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Stocks are poised to handle a small hike in rates, according to the charts

Cnbc · · 1101 words · By Todd Gordon
Inflationary Pressures Monetary Policy Stock Market Technical Analysis
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/stocks-could-handle-the-end-of-the-easing-cycle-…

psychologyDetected Techniques

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Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
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Appeal to Authority 70% confidence
Citing an authority figure as evidence, even when the authority is not qualified on the topic.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

10 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

info Single Source 5
help Insufficient Evidence 3
check_circle Corroborated 2
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“Recent consumer price index and producer price index readings were elevated, confirming the inflationary pressures from the geopolitical shock of the Iran war.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results confirm that CPI and PPI readings were elevated and specifically link this surge to oil prices and inflationary pressures resulting from a war with Iran (e.g., April 2025 data showing a 3.8% CPI jump).
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web search NEUTRAL — The producer price report suggested inflationary pressures are becoming less confined to energy. Energy prices jumped 7.8% in the producer index for April after a 10.1% spike in March, but price incre…
https://fox17.com/news/nation-world/oil-driven-inflation-sur…
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web search NEUTRAL — Consumer prices increased moderately in January, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed on Friday.A snapshot taken just before the shock to oil prices from the war with Iran, the price…
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/business/economy/consumer…
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web search NEUTRAL — The Labor Department’s consumer price index rose 3.8% from April 2025, the biggest jump in three years, and up from a 3.3% year-over-year gain in March. On a month-to-month basis, April prices rose 0.…
https://www.wndu.com/2026/05/12/iran-war-is-hitting-home-gas…
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“the core readings, excluding food and energy, were also elevated, partly due to a re-acceleration in housing costs.”
CORROBORATED
Evidence confirms that 'core' readings (excluding energy/food) climbed, with one source specifically noting a 4.4% year-over-year increase in core PPI. While the specific mention of 'housing costs' is not explicitly detailed in the snippets, the elevation of core readings is corroborated by multiple sources.
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web search NEUTRAL — The producer price index attempts to measure prices further up the chain from the ultimate consumer. It should give a forewarning of what CPI might show in future months. That index also rose signific…
https://healthy-skeptic.com/2026/05/14/cpi-and-ppi/
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web search NEUTRAL — Energy prices jumped 7.8% in the producer index for April after a 10.1% spike in March, but price increases weren’t contained to energy. The “core” reading, which strips out energy and other volatile …
https://katv.com/news/nation-world/oil-driven-inflation-surg…
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web search NEUTRAL — Core PPI, which excludes food and energy categories, was unchanged last month compared to June. That resulted in a 2.4% annual rise. In the overall report, services categories fell 0.2% while the pric…
https://sgkwealthadvisors.com/blogs/weekly-update-08162024-c…
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“CME Group fed funds futures show that just three weeks ago, there was almost no chance of a quarter percentage point hike to a range of 3.75–4.00% from the current target range of 3.50–3.75% by year-end.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence confirms that CME Group FedWatch is the tool used to track these probabilities, but the specific historical probability (near-zero chance three weeks prior) is not found in the provided search results.
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web search NEUTRAL — Based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which have long been used to express the market's views on the likelihood of changes in U.S. monetary policy, the CME Group FedWatch tool allows mark…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate
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web search NEUTRAL — Use CME FedWatch to track the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices. Interested in learning more about our Interest Rates products, such as SOFR, Fed …
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch…
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web search NEUTRAL — Bitcoin Futures CME.Fed Interest Rate Decision. Ready to Act on Market Events? Compare trusted brokers to trade based on real-time economic data and forecasts.
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-de…
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“Today, that chance has elevated to 50-50 at the October meeting, and a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike by December.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While the tool (CME FedWatch) exists and is used for these forecasts, the specific percentages (50% for October, 79% for December) are not present in the provided evidence.
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web search NEUTRAL — US Treasury interest rates compared to Federal Funds Rate. The Federal Funds Rate pushes up shorter term treasuries to cause an inverted yield curve when the Federal Reserve wants to tame demand and i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate
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web search NEUTRAL — Use CME FedWatch to track the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices. Interested in learning more about our Interest Rates products, such as SOFR, Fed …
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch…
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web search NEUTRAL — Get the Fed Interest Rate Decision results in real time as they're announced and see the immediate global market impact.
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-de…
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“the Fed catching up to the 2 year U.S. yield and closing the massive gap between the two with 425 bps of hikes in 2022.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
The claim states the Fed implemented 425 bps of hikes in 2022. However, authoritative evidence from Statista states that between March 2022 and July 2023, the FOMC raised the target rate by 525 basis points, contradicting the 425 bps figure for the 2022 period.
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web search NEUTRAL — Between March 2022 and July 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target rate by 525 basis points, making this tightening cycle, which now appears to be over, the fastest in…
https://www.statista.com/chart/28437/interest-rate-hikes-in-…
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web search NEUTRAL — Through its rate hikes in 2022 & 2023, the Fed aimed to contain inflationary forces and maintain “maximum” levels of employment. It began slashing rates in 2024 & 2025, and more cuts are anticipated i…
https://www.thestreet.com/fed/fed-rate-hikes-2022-2023-timel…
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web search NEUTRAL — #Fed #Tapering #interestratesDana Peterson, The Conference Board Chief Economist, and Jeanette Garretty, Robertson Stephens Wealth Management Chief Economist...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axzrqGLvw8A
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“the Cleveland Fed 2-year expected inflation well below the 2022 high.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The search results for 'Cleveland' returned general city information and local news, but no data regarding the Cleveland Fed's 2-year expected inflation rates.
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web search NEUTRAL — Get the latest Cleveland, OH news, sports, and breaking updates. View daily weather and top stories from Cleveland, Akron and beyond on cleveland.com.
https://www.cleveland.com/
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web search NEUTRAL — Cleveland is the most populous city on Lake Erie and second-most populous city in Ohio (after Columbus), with a population of 372,624 at the 2020 census. [6] The Greater Cleveland metropolitan area, w…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleveland
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web search NEUTRAL — 6 days ago · Cleveland is a city where entrepreneurial grit actually has a nice ring to it. Where world-changing breakthroughs meet genuine, hardworking people connected by the traditions we share, th…
https://www.clevelandohio.gov/
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“the expected inflationary reading and prior chart resistance high from 2018 of 2.43% was broken!”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence mentions general inflation rates for 2026 and other regions, but does not provide the specific 2018 resistance high of 2.43% or confirmation that it was broken in March 2022.
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web search NEUTRAL — The annual inflation rate in the United States was 2.4% for the 12 months ending February, the same as previously, according to U.S. Labor Department data released March 11, 2026. The next update is s…
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-infl…
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web search NEUTRAL — Inflation accelerated to 7.2% in April, its fastest pace in more than three years, driven by higher oil prices that pushed up the cost of food — particularly rice — and utilities. This was faster than…
https://philippinetribune.net/oil-shocks-uncertainty-muddy-p…
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web search NEUTRAL — Underlying inflation was also expected to get a lift from healthcare costs after a surprise decline in March.Core CPI inflation is expected to have increased 2.7% year-on-year in April after rising 2.…
https://www.aol.com/articles/us-consumer-inflation-expected-…
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“The orange line is the U.S. 2 year Treasury yield that at the time was yielding 2.30%”
SINGLE SOURCE
While the St. Louis Fed provides data for the 2-year Treasury yield, the provided snippets do not confirm the specific value of 2.30% for March 2022.
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web search NEUTRAL — 30 year treasury minus 3 month treasury bond.United States Treasury securities, also called Treasuries or Treasurys, are government debt instruments issued by the United States Department of the Treas…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Treasury_securit…
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web search NEUTRAL — This is the past 30 years of 10 year US treasury rate notes.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-…
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web search NEUTRAL — Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS2) from 1976-06-01 to 2026-05-07 about 2-year, maturity, Tr…
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2
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“expected 2-year inflation were to remain below the 2022 highs of 2.98%”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the search results to verify the 2022 high of 2.98% for the Cleveland Fed's expected inflation.
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“Below is a 54-year chart of the Nasdaq Composite/S & P 500 ratio. The Nasdaq/S & P ratio tried 3 times to break through the 3.55 resistance first in 2000, again in 2022, and now a third time in 2026.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found regarding the Nasdaq Composite/S&P 500 ratio or the specific resistance level of 3.55.
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.