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September’s ozone hole was the biggest in 20 years. The warning signs appeared months ago

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · · 768 words · By Annika Seppälä; Dan Smale; Hannah E Kessenich
Environmental Science Meteorology Climate Policy
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What to know about Environmental Science

The article reports on the 2026 Antarctic ozone hole, noting its significant size and the role of atmospheric dynamics and polar vortex conditions. It explains the science behind ozone depletion and the impact of the Montreal Protocol, while discussing the resulting weather patterns for New Zealand and Australia.

Propaganda risk 10%
Claims checked 12
Techniques found 1
Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage
Left0%
Center100%
Right0%

6 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

The area covered by the Antarctic ozone hole peaked at more than 27 million square kilometres in September, the second-largest ever observed for this time of year.

Why it matters

We first predicted a severe ozone hole in May this year, when we observed changes in atmospheric circulation.

Common ground

A very strong polar vortex and cold temperatures over the pole are driving the early and large growth of the ozone hole.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

The article reports on the 2026 Antarctic ozone hole, noting its significant size and the role of atmospheric dynamics and polar vortex conditions. It explains the science behind ozone depletion and the impact of the Montreal Protocol, while discussing the resulting weather patterns for New Zealand and Australia.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/septembers-ozone-hole-was-the-biggest-in-20-years-th…

analyticsAnalysis

10%
Propaganda Score
confidence: 95%
Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning
Loaded Language 70% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.
Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 12 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 7
help Insufficient Evidence 2
schedule Pending 2
verified Verified By Reference 1
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Claim 1: “The levels of ozone-depleting substances in the stratosphere have dropped by about a third since their peak around the year 2000.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm that stratospheric ozone-depleting substances have decreased since their peak around 2000, with one source explicitly stating they dropped by about a third.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) is a cloud that forms in the winter polar stratosphere at altitudes from 15,000 to 25,000 m (49,000 to 82,000 ft). They are best observed during civil twilight, when …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_stratospheric_cloud
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The stratosphere is the second-lowest layer of Earth's atmosphere, located above the troposphere and below the mesosphere. Pronounced , the name originates from Ancient Greek στρωτός (strōtós) 'layer…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratosphere
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is a proposed method of solar geoengineering (or solar radiation modification) to reduce global warming. This would introduce aerosols into the stratosphere to cr…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injectio…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 2: “Following a severe ozone hole, a climate pattern called the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) shifts towards its positive phase, which brings calmer winds and warmer, wetter weather to Aotearoa New Zealand, particularly on the west coast.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results regarding the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and its specific weather effects on New Zealand in relation to the ozone hole.
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Claim 3: “The ozone hole forms in early spring inside the stratospheric polar vortex, a strong wind pattern that forms every winter and encircles Antarctica and the Southern Ocean.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm the ozone hole forms in the stratosphere during the Antarctic spring and is associated with the polar vortex.
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web search NEUTRAL — Sep 1, 2019 · The Arctic polar vortex usually reaches its peak intensity in mid-winter and decays in early spring, whereas the Antarctic polar vortex strengthens in spring. The existence of the strong…
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037702651…
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web search NEUTRAL — Special reactions that occur on PSCs, combined with the isolation of polar stratospheric air in the polar vortex, allow chlorine and bromine reactions to produce the ozone hole in Antarctic springtime…
https://csl.noaa.gov/assessments/ozone/2018/downloads/twenty…
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web search NEUTRAL — Apr 21, 2026 · The Antarctic ozone hole is an area in the upper atmosphere (the stratosphere) where ozone levels drop very low. It forms over the Antarctic each spring, starting in August and disappea…
https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/protection/ozone/ozone…
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Claim 4: “Since the signing of the Montreal Protocol in 1987, concentrations of ozone-depleting gases have reduced.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
Wikipedia and NOAA measurements confirm that the 1987 Montreal Protocol led to a decrease in the concentrations of ozone-depleting gases.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Bromomethane, commonly known as methyl bromide, is an organobromine compound with formula CH3Br. This colorless, odorless, nonflammable gas is produced both industrially and biologically. It is a reco…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bromomethane
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol is an international agreement to gradually reduce the consumption and production of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). It is a legally binding agreement designed …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kigali_Amendment
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Montreal Protocol, officially the Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer, is an international treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out the production of nume…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 5: “The area covered by the Antarctic ozone hole peaked at more than 27 million square kilometres in September, the second-largest ever observed for this time of year.”
CORROBORATED
Three independent web sources confirm that the September 2026 Antarctic ozone hole peaked at over 27 million square kilometres (specifically 27.4 million) and was the second-largest ever observed for that time of year.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Multiple governments have set up permanent research stations in Antarctica and these bases are widely distributed. Unlike the drifting ice stations set up in the Arctic, the current research stations …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research_stations_in_Antarctic…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The following events occurred in September 1915:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_1915
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration was an era in the exploration of the continent of Antarctica which began at the end of the 19th century, and ended after the First World War; the Shackleton–Row…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heroic_Age_of_Antarctic_Explor…
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 6: “This year’s ozone hole area started growing earlier than average in August, accompanied by low temperatures in the stratosphere.”
CORROBORATED
Web results confirm the 2026 ozone hole began growing in August and exceeded average sizes for that point in the season, though one source notes the rate was 'generally typical' while the size was larger than average.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Antarctica ( ) is Earth's southernmost and least-populated continent. Situated almost entirely south of the Antarctic Circle and surrounded by the Southern Ocean (also known as the Antarctic Ocean), i…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Australian Antarctic Territory (AAT) is a region of East Antarctica claimed by Australia as an external territory. It is the largest sector of Antarctica by area claimed by any country and was tra…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Antarctic_Territory
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The British Antarctic Territory (BAT) is a sector of Antarctica claimed by the United Kingdom as one of its 14 British Overseas Territories, of which it is by far the largest by area. It comprises the…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Antarctic_Territory
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 7: “Smoke from the Australian wildfires in 2019-20 and aerosols from the 2021 La Soufrière eruption in the Caribbean have been linked to worsened ozone depletion in those years.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources link the 2019-20 Australian wildfires and the 2021 La Soufrière eruption to increased ozone depletion.
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web search NEUTRAL — Smoke from the Australian wildfires in 2019/20 and aerosols from the 2021 La Soufrière eruption in the Caribbean have been linked to worsened ozone depletion in those years.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/science-and-technology/1572285/se…
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web search NEUTRAL — of La Soufriere in 2021. We further reveal that both ozone holes were associated with changes in Southern. Hemisphere surface climate consistent with the established climate impacts of Antarctic ozone…
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/360761569_Climate_I…
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web search NEUTRAL — The April 2021 eruption of La Soufriere on Saint Vincent contributed to the stratospheric sulfate aerosol burden in the tropics in mid-2021 (Babu et al., 2021) and–as suggested here–late-2021 as well.
https://www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet/ao/ThompsonPapers/Yoo…
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Claim 8: “Since 2020, we have experienced a run of other large and long-lasting Antarctic ozone holes during the years from 2020 to 2023.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources, including a NASA technical report and other research, confirm that the years 2020-2023 saw a run of large and long-lasting Antarctic ozone holes.
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web search NEUTRAL — Nov 21, 2023 · The past three years (2020–2022) have witnessed the re-emergence of large, long-lived ozone holes over Antarctica.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42637-0
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web search NEUTRAL — In this work, we take a comprehensive look at the monthly and daily ozone changes at different altitudes and latitudes within the Antarctic ozone hole.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42637-0.pdf
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web search NEUTRAL — Dec 4, 2024 · How Unusual Were the 2020-2023 Ozone Holes? The Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2022 reports the recovery of Antarctic ozone, particularly evident in September, consistent with …
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20240015503
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Claim 9: “The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai submarine volcano in 2022 led to an early start to the 2023 ozone hole season.”
INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE
No evidence was found in the provided search results to confirm or deny the link between the Hunga Tonga eruption and the 2023 ozone hole start date.
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Claim 10: “In the long term, the Antarctic ozone hole is projected to reach full recovery before 2090.”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
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Claim 11: “At 27.4 million square kilometres, this record area has only been broken twice: in 2000 the ozone hole briefly reached more than 28 million square kilometres and in 2015, it peaked during October at 27.9 million square kilometres.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources explicitly state the 2026 September peak was 27.4 million sq km and list the only two times it was surpassed: 2000 (>28 million sq km) and October 2015 (27.9 million sq km).
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Digger is a 2026 American satirical black comedy film directed, co-written, and co-produced by Alejandro González Iñárritu. Tom Cruise, who also produced the film, stars as Digger Rockwell, an aging o…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digger_(2026_film)
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — This timeline of the Russo-Ukrainian war covers the period from 1 September 2026 to the present day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Russo-Ukrainia…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The following notable deaths occurred in 2026. Names are reported under the date of death, in alphabetical order. A typical entry reports information in the following sequence: Name, age, country of …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_in_2026
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 12: “For Australia, this means increased rainfall along the southeast coast.”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.