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Study: A tiny elite sets Polymarket’s prices while most users lose money | The Jerusalem Post

Jpost · · 684 words · By JERUSALEM POST STAFF
Crypto Ecosystem Growth Behavioral Economics Prediction Market Efficiency
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.jpost.com/science/article-894967

psychologyDetected Techniques

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Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

15 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

check_circle Corroborated 6
schedule Pending 5
info Single Source 2
verified Verified By Reference 1
help Insufficient Evidence 1
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“The paper—titled “Prediction Market Accuracy: Crowd Wisdom or Informed Minority?” by Roberto Gómez-Cram, Yunhan Guo, Theis Ingerslev Jensen, and Howard Kung—analyzes Polymarket trades from 2023 to 2025”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results from different outlets (MSN, The Block, and others) refer to a working paper analyzing Polymarket trades from 2023 to 2025, though the specific title is mentioned in the context of the study's findings across several reports.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Collective intelligence (CI) or group intelligence (GI) is the emergent ability of groups, whether composed of humans alone, animals, or networks of humans and artificial agents, to solve problems, ma…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_intelligence
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, or event derivatives, are open markets that enable the prediction of specific outcomes using fin…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — "Wisdom of the crowd" or "wisdom of the majority" expresses the notion that the collective opinion of a diverse and independent group of individuals (rather than that of a single expert) yields the be…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“roughly 3% of traders account for most price discovery, tend to be first to react to new information, and regularly push prices in the right direction”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent sources (Timescry, CoinDesk via a third party, and other web results) confirm that approximately 3% of traders drive most price discovery and move prices toward correct outcomes.
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web search NEUTRAL — MAY 3, 2026 15:16. A new working paper argues that the accuracy of fast-growing prediction markets is driven not by broad crowd wisdom but by a small cadre of skilled participants who consistently mov…
https://www.jpost.com/science/article-894967
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web search NEUTRAL — The authors said skilled traders’ order flow predicted both future price moves and final market outcomes, while lucky winners, despite positive profits, showed no meaningful predictive power. Most Use…
https://timescrypto.com/markets/news/informed-minority-drive…
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web search NEUTRAL — The data sharpens a picture already forming in academic work: a London Business School and Yale paper, previously analyzed by CoinDesk, found that about 3% of Polymarket traders drive most price disco…
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/29/a-tiny-group-is-…
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“The researchers examined approximately $13.76 billion in trading volume spanning 1.72 million accounts and 98,906 events over the 2023–2025 period.”
CORROBORATED
The specific figures ($13.76 billion volume, 1.72 million accounts, 98,906 events) are explicitly cited in multiple web search results, including MSN and other reports on the study.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — 2023 (MMXXIII) was a common year starting on Sunday of the Gregorian calendar, the 2023rd year of the Common Era (CE) and Anno Domini (AD) designations, the 23rd year of the 3rd millennium and the 21…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Gaza war is an armed conflict in the Gaza Strip and Israel, fought as part of the unresolved Israeli–Palestinian and Gaza–Israel conflicts. The war began on 7 October 2023, when the Palestinian mi…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_war
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Mahua Moitra (Bengali pronunciation: [mohua moi̯tro]; born 12 October 1974) is an Indian politician and former investment banker. She is known for her controversial and fiery speeches in the parliamen…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahua_Moitra
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“the informed minority—comprising market makers and skilled traders—accounts for over 30% of total profits while representing less than 3.5% of accounts.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm that the informed minority (market makers and skilled traders) represents less than 3.5% of accounts but accounts for over 30% of total profits.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, or event derivatives, are open markets that enable the prediction of specific outcomes using fin…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Simon Rosenberg (born October 23, 1963) is a Democratic political strategist and blogger. He was the founder of New Democrat Network (NDN), a centrist think tank and advocacy group based in Washington…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Rosenberg
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is an independent agency of the United States federal government. Created in 1974, the commission regulates the United States derivatives …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Commodity_Future…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“67% of accounts are categorized as “unlucky or unskilled losers,””
CORROBORATED
Both Binance News and The Block explicitly state that 67% of accounts were categorized as 'unlucky or unskilled losers' who absorbed the aggregate losses.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Race is a categorization of humans based on shared physical or social qualities into groups generally viewed as distinct within a given society. The term came into common usage during the 16th century…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_(human_categorization)
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The System of National Accounts or SNA (until 1993 known as the United Nations System of National Accounts or UNSNA) is an international standard system of concepts and methods for compiling national …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_of_National_Accounts
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Wikipedia is a free online encyclopedia written and maintained by a community of volunteers, known as Wikipedians, through open collaboration and the wiki software MediaWiki. Founded by Jimmy Wales an…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
“Forty-four percent of accounts classified as skilled in an initial learning sample remained skilled in a separate sample”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The provided evidence for this claim consists of generic articles about critical thinking and talent management, with no mention of the specific 44% persistence figure from the Polymarket study.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Cleopatra VII Thea Philopator (Koine Greek: Κλεοπάτρα Θεά Φιλοπάτωρ, lit. 'Cleopatra father-loving goddess'; 70/69 BC – 10 or 12 August 30 BC) was Queen of the Ptolemaic Kingdom of Egypt from 51 to 30…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleopatra
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Ghana ( GAH-nə), officially the Republic of Ghana, is a country in West Africa. It is situated with the Gulf of Guinea and the Atlantic Ocean to the south, and shares borders with Côte d'Ivoire to th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghana
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Hebrew Bible, Jewish Bible or Tanakh (US: , UK: or ; Hebrew: תַּנַ״ךְ, romanized: tanaḵ; תָּנָ״ךְ, tānāḵ; or תְּנַ״ךְ, tənaḵ), also known in Hebrew as Miqra (; מִקְרָא, miqrāʾ), is the canonical …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebrew_Bible
+ 3 more evidence sources
info
“roughly 10% persistence observed in a parallel test of active mutual funds.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence provided consists only of dictionary definitions of the word 'persistence' and does not mention mutual fund persistence rates.
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web search NEUTRAL — The meaning of PERSISTENCE is the action or fact of persisting. How to use persistence in a sentence.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/persistence
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web search NEUTRAL — PERSISTENCE definition: 1. the fact that someone or something persists: 2. the fact that someone or something persists…. Learn more.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/persiste…
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web search NEUTRAL — Definition of persistence noun in Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary. Meaning, pronunciation, picture, example sentences, grammar, usage notes, synonyms and more.
https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/englis…
info
“Among the biggest winners by profit, only 12% outperformed a benchmark generated by running 10,000 random outcome simulations of their trading”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence provided consists of generic random number generator and cognitive test websites, not the specific findings of the study regarding the 12% benchmark.
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web search NEUTRAL — Free. Windows, Mac OS, Linux, iOS, Android. Random number generator for numbers 0 to 1,000,000. Generate positive or negative random numbers or random number lists with repeats or no repeats.
https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/statistics/random…
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web search NEUTRAL — Human Benchmark. Measure your abilities with brain games and cognitive tests. Get Started.Opt out of the sale or sharing of personal information.
https://humanbenchmark.com/
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web search NEUTRAL — Free Human Benchmark tests online. Measure reaction time, memory, typing speed, aim, and more with 20+ cognitive games. Works in any browser, no sign-up, no ads.
https://www.gptgames.dev/games/human_benchmark/
help
“about 60% of apparent “lucky winners” turned into losers when their results were checked against an independent set of events.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found after searching for this specific claim.
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“On Polymarket, monthly trading volume jumped from $3.3 million in December 2023 to $1.98 billion in December 2025”
CORROBORATED
A web search result explicitly mentions that monthly trading volume rose from $3.3 million in December 2023 to $1.98 billion in December 2025.
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“active accounts expanded from about 1,600 to more than 519,000 over the same period.”
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“monthly trading volume exceeding $15 billion [for prediction markets in the crypto ecosystem]”
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“A separate study indicates that only 0.015% of Polymarket users have achieved consistent profits at a level that might prompt them to consider leaving their primary jobs”
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“more than 73% of prediction market outcomes resolve as “No,””
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“Vitalik Buterin reported earning $70,000 on Polymarket by targeting what he characterized as irrational predictions, allocating $440,000 across contracts on unlikely events and posting a 16% return”
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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.