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SpaceX, OpenAI valuations would mean they leapfrog Berkshire Hathaway on first day of trading

Cnbc · · 473 words · By Davis Giangiulio
Revenue vs. Market Cap Tech Market Valuations IPO Speculation
open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/spacex-openai-valuations-to-leapfrog-berkshire-h…

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Loaded Language 70% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

21 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

schedule Pending 11
check_circle Corroborated 4
verified Verified By Reference 2
info Single Source 2
cancel Disputed 1
help Insufficient Evidence 1
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“SpaceX on Wednesday officially filed to go public on the Nasdaq.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent sources (Bloomberg, CNBC, Anadolu Ajansı) confirm that SpaceX officially filed for an IPO on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX.
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web search NEUTRAL — SpaceX Files for IPO on Nasdaq Under SPCX Symbol. Gift this article.SpaceX filed publicly for what stands to be the largest-ever initial public offering, revealing billions in losses and a super-votin…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-20/musk-s-sp…
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web search NEUTRAL — SpaceX files IPO prospectus, offering a peek into its finances.SpaceX officially files for Nasdaq IPO. 9 hours ago. By Vlad Schepkov.
https://news.google.com/stories/CAAqNggKIjBDQklTSGpvSmMzUnZj…
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web search NEUTRAL — Elon Musk’s SpaceX publicly filed for an initial public offering (IPO) on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SPCX, moving the rocket and satellite internet company closer to what could become the worl…
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/spacex-files-for-record-ini…
+ 1 more evidence source
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“reports circulated that OpenAI will file for an IPO confidentially as soon as Friday.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple web search results, including a report from the Wall Street Journal, indicate that OpenAI may file for a confidential IPO as soon as Friday.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Workday, Inc., is an American on‑demand (cloud-based) financial management, human capital management, and student information system software vendor. Workday was founded by David Duffield, founder and…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workday,_Inc.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The technology company Facebook, Inc., held its initial public offering (IPO) on Friday, May 18, 2012, with shares trading on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol FB. The IPO was one of the biggest in tech…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering_of_Fac…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Varonis Systems, Inc. is a software company based in Miami, Florida with R&D offices in Herzliya, Israel. The company’s Data Security Platform analyzes data, identities, and activity to find and remed…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Varonis_Systems
+ 3 more evidence sources
verified
“traders on prediction market platform Kalshi now see a 92% chance that the ChatGPT owner files for an IPO this year.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
While search results discuss Kalshi and OpenAI IPO probabilities, none of the provided evidence specifically mentions a '92% chance' for an IPO this year. One source mentions a jump from 32%, but not to 92%.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This is a list of unicorn startup companies: In finance, a unicorn is a privately held startup company with a current valuation of US$1 billion or more. Notable lists of unicorn companies are maintain…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unicorn_startup_compan…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — During the 2024 United States presidential election, the Republican Party attempted to stunt voter access, election oversight, and post-election certification. They also attempted to use strategies to…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_efforts_to_di…
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web search NEUTRAL — Kalshi is a regulated exchange & prediction market where you can trade on the outcome of real-world events. Buy and sell Event Contracts.Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for …
https://kalshi.com/
+ 2 more evidence sources
verified
“Traders also think its chief private rival, Anthropic, has 69% odds it will officially go public this year.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
The evidence mentions Kalshi and a '69% chance' regarding the Crypto CLARITY Act, but there is no evidence provided that links a 69% probability to Anthropic going public this year.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This is a list of unicorn startup companies: In finance, a unicorn is a privately held startup company with a current valuation of US$1 billion or more. Notable lists of unicorn companies are maintain…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unicorn_startup_compan…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The following is a list of events of the year 2026 in the United States, as well as predicted and scheduled events that have not yet occurred. July 4, 2026, will be the 250th anniversary of the signin…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_the_United_States
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web search NEUTRAL — Kalshi is a regulated exchange & prediction market where you can trade on the outcome of real-world events. Buy and sell Event Contracts.
https://kalshi.com/
+ 2 more evidence sources
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“according to traders on Polymarket, all are expected to trade on their first days at valuations north of $1 trillion”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence provided for Polymarket only describes the platform's general nature and does not contain any specific data regarding valuations for SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic.
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web search NEUTRAL — Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency -based prediction market which offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, including sports matches, economic indicators, weather pa…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
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web search NEUTRAL — Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, allowing you to stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on future events across various topics.
https://polymarket.com/
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web search NEUTRAL — Trade on polymarket prediction markets with USDC. Bet on politics, sports, crypto prices & real-world events. Decentralized, transparent, zero trading fees.
https://polymarkett.to/
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“SpaceX was valued at $1.25 trillion in February”
CORROBORATED
Three independent news sources (CNBC, NY Post, The Guardian) confirm that SpaceX had a valuation of $1.25 trillion in February following a merger with xAI.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Space Exploration Technologies Corporation, doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace and artificial intelligence company headquartered at the Starbase development site in Starbase, Te…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Merlin is a family of rocket engines developed by SpaceX. They are currently a part of the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch vehicles, and were formerly used on the Falcon 1. Merlin engines use RP-1 an…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Merlin
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Starship is a two-stage, fully reusable, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by American aerospace company SpaceX. Currently built and launched from Starbase in Texas, it is intended as …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Polymarket traders think there's a 56% chance it closes its first trading day above $2.2 trillion.”
DISPUTED
The evidence from Benzinga specifically contradicts the 56% claim, stating that Polymarket traders place a 39% probability on a close between $1.5T-$2T and a 26% chance between $2T-$2.5T, which does not align with a 56% chance of closing above $2.2T.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Polygon (formerly Matic Network) is a blockchain platform which aims to create a multi-chain blockchain system compatible with Ethereum. As with Ethereum, it uses a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polygon_(blockchain)
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Founders Fund is an American venture capital fund formed in 2005 and based in San Francisco. The fund has roughly $17 billion in total assets under management as of 2025. Founders Fund was the first i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Founders_Fund
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — 1789 Capital Management, LLC is an American venture capital firm based in Palm Beach, Florida. The company focuses on products and companies associated with conservative values, and positions itself a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1789_Capital
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“OpenAI was last valued at $852 billion”
CORROBORATED
Two independent sources (NY Post and CNBC) confirm OpenAI's most recent valuation was $852 billion.
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cross reference SUPPORTS — OpenAI’s share price has remained roughly in line with its $852 billion valuation from its most recent funding round.
https://nypost.com/2026/04/23/business/with-jaw-dropping-1-t…
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cross reference SUPPORTS — Open AI, which kickstarted the AI boom with the launch of its ChatGPT chatbot in 2022, recently closed a record-breaking $122 billion funding round at a post-money valuation of $852 billion.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/28/openai-reportedly-missed-rev…
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“traders think there's a 65% chance it ends its first public trading day above $1.4 trillion.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
The evidence shows that the 65% probability mentioned in Polymarket data refers to Ethereum (ETH) surpassing $5,000, not OpenAI's trading day valuation.
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web search NEUTRAL — Explore the complete Polymarket traders leaderboard with real-time stats on profit and loss (PnL), current holdings value, active positions, wins, and losses.
https://polymarketanalytics.com/traders
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web search NEUTRAL — - Polymarket data shows 65% probability of Ethereum (ETH) surpassing $5,000 by August 2024, reflecting strong market optimism.The 65% probability for ETH surpassing $5,000 implies a 35% chance that it…
https://www.ainvest.com/news/ethereum-news-today-polymarket-…
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web search NEUTRAL — Current odds: * Google: 95% * xAI: 2.3% * OpenAI: 1% * Anthropic: <1% Over $1.4M has been traded, with Google dominating the field while rivals trail far behind. Can Google maintain control, or will a…
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/polymarket_just-in-polymarket…
info
“traders place 47% odds that Anthropic on its first day of public trading will close above $1.8 trillion.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The provided evidence for Polymarket discusses general leaderboards and a different bet regarding who will 'lead' (with Anthropic at 15%), but does not mention a 47% probability of closing above $1.8 trillion.
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web search NEUTRAL — Currently, Polymarket traders only give Bitcoin a 12% chance of hitting $150,000 this year. Due to recency bias, traders are likely to underestimate Bitcoin's future upside potential.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/02/26/are-polymarket-tra…
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web search NEUTRAL — Explore the complete Polymarket traders leaderboard with real-time stats on profit and loss (PnL), current holdings value, active positions, wins, and losses.
https://polymarketanalytics.com/traders
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web search NEUTRAL — Current odds: - Anthropic: 15% - Mistral: 9% - Meta: 9% - DeepSeek: 8% Over $1.3M has been traded so far, with Anthropic narrowly ahead but no runaway favorite. Is 2025 the year a new player takes the…
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/polymarket_market-update-poly…
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“The company reportedly is in talks for a new funding round at a $900 billion valuation.”
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“Berkshire Hathaway's market cap, currently at $1.03 trillion.”
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“Meta and Tesla's around $1.5 trillion market caps.”
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“Berkshire Hathaway had over $350 billion in revenue last year.”
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“SpaceX's $18.67 billion in revenues during 2025.”
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“OpenAI reportedly generated $13.1 billion of revenue last year.”
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“reports Wednesday said that the company is pacing for a second-quarter profit, a first for the Claude owner, at nearly $11 billion in revenue.”
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“SpaceX and OpenAI are unprofitable companies”
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“US stock market worth about $70trn overall”
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“At that time [late 1990s], there was an average of almost 500 IPOs a year, compared with about 120 this decade.”
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“CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.”
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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.