new model showing that supply chain disruptions sharply exacerbate this systemic risk.

Common ground

Naval blockades such as in the Strait of Hormuz, trade wars, pandemics: events like these can trigger global supply chain crises.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Supply Chain Contagion story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that the researchers simulated 1,001 COVID scenarios?
How does this story connect Supply Chain Contagion with Economic Modeling over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://phys.org/news/2026-05-chain-crises-banks-credit.html

analyticsAnalysis

10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 70% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 9 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

info Single Source 7

help Insufficient Evidence 1

verified Verified By Reference 1

info

Claim 1: “the researchers simulated 1,001 COVID scenarios.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The evidence provided contains general information about COVID-19, but none of the sources mention the simulation of 1,001 scenarios by the Complexity Science Hub.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Gravediggers bury the body of a man suspected of having died of COVID-19 in the cemetery of Vila Alpina in eastern São Paulo, 3 April 2020.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic

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web search NEUTRAL — Pneumothorax in COVID-19 disease- incidence and clinical characteristics.
https://www.sci-hub.st/?ref=lekler.com.br

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — masks have been shown to be effective in limiting the risk of COVID-19.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi9069

info

Claim 2: “The model is based on a comprehensive Hungarian dataset encompassing more than 240,000 companies, 19 banks, over 1.1 million supply chain links, and more than 40,000 bank-firm loans.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided evidence for this claim consists of irrelevant login pages for Study.com and Quizlet; no data regarding the Hungarian dataset is present.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Need a Study.com Account? Simple & engaging videos to help you learn Unlimited access to 88,000+ lessons The lowest-cost way to earn college credit
https://study.com/academy/login.html

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — How do you want to study? Master whatever you’re learning with Quizlet’s interactive flashcards, practice tests, and study activities.
https://quizlet.com/

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Master any subject with Studley AI. Trusted by more than 2,000,000 top students. Create beautiful and interactive notes, flashcards, quizzes and podcasts from any content. Study smarter, not harder.
https://www.studley.ai/

info

Claim 3: “One of the simulations replicates the actual production drops experienced by affected Hungarian firms during the first quarter of 2020.”

SINGLE SOURCE

No evidence in the provided search results mentions a simulation replicating production drops of Hungarian firms in Q1 2020.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The report identifies the opportunities for small businesses in digitalising their different business functions, and how they manage their transition. It.
https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/report…

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web search NEUTRAL — Replications are important for assessing the reliability of published findings. However, they are costly, and it is infeasible to replicate everything.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11860236/

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — These challenges in the automotive industry are addressed through case studies of old and new peripheries in the European automotive industry. The case studies ...
https://www.etui.org/sites/default/files/2020-09/The+challen…

info

Claim 4: “Supply chain crises increase banks' credit risks by 70%, modeling study finds”

SINGLE SOURCE

The claim is found in one specific web search result titled 'Supply chain crises increase banks' credit risks by 70%, modeling study...', but no other independent sources corroborate this specific percentage.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — A complex system is a system composed of many components that interact with one another. Examples of complex systems are Earth's global climate, organisms, the human brain, infrastructure such as powe…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_system

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSH) is a Vienna-based research organisation with the aim to bundle, coordinate and advance the research of complex systems, system analysis and big data science in …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complexity_Science_Hub

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Peter Valentinovich Turchin (Russian: Пётр Валенти́нович Турчи́н ; born 22 May 1957) is a Russian-American scientist who specializes in an area of study he and his colleagues developed called cliodyna…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Turchin

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 5: “Researchers at the Complexity Science Hub have developed a new model showing that supply chain disruptions sharply exacerbate this systemic risk.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The claim is mentioned in one web search result regarding a model developed by the Complexity Science Hub, but no other independent sources confirm the specific findings of this model.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Palais Rothschild is a former palatial residence in Vienna, Austria. It was one of five Palais Rothschild in the city that were owned by members of the Rothschild banking family of Austria, a bran…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palais_Rothschild_(Metternichg…

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+ 3 more evidence sources

help

Claim 6: “In 2024, CSH researchers demonstrated that this "supply chain contagion" can raise banks' credit risk far beyond what conventional models would predict.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found after searching for this claim.

verified

Claim 7: “the systemic risk emanating from individual firms is amplified on average by 12% and by up to 28% through interbank contagion.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

While there are general papers on systemic risk and interbank contagion, none of the provided evidence sources contain the specific figures of 12% and 28% mentioned in the claim.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — ISO 4217 is a standard published by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) that defines alpha codes and numeric codes for the representation of currencies and provides information ab…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_4217

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Interbank, formally the Banco Internacional del Perú Service Holding S.A.A., is a Peruvian provider of financial services.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interbank

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Interbank may refer to Interbank, a Peruvian bank İnterbank, a defunct Turkish bank Interbank market, the foreign exchange market of currencies a defunct credit card service from MasterCard InterBank…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interbank_(disambiguation)

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 8: “A large-scale supply chain crisis amplifies bank losses through credit interconnections on the interbank market by 70%”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific figure of 70% amplification of bank losses is mentioned in one web search result attributed to researcher Jan Fialkowski, but not corroborated by other sources.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Carrier-grade NAT (CGN or CGNAT), also known as large-scale NAT (LSN), is a type of network address translation (NAT) used by Internet service providers (ISPs) in IPv4 network design. With CGNAT, end …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrier-grade_NAT

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — An integrated circuit (IC), also known as a microchip or simply chip, is a compact assembly of electronic circuits formed from various electronic components, such as transistors, resistors, and capaci…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The large-scale structure of the universe is the term in cosmology for the character of matter distribution at the scale of the entire observable universe. Sky surveys and mappings of the various wave…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large-scale_structure_of_the_u…

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 9: “recently published in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control”

SINGLE SOURCE

One web search result mentions the study was published in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, but other search results for Jan Fialkowski do not explicitly list this specific paper in the provided snippets.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A number of significant scientific events occurred in 2020.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_in_science

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), or paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome (PIMS / PIMS-TS), or systemic inflammatory syndrome in COVID-19 (SISCoV), is a rare systemic illn…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multisystem_inflammatory_syndr…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This article presents a detailed timeline of events in the history of computing from 2020 to the present. For narratives explaining the overall developments, see the history of computing. Significant …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_computing_2020–pre…

+ 3 more evidence sources

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.