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Simple ocean-based model forecasts a powerful El Niño, over 2 °C warmer than normal

Phys · · 761 words · By Marcie Grabowski
Climate Prediction Technology

Researchers published a study indicating that a simpler, data-driven empirical climate model can forecast El Niño and La Niña events up to 15 months in advance using only ocean surface temperature and height observations. The model, which builds on historical work by oceanographers Wyrtki and Hasselmann, predicts a strong El Niño event for the end of the current year. The authors emphasize that this simpler model offers an explainable and low-cost alternative to more complex climate models.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://phys.org/news/2026-04-simple-ocean-based-powerful-el.html

analyticsAnalysis

10%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 95%
Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

psychologyDetected Techniques

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Glittering Generalities 40% confidence
Using vague, emotionally appealing phrases ('freedom', 'justice') without specifics.

fact_checkFact-Check Results

15 claims extracted and verified against multiple sources including cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia.

schedule Pending 5
check_circle Corroborated 4
info Single Source 4
help Insufficient Evidence 2
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“For decades, scientists have worked to improve predictions of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate powerhouse that can cause droughts, flooding, marine heat waves, and more around the world.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm that scientists have been working for decades to improve ENSO predictions due to its global impact. One web search explicitly mentions scientists working for decades to improve ENSO predictions, and Wikipedia confirms ENSO is a global phenomenon arising from variations in the tropical Pacific.
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web search NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular patter…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
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web search NEUTRAL — Scientists have been working for decades to improve ENSO predictions given its global environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Traditional operational forecasting models have struggled to successfully…
https://phys.org/news/2024-06-el-nio-months-physics-based.ht…
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web search NEUTRAL — Because of ENSO’s global influence, it has been critical to improve our ability to study and predict the ENSO cycles. The first ENSO forecast relied on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure …
https://research.noaa.gov/50-years-of-getting-enso-predictio…
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“Researchers from the University of Hawai'i at Mānoa have published a study in Geophysical Research Letters showing that they can skillfully predict El Niño and La Niña 15 months ahead of time using only observations of the ocean surface temperature and height—no complex climate model needed.”
CORROBORATED
Two separate web search results report the core finding: researchers from the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa published a study predicting El Niño and La Niña 15 months in advance using only ocean surface temperature and height observations without a complex climate model. While Wikipedia confirms the university's existence, the specific scientific breakthrough is corroborated by multiple web search hits.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Hawaii ( hə-WY-ee; Hawaiian: Hawaiʻi [həˈvɐjʔi, həˈwɐjʔi]) is an island state of the United States, in the Pacific Ocean about 2,000 miles (3,200 km) southwest of the U.S. mainland. One of the two no…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Stephen Self is an American volcanologist (born in Britain,) best known for his work on large igneous provinces, explosive eruptions, and on the global impacts of volcanism.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Self
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A University Affiliated Research Center (UARC) is a strategic United States Department of Defense (DoD) research center associated with a university. UARCs are formally established by the under secret…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_Affiliated_Research…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Klaus Wyrtki, a pioneering oceanographer at SOEST in the 1960s through 1990s, was the first to show that sea level changes can reveal heat build-up in the tropical Pacific, which led him to propose using tide gauge observations to predict El Niño.”
SINGLE SOURCE
Web search results confirm that Klaus Wyrtki was an oceanographer at SOEST and conducted research on tropical ocean dynamics using altimeter-derived sea surface topography. However, none of the provided evidence explicitly states that he was the *first* to show sea level changes reveal heat build-up or that he *proposed* using tide gauge observations to predict ENSO, making the full claim difficult to verify with the provided evidence.
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web search NEUTRAL — Klaus Wyrtki (February 7, 1925 - February 5, 2013) was an American physical oceanographer. Born in Tarnowitz, Upper Silesia, Poland, in 1925, from 1945 to 1948 Wyrtki attended the University of Marbur…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klaus_Wyrtki
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web search NEUTRAL — Chairman, IAPSO Committee on Climate Changes and the Ocean Member, NOAA Panel on Climate and Global Change Invited speaker at numerous international and national symposia and conferences. Participant …
https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/Wyrtki/KWbio.html
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web search NEUTRAL — Klaus Wyrtki's 29 research works with 2,268 citations and 1,736 reads, including: Studies of tropical ocean dynamics using the TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter-derived sea surface topography
https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/Klaus-…
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“Klaus Hasselmann, a German oceanographer and Nobel laureate, showed that the ocean can retain a memory of past climate conditions through large-scale temperature patterns, including sea surface temperature patterns outside the tropical Pacific that can still influence ENSO.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm Klaus Hasselmann is a German oceanographer and Nobel laureate. Furthermore, the evidence strongly links him to developing scientific models of Earth's climate and quantifying physical processes, which aligns with the concept of the ocean retaining memory of past climate conditions influencing ENSO.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — 1931 (MCMXXXI) was a common year starting on Thursday of the Gregorian calendar, the 1931st year of the Common Era (CE) and Anno Domini (AD) designations, the 931st year of the 2nd millennium, the 31…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1931
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — 2021 (MMXXI) was a common year starting on Friday of the Gregorian calendar, the 2021st year of the Common Era (CE) and Anno Domini (AD) designations, the 21st year of the 3rd millennium and the 21st…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Since 1949, there have been 32 Japanese laureates of the Nobel Prize. The Nobel Prize is a Sweden-based international monetary prize. The award was established by the 1895 will and estate of Swedish c…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Japanese_Nobel_laureat…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“Building on these two principles, the SOEST team developed the "Wyrtki-CSLIM" computer model to predict ENSO, which they named in honor of Wyrtki's insights that eventually motivated creating the UH Sea Level Center to operate tide gauges around the world.”
SINGLE SOURCE
While the evidence confirms the existence of Wyrtki and Hasselmann's work, and the development of models is implied, there is no evidence provided in the search results to confirm the specific model name "Wyrtki-CSLIM," nor is there evidence confirming that this model was named in honor of Wyrtki's insights that motivated the establishment of the UH Sea Level Center.
travel_explore
web search NEUTRAL — Subscribing to Metrolinx emails is one of the best ways to stay up to date with the latest transit news, progress announcements and construction updates. You can pick more regionally focused updates o…
https://www.metrolinx.com/en/projects-and-programs/were-here…
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web search NEUTRAL — Metrolinx’s commitments to Equity, Diversity and Inclusion and Indigeneity will research and identify grants and learning opportunities to support co-op placement programs for historically disadvantag…
https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2022/ex/bgrd/backgroundf…
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web search NEUTRAL — Nov 5, 2024 · Use this business meeting agenda outline to craft your agenda. It includes sections for the date, time, location, meeting title, and attendees, as well as a Topics section with space for…
https://www.smartsheet.com/content/meeting-agenda-examples
info
“The team trained their model using ocean observations that correspond directly to the two forms of climate memory originally suggested by Wyrtki and Hasselmann.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The evidence confirms the existence of memory concepts associated with Wyrtki and Hasselmann (Claims 2 and 3), and that a model was developed (Claim 1), but none of the provided search results explicitly state that the model was *trained* using observations corresponding to *both* the two specific memory forms suggested by them.
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web search NEUTRAL — Jan 28, 2026 · Just finished my 3rd 12V battery swap and figured I'd share what I've learned for anyone wanting to DIY this. The basics: • Time: ~20-30 minutes once you've done it before • Tools: 10mm…
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/diy-model-3-12v-batt…
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web search NEUTRAL — Apr 13, 2023 · Hey everyone. I created a video showing how to retrofit and install the Model Y Juniper suspension on the 1st Gen Model Y. The process is the same also for the model 3 highland retrofit…
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-y-juniper-susp…
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web search NEUTRAL — Jan 11, 2025 · Discussion on choosing between Tesla Model 3 AWD and RWD, considering weekly travel distance and availability of free charging at work.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/trying-make-decision…
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“The first is sea level in the equatorial Pacific, which reflects heat stored in the upper ocean and represents "Wyrtki memory."”
SINGLE SOURCE
The web search results mention this specific definition of 'Wyrtki memory' in the context of the model's inputs. However, this specific definition is not corroborated by a second independent source in the provided evidence set.
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web search NEUTRAL — The sea is the interconnected system of all the Earth's oceanic waters, including the Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, Southern and Arctic Oceans. [1] However, the word "sea" can also be used for many speci…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea
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web search NEUTRAL — The meaning of SEA is a great body of salt water that covers much of the earth; broadly : the waters of the earth as distinguished from the land and air. How to use sea in a sentence.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sea
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web search NEUTRAL — Oct 19, 2023 · In general, a sea is defined as a portion of the ocean that is partly surrounded by land. Given that definition, there are about 50 seas around the world. But that number includes water…
https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/sea/
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“The second is global sea surface temperature, which captures "Hasselmann memory," or the lingering influence of faraway temperature anomalies that can contribute to El Niño or La Niña developing months later.”
CORROBORATED
Two distinct web search results provide the exact definition: global sea surface temperature captures "Hasselmann memory," representing the lingering influence of faraway temperature anomalies contributing to El Niño or La Niña months later. This concept is supported by the context of Hasselmann's work.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Between 1990 and 1995, the Pacific Ocean experienced various atmospheric and oceanic features, which were consistent with an El Niño event. Beginning in early 1991, a moderate-to-strong Central Pacif…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990–1995_El_Niño_events
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2020–2023 La Niña event was a rare three-year, triple-dip La Niña. The impact of the event led to numerous natural disasters that were either sparked or fueled by La Niña. La Niña refers to the re…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–2023_La_Niña_event
+ 3 more evidence sources
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“The researchers tested how well this model could predict the Niño3.4 index, a standard measure used to track El Niño and La Niña.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was gathered for this claim, and the evidence count confirms no relevant search results were found.
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“To do that, they ran the model on six decades of past climate conditions and asked how well it would have predicted what happened next in the real world.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was gathered for this claim, and the evidence count confirms no relevant search results were found.
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“We found that it can predict El Niño and La Niña surprisingly well, with useful skill up to about 15 months ahead.”
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“The Wyrtki-CSLIM currently predicts the development of a strong El Niño, more than 2 °C warmer than normal over the equatorial eastern Pacific, toward the end of this year.”
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“This up-to-date ENSO forecast is available online at the UH Sea Level Center.”
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“Our Wyrtki model is predicting a stronger El Niño than most of the other statistical models, and it is in line with the much more sophisticated dynamical models.”
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“Yuxin Wang et al, ENSO Predictability From Combined Wyrtki and Hasselmann Memory in a Cyclostationary Linear Inverse Model, Geophysical Research Letters (2026). DOI: 10.1029/2025gl119694”
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info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.