SpaceX is worth less than half of its $1.75 trillion IPO target, Morningstar says

Cnbc · Jun 03, 2026 · 485 words · By Joseph Wilkins

Financial Valuation Discrepancy Investment Risk Corporate Profitability

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What to know about Financial Valuation Discrepancy

SpaceX is expected to start trading on the Nasdaq in just over two weeks, but Morningstar analysts have warned that Elon Musk's tech behemoth is "significantly overvalued." The hotly-anticipated debut is expected to be the largest ever initial public…

Claims checked 12

Techniques found 2

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center100%

Right0%

4 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Why it matters

"We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO," Morningstar analysts wrote in a note published Monday.

Common ground

The analysts see a wide range of possibilities for the potential profitability of SpaceX's xAI and find its "economic moat indeterminate." They view the unit as posing a "material threat of value destruction" to the company.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Exaggeration / Hyperbole: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Financial Valuation Discrepancy story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that Morningstar's discounted cash flow valuation of SpaceX is $780 billion?
How does this story connect Financial Valuation Discrepancy with Investment Risk over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/morningstar-spacex-ipo-target-price-nasdaq.html

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 2 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

warning

Exaggeration / Hyperbole 70% confidence

Overstating facts or claims to create a stronger emotional response.

Why it matters: Recognizing exaggeration / hyperbole helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 12 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 6

info Single Source 4

schedule Pending 2

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Claim 1: “Morningstar's discounted cash flow valuation of SpaceX is $780 billion”

CORROBORATED

Three separate web search results explicitly state that Morningstar used a discounted cash flow (DCF) model to value SpaceX at $780 billion.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX, an American aerospace and artificial intelligence company founded by Elon Musk in 2002, occurred on June 12, 2026. It was the largest ever IPO, at a valuat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering_of_Spa…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Ronald Stephen Baron (born 1943) is an American mutual fund manager and the founder of Baron Capital, a New York City-based investment management firm. Baron Capital manages the Baron Funds and had ap…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_S._Baron

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Chip Morningstar is an American software architect, mainly for online entertainment and communication. Morningstar held many jobs throughout his career in the research and development of technology a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chip_Morningstar

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 2: “A $1.75 trillion valuation would put SpaceX on 67 times sales”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 3: “SpaceX wrote in its S-1 filing that it has 'a history of net losses and may not achieve profitability in the future'”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific quote from the S-1 filing is only attributed to CNBC in the provided evidence.

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cross reference SUPPORTS — SpaceX wrote in its S-1 filing on Thursday that it has "a history of net losses and may not achieve profitability in the future."
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/ipo-flurry-top-market-analys…

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Claim 4: “Its Starlink arm generated $3.26 billion in revenue in the latest quarter, accounting for 69% of the total”

SINGLE SOURCE

The specific figures ($3.26 billion and 69% of total) are reported by CNBC, but other sources (Wikipedia, general web search) provide general info about Starlink without confirming these specific quarterly numbers.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Starlink Services, LLC is a telecommunications subsidiary of the American spaceflight company SpaceX, providing broadband Internet service in approximately 160 countries and territories. It also aims …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Starshield is a division of SpaceX's Starlink subsidiary creating purpose-built low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites designed to provide new military space capabilities to U.S. and allied governments. Sta…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starshield

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Space Exploration Technologies Corporation, doing business as SpaceX, is an American spaceflight, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence company headquartered at the Starbase development site…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX

+ 4 more evidence sources

info

Claim 5: “its AI unit lost $2.5 billion”

SINGLE SOURCE

While the provided evidence for Claim 7 mentions the AI unit lost $2.5 billion in the CNBC cross-reference, no other independent sources in the provided evidence list confirm this specific figure.

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Claim 6: “SpaceX recorded a net loss in the latest quarter of $4.28 billion”

CORROBORATED

Yahoo Finance and another web search result specifically report a net loss of $4.28 billion in the latest quarter.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — SpaceX Starbase, previously known as SpaceX South Texas Launch Site and SpaceX private launch site, is an industrial complex and rocket launch facility that serves as the main testing and production l…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starbase

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Starship is a two-stage, fully reusable, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by American aerospace company SpaceX. Currently built and launched from Starbase in Texas, it is intended as …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 7: “SpaceX reportedly targeting a $75 billion fundraise and a valuation of $1.75 trillion”

CORROBORATED

The $75 billion fundraise and ~$1.75 trillion valuation are reported by NPR, a web search result regarding the IPO target, and Wikipedia (which notes a final valuation of $1.77 trillion).

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — X.AI LLC, doing business as xAI, is a subsidiary of the American spaceflight company SpaceX working in the areas of artificial intelligence (AI) and social media. xAI's flagship products are the gener…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XAI_(company)

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 8: “SpaceX is expected to start trading on the Nasdaq in just over two weeks”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent sources (CNBC, BBC, Investing.com) confirm SpaceX was expected to start trading on the Nasdaq around June 12, 2026.

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web search NEUTRAL — SpaceX signage outside the Space Exploration Technologies Corp. facility in Hawthorne, California, on June 3, 2026. SpaceX is set to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SPCX.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/czj8dd0kyl7t

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web search NEUTRAL — SpaceX is expected to face high demand for its relatively low number of shares available, potentially leading to sharp price rises. That could change as investor enthusiasm dies down and more shares b…
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06/12/business/spacex-ipo-…

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web search NEUTRAL — Follow SpaceX stock ahead of its expected June 12, 2026 IPO on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. Get the latest SpaceX share price news, SpaceX IPO updates, and pre-IPO coverage of Elon Musk's private…
https://www.investing.com/equities/spacex

+ 1 more evidence source

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Claim 9: “losing $4.94 billion in 2025”

CORROBORATED

Yahoo Finance, a web search result regarding the $2 trillion valuation, and a Facebook post all report a net loss of $4.94 billion for the year 2025.

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 10: “Elon Musk controlling 85% of the voting rights”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 11: “its private market valuation of $1.5 trillion”

CORROBORATED

The $1.5 trillion private market valuation is cited by NY Post and mentioned in web search results as a benchmark compared to Morningstar's valuation.

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web search NEUTRAL — Key PointsSpaceX has confirmed a target IPO date of 2026.The company may reach an IPO valuation of $1.5 trillion.
https://www.aol.com/articles/spacex-ipo-2026-much-spacex-202…

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web search NEUTRAL — A staggering valuation. SpaceX has filed for an initial public offering (IPO) of its shares. Although it's only selling a portion of the company to the likes of us, the price of the shares Elon Musk i…
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy8d9e4lzv1o

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web search NEUTRAL — In absolute terms, this represents a loss of $2.3 trillion in market capitalization, coinciding with the month of SpaceX’s IPO, a flagship public offering of an era and an all-time record both in term…
https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2026-07-01/t…

+ 1 more evidence source

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Claim 12: “Its space business lost $619 million on an operating basis”

SINGLE SOURCE

The operating loss of $619 million for the space business is cited by CNBC; other sources provide general company history but not this specific financial metric.

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web search NEUTRAL — Elon Musk owns 42% of the outstanding shares of SpaceX and controls 85% of the voting power via his super-voting stock. SpaceX was founded in 2002 by Elon Musk with the goal of reducing spaceflight co…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX

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web search NEUTRAL — May 22, 2026 · SpaceX designs, manufactures and launches advanced rockets and spacecraft. The company was founded in 2002 to revolutionize space technology, with the ultimate goal of enabling people t…
https://www.spacex.com/

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web search NEUTRAL — Apr 23, 2009 · SpaceX designs, manufactures and launches the world’s most advanced rockets and spacecraft
https://x.com/SpaceX

+ 1 more evidence source

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.