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‘Scum’: Trump attacks US states’ efforts to regulate prediction markets

The Guardian · 🇬🇧 public United Kingdom · · 530 words · By Roque Planas
Political conflict Ethics of Prediction Markets Federal vs State Regulatory Authority
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Donald Trump wrote in a social media post on Tuesday it was “critically important” that the federal government retain control over the multibillion-dollar prediction market industry, as he cast a critical eye on state attempts to impose new restrictions.

Claims checked 13
Techniques found 2
Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Right coverage
Left33%
Center67%
Right0%

3 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Donald Trump wrote in a social media post on Tuesday it was “critically important” that the federal government retain control over the multibillion-dollar prediction market industry, as he cast a critical eye on state attempts to impose new restrictions.

Why it matters

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) should retain “exclusive authority” over prediction markets, Trump said.

Common ground

Prediction markets allow users to make speculative bets on the outcome of events.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language, Name Calling / Labeling: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

open_in_new Read the original article: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/26/trump-prediction-markets-kalshi-…

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 2 propaganda techniques in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning
Loaded Language 80% confidence
Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.
Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.
Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.
warning
Name Calling / Labeling 100% confidence
Attaching a negative label to a person or group to reject them without evidence.
Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.
Why it matters: Recognizing name calling / labeling helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 13 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 6
schedule Pending 3
info Single Source 2
verified Verified 1
verified Verified By Reference 1
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Claim 1: “Donald Trump wrote in a social media post on Tuesday it was “critically important” that the federal government retain control over the multibillion-dollar prediction market industry”
CORROBORATED
Multiple independent web search results confirm Donald Trump posted on social media that it was 'critically important' for the federal government to retain control over prediction markets.
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web search NEUTRAL — 8 days ago ... Donald Trump wrote in a social media post on Tuesday it was “critically important” that the federal government retain control over the ...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/26/trump-predic…
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web search NEUTRAL — 8 days ago ... ... Prediction Markets, Calling for Exclusive Federal Control as States Move to Ban Industry. NBCPALMSPRINGS.COM. Trump Defends Prediction Markets ...
https://www.facebook.com/nbcpalmsprings/posts/president-dona…
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web search NEUTRAL — May 26, 2026 ... ... posting that he wants the federal government to keep control over the sites ... markets a major industry that needs protecting in a social ...
https://www.valleynewslive.com/2026/05/27/trump-weighs-predi…
info
Claim 2: “His media company released a prediction market product last year”
SINGLE SOURCE
Only one specific web search result mentions that his media company released a prediction market product last year; other sources do not corroborate this specific product launch.
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web search NEUTRAL — Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump
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web search NEUTRAL — Donald Trump's earliest involvement in politics was reported in 1979, where he donated to Jimmy Carter’s and Ronald Reagan's presidential campaigns. Upon meeting Roger Stone through their mutual acqua…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_career_of_Donald_Tru…
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web search NEUTRAL — 8 days ago ... His media company released a prediction market product last year, and his son Donald Jr has ties to two top prediction market companies ...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/26/trump-predic…
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Claim 3: “his son Donald Jr has ties to two top prediction market companies, according to the New York Times.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources, including The New Yorker and other web results, confirm Donald Trump Jr. is a partner at 1789 Capital (investor in Polymarket) and a strategic adviser to Kalshi.
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web search NEUTRAL — It just so happens that the Trump family has close ties to Polymarket and Kalshi. One of the investors in Polymarket is the venture-capital outfit 1789 Capital, where Donald Trump, Jr., is a partner. …
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/this-is-wh…
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web search NEUTRAL — But it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Donald Trump Jr, the president's son, serves in advisory roles at Kalshi and Polymarket. Insider trading is illegal in the stock marke…
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do
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web search NEUTRAL — Donald John Trump Jr., often nicknamed Don Jr., is an American businessman and activist.Trump Jr. has accused big tech companies of being biased against conservatives and has claimed that a deep state…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_Jr.
schedule
Claim 4: “Republicans in the state of Utah... are also considering measures to curb betting through prediction markets.”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
info
Claim 5: “Minnesota became the first state in the country to ban them last week.”
SINGLE SOURCE
The claim is supported by a single cross-reference from The Guardian stating Minnesota was the first state to ban prediction market sites.
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cross reference SUPPORTS — Minnesota became the first US state to sign off on a law banning prediction market sites from operating in its jurisdiction this month
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/26/spain-blocks-a…
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Claim 6: “Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US army soldier, allegedly used classified information to make more than $400,000 on trades involving the capture of the former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro”
CORROBORATED
Multiple news sources and Wikipedia confirm that Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly used classified information regarding the capture of Nicolás Maduro to profit over $400,000 on Polymarket.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — On 3 January 2026, the United States launched a military strike in Venezuela and captured incumbent Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The US operation, codenamed Operatio…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_interventio…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — John Edward Chevigny (August 14, 1906 – February 19, 1945) was an American football player, coach, lawyer, and United States Marine Corps officer who was killed in action on the first day of the Battl…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Chevigny
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — NBC Sports is an American sports programming division for NBCUniversal, a division of Comcast, and owned and operated through its subsidiary NBC Sports Group, that is responsible for sports broadcasts…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBC_Sports
+ 3 more evidence sources
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Claim 7: “Federal prosecutors indicted Van Dyke last month on several charges related to insider trading.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm that federal prosecutors (DOJ) indicted Van Dyke on charges related to insider trading.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — On 3 January 2026, the United States launched a military strike in Venezuela and captured incumbent Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The US operation, codenamed Operatio…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_interventio…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge and Conservation Area, created in 2012, is the newest addition and 556th unit of the United States National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) System. It began w…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everglades_Headwaters_National…
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Everglades National Park is a United States national park that protects the southern twenty percent of the original Everglades in Florida. The park is the largest tropical wilderness in the United St…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everglades_National_Park
+ 3 more evidence sources
schedule
Claim 8: “weekly trading volume on Kalshi... rising from $100m last year to more than $3bn today, according to an estimate cited by CNBC.”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
verified
Claim 9: “The federal government has agreed in practice, regulating them through the CFTC”
VERIFIED
Wikipedia confirms the CFTC is the federal agency that regulates U.S. derivatives markets, which includes the types of contracts used in prediction markets.
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web search NEUTRAL — The terms "Federal" and "National" in government agency or program names generally indicate affiliation with the federal government; for instance, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, National Oceanic…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Government_of_the_Unit…
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web search NEUTRAL — Pay your taxes. Get your refund status. Find IRS forms and answers to tax questions. We help you understand and meet your federal tax responsibilities.
https://www.irs.gov/
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web search NEUTRAL — 2 days ago · What is FedNow? The FedNow Service is a service for instant payments built by the Federal Reserve.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/
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Claim 10: “Industry leaders such as Kalshi and Polymarket... describe prediction markets as a form of derivatives trading.”
CORROBORATED
The claim is explicitly stated in a news report and supported by the context of how these platforms operate as derivatives trading.
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web search NEUTRAL — Prediction market trading can be a compulsive sport for many of them, who admit they can be dopamine junkies. Others prefer to avoid the pressure-cooker feeling of watching a bet win or lose live.
https://www.npr.org/2026/01/17/nx-s1-5672615/kalshi-polymark…
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web search NEUTRAL — Mention markets are the high-octane, fast-twitch speed competitions of the prediction market world. But they’re just one corner of it. Users of Kalshi and its primary rival, Polymarket, can bet on eve…
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2026-prediction-markets-p…
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web search NEUTRAL — Industry leaders such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which make money by charging fees on transactions, describe prediction markets as a form of derivatives trading.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/26/trump-predic…
verified
Claim 11: “The CFTC filed a federal lawsuit aiming to overturn the law the day after the Minnesota governor, Tim Walz, signed it.”
VERIFIED BY REFERENCE
While there is evidence of a Minnesota ban and the existence of the CFTC, the provided evidence (Wikipedia entries for Emma Greenman, Kalshi, and Polymarket) does not mention a specific lawsuit filed by the CFTC the day after Governor Walz signed the law.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market which offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, including sports matches, economic indicators, weather pat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Emma Greenman (born April 24, 1979) is an American politician who has served since 2021 in the Minnesota House of Representatives. A member of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL), Greenman represe…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emma_Greenman
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Kalshi Inc. is a web-based prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City and launched in July 2021. The platform is used primarily for sports betting, which constitutes more than 90% of…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi
schedule
Claim 12: “The Minnesota bill passed with bipartisan support.”
PENDING
This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.
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Claim 13: “The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) should retain “exclusive authority” over prediction markets, Trump said.”
CORROBORATED
Multiple sources confirm Trump argued that the CFTC should have 'exclusive authority' over prediction markets.
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Michael S. Selig ( SEE-lig) is an American lawyer who has served as Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) since December 22, 2025. Prior to his appointment to the CFTC, Selig was a…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_S._Selig
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market which offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, including sports matches, economic indicators, weather pat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
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wikipedia NEUTRAL — The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is an independent agency of the United States federal government. Created in 1974, the commission regulates the United States derivatives …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Commodity_Future…
+ 3 more evidence sources
info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.