Someone on Wall Street thinks SpaceX could triple this week

Cnbc · Aug 04, 2026 · 592 words · By Oliver Renick

SpaceX Stock Volatility Financial Market Analysis Institutional vs Retail Trading

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What to know about SpaceX Stock Volatility

Take this one with a big grain of space-salt.

Claims checked 10

Techniques found 1

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center100%

Right0%

1 source compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Take this one with a big grain of space-salt.

Why it matters

For weeks, the most popular contract among SpaceX options bulls has been the $330-strike call contract.

Common ground

The further the stock drops, the cheaper the contract's become, the less likely it pays off, and – seemingly against conventional wisdom – the more popular it's gotten.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this SpaceX Stock Volatility story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that SpaceX options imply a 14% swing on earnings Tuesday afternoon?
How does this story connect SpaceX Stock Volatility with Financial Market Analysis over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/someone-on-wall-street-thinks-spacex-could-tripl…

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 10 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 3

verified Verified By Reference 3

help Insufficient Evidence 2

info Single Source 1

cancel Disputed 1

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Claim 1: “SpaceX options imply a 14% swing on earnings Tuesday afternoon.”

CORROBORATED

Two different sources (#Mezha and a 'Deep Dive' report) mention options pricing in a swing of approximately 15% (one says 15%, the other mentions a 15% probability of a 50% move, but #Mezha explicitly states a 15% swing).

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web search NEUTRAL — Options are pricing in a potential move of approximately 15% in either direction for SpaceX shares, with a bias toward the downside, according to an options market analytics provider. SpaceX shares ha…
https://mezha.net/eng/bukvy/b950d826_spacex_options_signal/

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web search NEUTRAL — Track SpaceX stock price and see how investors are reacting to the IPO. Follow live price action, market sentiment, trading ideas, and the latest news.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-SPCX/

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web search NEUTRAL — Current pricing implies roughly a 15% probability that SPCX is up another 50% by September, while also implying roughly a 13% probability that the stock falls 50%. Turning to the dealer side of the eq…
https://nemosnewsnetwork.com/absolute-panic-deep-dive-inside…

info

Claim 2: “At an average price of around 30 cents per contract, or $30 per trade, the total open interest in the contract is nearing $20 million.”

SINGLE SOURCE

The evidence provided consists of search results for 'TotalEnergies' and 'Total Wireless', which are unrelated to SpaceX option open interest.

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web search NEUTRAL — May 26, 2026 · TotalEnergies is a global integrated energy company that produces and markets energies: oil and biofuels, natural gas and green gases, renewables and electricity.
https://totalenergies.com/

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web search NEUTRAL — Shop Total's smartphone deals, hotspots, and prepaid wireless plans covered by the Verizon 5G network. No data limits, no surprise fees.
https://www.totalwireless.com/

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web search NEUTRAL — TOTAL Tools is a one-stop solution with full range of professional tools. Shop TOTAL power tools, hand tools, power source, garden tools, accessories and cordless tools with 20V lithium-ion battery pl…
https://www.totalbusiness.com/

verified

Claim 3: “Right now there are more than 450,000 open positions on the call at this strike expiring Friday, at least seven times as many as the next most popular contract, according to a CNBC analysis of option-flow data from multiple providers.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided evidence for this claim consists of dictionary definitions of the word 'there' and general SpaceX launch history. There is no data regarding option-flow, strike prices, or open positions.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — As of August 8, 2026, rockets from the Falcon 9 family have been launched 687 times, with 684 full mission successes, two mission failures during launch, one mission failure before launch, and one par…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_He…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — As of July 24, 2026, the SpaceX Starship has been launched 13 times, with 8 successes and 5 failures. SpaceX has developed Starship with the intention of lowering launch costs using economies of scale…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Dragon 2 is a class of partially reusable spacecraft developed, manufactured, and operated by the American space company SpaceX for flights to the International Space Station (ISS) and private spacefl…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon_2

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 4: “SpaceX... [has seen] a 40%-plus sell-off since its high.”

CORROBORATED

Fortune Tech reports the stock tumbled roughly 50% from its peak, and #Mezha reports shares have fallen 43% from their peak closing value of $200. This corroborates a '40%-plus sell-off'.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Space Exploration Technologies Corp., doing business as SpaceX, is an American spaceflight, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence company headquartered at the Starbase development site in St…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Starship is a two-stage, fully reusable, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by American aerospace company SpaceX. Currently built and launched from Starbase in Texas, it is intended as …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Starlink Services, LLC is a telecommunications subsidiary of the American spaceflight company SpaceX, providing broadband Internet service in approximately 160 countries and territories. It also aims …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink

+ 3 more evidence sources

help

Claim 5: “Tidal Financial Group... manages near $60 billion in assets.”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided for this claim.

help

Claim 6: “the lockup period for SpaceX insiders opening up two days after [Tuesday]”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was provided for this claim.

verified

Claim 7: “The Friday $330 call was purchased about 90,000 times Monday across hundreds of transactions... totaling about $2.2 million, SpotGamma data show.”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence provided for this claim includes unrelated YouTube videos about Deutsche Telekom and general SpaceX launch data. No mention of SpotGamma data or specific contract purchases is present.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Starship flight test 13 was the thirteenth flight test of the SpaceX Starship launch system, using Booster 20 and Ship 40. During the initial launch attempt on July 16, 2026, the vehicle's flight soft…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_test_13

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 8: “SpaceX reports its first earnings results since its June IPO Tuesday after the bell.”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent sources (Fortune Tech, Benzinga, and a Wall Street news report) confirm that SpaceX reported its first public earnings results on Tuesday, August 4, following its June IPO.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Since April 2023, Starship has been launched 13 times, with 8 successes and 5 failures. The vehicle Starship when combined with the Super Heavy booster, also named Starship, has been developed with th…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_vehicles

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Starfall is space capsule class designed to return payloads to Earth from orbit/near orbit, developed by SpaceX. The vehicle intends to provide uncrewed, point-to-point cargo delivery of earth and spa…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starfall

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 9: “With an implied volatility of 133, the $1.5-trillion market-cap business is more volatile than anything in the S&P 500 with the exception of Sandisk, according to ThinkOrSwim data”

DISPUTED

The claim states a $1.5 trillion market cap. However, one source states the combined value of SpaceX and Tesla *fell* by $1.5 trillion, and Wikipedia lists the IPO valuation at $1.77 trillion. There is no evidence provided regarding implied volatility of 133 or comparisons to Sandisk.

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web search NEUTRAL — Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the share price on a selected day and the number of outstanding shares on that day. The list is expressed in USD millions, using exchange rates from …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_corporations_by…

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web search NEUTRAL — The combined market value of SpaceX and Tesla has fallen by $1.5 trillion since mid-June. SpaceX stock has dropped almost 50% from its high, while Tesla shares slid 18% after its last earnings report.
https://www.briefs.co/news/spacex-and-tesla-valuation-plunge…

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web search NEUTRAL — Ranking the world's top companies by market cap, market value, revenue and many more metrics.This is the list of the world's biggest companies by market capitalization. It ranks the most valuable publ…
https://companiesmarketcap.com/

verified

Claim 10: “SpaceX traded billions of dollars in options immediately after its IPO in June”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia and multiple web sources explicitly confirm that SpaceX had an IPO on June 12, 2026, which was the largest in history.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX, an American aerospace and artificial intelligence company founded by Elon Musk in 2002, occurred on June 12, 2026. It was the largest ever IPO, at a valuat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering_of_Spa…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — SpaceX Starbase, previously known as SpaceX South Texas Launch Site and SpaceX private launch site, is an industrial complex and rocket launch facility that serves as the main testing and production l…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starbase

+ 3 more evidence sources

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.