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State Department warns US diplomats against using insider information in Iran-related wagers

RT News · · 386 words · By Russia Today
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.rt.com/business/639567-us-diplomats-betting-iran-war/

fact_checkFact-Check Results

9 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

check_circle Corroborated 5
info Single Source 3
help Insufficient Evidence 1
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“US diplomats have been warned against using confidential government information to place wagers tied to the Iran talks, the Wall Street Journal has reported.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results confirm that the Wall Street Journal reported US diplomats were warned against using confidential information for wagers tied to Iran talks.
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web search NEUTRAL — The State Department has warned US diplomats against profiting from Iran-related wagers amid scrutiny over suspiciously timed bets.
https://www.rt.com/business/639567-us-diplomats-betting-iran…
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web search NEUTRAL — According to the Wall Street Journal report, the State Department memorandum was issued a week after the arrest of a U.S. special forces soldier accused of using classified information to profit from …
https://trump.news/2026-05-09-state-department-warns-diploma…
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web search NEUTRAL — The scrutiny follows reports of suspiciously-timed bets and trades tied to Middle East tensions US diplomats have been warned against using confidential government information to place wagers tied to …
https://dissentwatch.com/boost/?boost_post_id=1134663
info
“The US State Department has issued a memorandum reminding employees worldwide that using undisclosed official information for financial gain is a “very serious offense” that “will not be tolerated,” the WSJ wrote on Thursday.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While the general event (the warning) is corroborated in claim 0, the specific wording of the memorandum ('very serious offense' and 'will not be tolerated') is only attributed to the WSJ report in the provided evidence and not independently confirmed by other sources.
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web search NEUTRAL — The Constitution of The United States
https://www.loc.gov/static/classroom-materials/constitution/…
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web search NEUTRAL — The signing of the Constitution took place on September 17, 1787, at the Pennsylvania State House (now called Independence Hall) in Philadelphia.
https://www.constitutionfacts.com/content/constitution/files…
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web search NEUTRAL — 1This text of the Constitution follows the engrossed copy signed by Gen. Washington and the deputies from 12 States. The small superior figures preceding the paragraphs designate clauses, and were not…
https://uscode.house.gov/static/constitution.pdf
info
“The directive reportedly referenced online prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence confirms that Kalshi and Polymarket are major prediction platforms, but the specific detail that the State Department directive referenced them by name is only found in the context of the WSJ report mentioned in the claims, not independently corroborated in the search results.
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web search NEUTRAL — Brazilian authorities have moved to shut down 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket.Brazil flags prediction platforms as debt risk. Durigan claimed that prediction markets co…
https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:5ba74454c094b…
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web search NEUTRAL — Kalshi and Polymarket, which operate the largest prediction market platforms, have recently snagged mammoth valuations and inked partnership deals with everyone from CNN and CNBC to Major League Baseb…
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/01/congress-kalshi-pol…
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web search NEUTRAL — NEW YORK (AP) — The Trump administration is throwing its support behind the prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket in a critical legal battle between the growing prediction market industry …
https://kdvr.com/news/money/ap-trump-administration-backs-ka…
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“the memo came a week after the arrest of a US special forces soldier accused of using classified information to profit from wagers tied to the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent sources, including the US Department of Justice (Office of Public Affairs) and news reports, confirm the arrest of a US special forces soldier for using classified information to bet on the removal of Nicolas Maduro.
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web search NEUTRAL — A US special forces soldier involved in the military operation that captured Nicolas Maduro has been arrested after he allegedly bet on the removal of Venezuela's former leader before the information …
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20832yg5p2o
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web search NEUTRAL — A U.S. special forces soldier was arrested and charged with using classified information about the raid to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to profit from prediction market bets, the Departmen…
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/23/us-soldier-arrested-maduro-…
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web search NEUTRAL — “The defendant allegedly violated the trust placed in him by the United States Government by using classified information about a sensitive military operation to place bets on the timing and outcome o…
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-clas…
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“Prosecutors allege the suspect – who has since pleaded not guilty – earned more than $400,000 through bets placed ahead of a US military raid in January.”
CORROBORATED
Web search results specifically mention the soldier was charged after winning $400,000 betting on the removal of Maduro, aligning with the prosecutors' allegations.
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web search NEUTRAL — Prosecutors are typically lawyers who possess a law degree and are recognised as suitable legal professionals by the court in which they are acting. This may mean they have been admitted to the bar or…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecutor
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web search NEUTRAL — Dec 5, 2025 · Prosecutors are attorneys who represent the government—whether at the local, state, or federal level—in criminal cases brought against individuals or entities accused of violating the la…
https://govfacts.org/criminal-justice-public-safety/criminal…
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web search NEUTRAL — Apr 1, 2026 · Prosecutors do more than argue in court — they shape cases from the grand jury stage through sentencing, balancing justice with advocacy. A prosecutor’s core duty in court is to seek jus…
https://legalclarity.org/what-are-the-duties-of-a-prosecutor…
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“media outlets reporting that a group of accounts earned more than $1 million through bets predicting the US-Israeli bombardment of Iran.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources (The Mirror US, AOL) report that accounts on Polymarket earned significant sums (cited as $1.2M to $1.5M) by predicting US-Israeli strikes on Iran.
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web search NEUTRAL — The State Department has warned US diplomats against profiting from Iran-related wagers amid scrutiny over suspiciously timed bets.
https://www.rt.com/business/639567-us-diplomats-betting-iran…
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web search NEUTRAL — Several users on the US-based prediction market platform Polymarket have apparently earned $1.2 million by betting on the timing of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, according to a new report.
https://www.themirror.com/money/polymarket-accounts-earn-15m…
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web search NEUTRAL — Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing use…
https://www.aol.com/articles/newly-created-polymarket-accoun…
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“A massive short position on crude oil was placed on Wednesday one hour before a report of a possible US-Iran peace deal sent prices crashing.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources (MSN, other market reports) confirm a massive crude oil short position (approx $920 million) was placed roughly one hour (70 minutes) before reports of a US-Iran peace deal.
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web search NEUTRAL — A $920 million crude oil short trade executed just over an hour before reports of a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal is under investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The trade ...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/insight/massive-oil-short-bef…
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web search NEUTRAL — Oil prices crash today: Nearly $920 million in crude oil shorts entered the market just 70 minutes before reports claimed the US and Iran were nearing a 14-point war deal. Oil prices then crashed over…
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/w…
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web search NEUTRAL — Oil prices plunged on reports that Iran and the US are nearing an agreement to end the war. Data highlighted by commentators online showed a well-timed oil short made just ahead of the report.
https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-us-iran-peace-war-news-l…
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“The Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are also reportedly examining at least four oil trades worth more than $2.6 billion that were placed shortly before market-moving statements by US and Iranian officials.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence provided for this claim consists of general Wikipedia/Gov descriptions of the DOJ and CFTC, but does not contain specific confirmation of the $2.6 billion investigation into four oil trades. This detail appears only in the claim text.
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web search NEUTRAL — The United States Department of Justice (DOJ) is an executive department of the United States federal government that oversees the domestic enforcement of federal laws and the administration of justic…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Department_of_Ju…
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web search NEUTRAL — The Department of Justice has hundreds of different programs. To locate a specific program, please use our A-Z guide.
https://oag.ca.gov/
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web search NEUTRAL — The Department of Justice (DOJ) enforces federal laws, seeks just punishment for the guilty, and ensures the fair and impartial administration of justice.
https://www.usa.gov/agencies/u-s-department-of-justice
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“The New York Times reported in January that Donald Trump Jr. had advisory ties to both Polymarket and Kalshi, and had an investment in the former through his venture firm, 1789 Capital.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results to support or refute the claim regarding Donald Trump Jr.'s ties to Polymarket and Kalshi.
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.